Vuelta a España 2022 Vuelta a España stage 4(Vitoria-Gastiez-Lagaurdia),152.5 km, Hilly

[tobydawq]

?? Seems most people are talking about Ala for this one, with some doubts about his form recently. Don't think "we" are "suddenly expecting Remco" over Ala, are they? Maybe I'm missing it...

I didn't read carefully, just noticed the usual endless Remco talk and wondered whether people had forgotten about his French teammate.

Admittedly, a very lazy and poor attempt to stir the pot on a dull rest day

 

[Red Rick]

Will anybody pull the peloton?

And why are we suddenly expecting Remco to be able to outperform Alaphilippe on such a finish? That seems rather fanciful.

Movistar, UAE, Ineos all might try it. Maybe Jumbo helps if other teams help. But yeah the 2 main favorites probably won't want to pull it back or do all the work.

I think Evenepoel should be pretty fine here. Don't expect him to top 5 based on that Itzulia uphill finish, but the false flat run in should suit him and I think his positioning should help as well.

Roglic I think would be the favorite here if I didn't question his positioning here.

 

[sir fly]

I suppose we may find out who's not exactly razor sharp for the GC.
Should be an exciting dash to the line.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Having seen Alaphilippe struggle in Tour de l'Ain and earlier in the TTT, i very much doubt he is in form to win this. Roglic, Higuita, Hayter, maybe Buitrago, Almeida, Carapaz..? Could see an Alpecin jersey in the top 10. I don't think QS should want to work here, because i think the chances are Alaf will come up short and they would only help the competition gain free bonis. Unless someone wants to go from further out, but i don't think the course is hard/long enough for that.

 

[search]

Will anybody pull the peloton?

can't really see who.

Here's a better profile of the finish, btw:

https://climbfinder.com/en/climbs/laguardia-navaridas-errepidea

 

[Red Rick]

can't really see who.

Here's a better profile of the finish, btw:

https://climbfinder.com/en/climbs/laguardia-navaridas-errepidea

Definitely a lot harder than the stage profiles suggest. I definitely expect small gaps

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Landa said he will try to win, because the route doesn't go too far from Murgia and through Vitoria.

Could also be a good stage for Fausto to get away in a clever little move

Also thinking about Champuissin, Buitrago, Higuita, Alaphilippe, Yates and Rob stannard,

 

[hayneplane]

Stage profile looks relatively innocuous but being the Basque Country I am expecting the actual roads to be harder than it looks on paper. Could see a couple of fringe contenders lose over 30 seconds but expect a decent size group to finish within 5 seconds of each other. Prime Roglic would be the favourite. Could be a good opportunity for Higuita.

 

[Valv.Piti]

can't really see who.

Here's a better profile of the finish, btw:

https://climbfinder.com/en/climbs/laguardia-navaridas-errepidea

This is relatively close to Mur de Huy, and I still hear some Mads Pedersen talk. Goddammit.

Valverde ftw tomorrow

 

[Sciatic]

can't really see who.

Here's a better profile of the finish, btw:

https://climbfinder.com/en/climbs/laguardia-navaridas-errepidea

That is uncategorized? (Not categorized in the Vuelta site’s profile)

 

[sir fly]

Landa said he will try to win, because the route doesn't go too far from Murgia and through Vitoria.

Could also be a good stage for Fausto to get away in a clever little move

Also thinking about Champuissin, Buitrago, Higuita, Alaphilippe, Yates and Rob stannard,

No way they let Masnada sneak out.
It's not like he's Vermeersch or such.

 

[Red Rick]

This is relatively close to Mur de Huy, and I still hear some Mads Pedersen talk. Goddammit.

Valverde ftw tomorrow

Will be interesting to see if some teams ride because they completely misjudge this profile

 

[sir fly]

Seems fairly easy to misjudge the slope.
I suppose it stretches 180° left beyond the junction.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Will be interesting to see if some teams ride because they completely misjudge this profile

It will be hard to be more idiotic than Gilbert in 2012!

 

[Red Rick]

It will be hard to be more idiotic than Gilbert in 2012!

Which one?

 

[Valv.Piti]

I only remember La Planche des Belles Filles.

 

[houtdffan]

looks like about 1km at 8.5% for the final climb

Would seem perfect for a stomp, but his condition is uncertain. Same with Alap

Can Evenepoel go at 8w/kg over the final km?

 

[Red Rick]

Can Evenepoel go at 8w/kg over the final km?

Easily. 8W/kg for 2 minutes is nothing.

 

[The Barb]

The break certainly has a chance, but with it being so early in the race and so many teams being at full strength, I think it probably gets pulled back.

Ordinarily this finish would be purely a Roglic/Alaphilippe battle but with questions marks over both of them I'm looking elsewhere. I would not be surprised if Roglic just smashed it but for the sake of the race I hope this doesn't happen .

I'll be playing Higuita and Ayuso. Higuita's form is obviously strong and he has a very fast finish for someone of his size. But Ayuso (40-1) is the one who I think is really underestimated by the market. Obviously he's an absurdly big talent but I don't think the market adequately reflects how much this finish suits him. I think it's perfect for him and with it being his first GT stage in Spain I think he'll really want to make a mark.

 

[search]

with it being so early in the race and so many teams being at full strength, I think it probably gets pulled back.

ah, this has never been an issue in the Vuelta

First breakaway win per year:
2021, Stage 3: Taaramäe
2020, Stage 5: Wellens
2019, Stage 5: Madrazo
2018, Stage 4: King
2017, Stage 5: Lutsenko
2016, Stage 3: Geniez

but on Wednesday there's probably a bigger chance indeed.

 

[Tonton]

I spent a week in Laguardia in '17, I'm so happy for the town and its great people. Love.

Old Laguardia is beautiful, and the climb to get there is steep. The descent back to my hotel late at night after a few glasses of Crianza was rather technical but it's off-topic. I met great people in Rioja Alavesa and I hope that they host the finish of a great bike race, with a great final, and a great winner. So we all remember Laguardia.

After rest-day, some riders and DS err on the side of caution. A break will form.

For the win or for time, a skirmish will take place in the end, Remco will try something or Rog will, and many will try to hang on. Many teams will try to set their pieces and be there when it happens. And the road is not that wide.

I like good wine like the wines from Rioja, and a vintage Simon would fare well stage 4. The same can be said of a Valverde not too aged...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yea, Laguardia-Biasteri is a pretty town and this is your typical Vuelta repecho. Not quite a wall but tough enough, you might see things split by a few seconds but no more. Fine for where it is in the race.

As for it being uncategorised, it's worth noting that Valdepeñas de Jaén has never been categorised, and the final ramp into San Lorenzo de El Escorial was uncategorised in 2011 - both are tougher than this.

 

[The Barb]

ah, this has never been an issue in the Vuelta

First breakaway win per year:
2021, Stage 3: Taaramäe
2020, Stage 5: Wellens
2019, Stage 5: Madrazo
2018, Stage 4: King
2017, Stage 5: Lutsenko
2016, Stage 3: Geniez

but on Wednesday there's probably a bigger chance indeed.

That's an excellent post in response. Thanks indeed for doing the research and it does make me question myself.

I think there is a bit of a counter-point, however. The examples above don't always represent the first non-flat finish.

Looking at the first non-sprinters' and non-time-trial stage from the last ten years:

2021 - Stage 3 - Breakaway SUCCEEDS
2020 - Stage 1 - Breakaway FAILS
2019 - Stage 2 - Breakaway FAILS
2018 - Stage 2 - Breakaway FAILS
2017 - Stage 3 - Breakaway FAILS
2016 - Stage 3 - Breakaway SUCCEEDS
2015 - Stage 2 - Breakaway FAILS
2014 - Stage 3 - Breakaway FAILS
2013 - Stage 4 - Breakaway FAILS
2012 - Stage 3 - Breakaway FAILS

But still, you make a good point. I think it's pretty finely balanced.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yea, Laguardia-Biasteri is a pretty town and this is your typical Vuelta repecho. Not quite a wall but tough enough, you might see things split by a few seconds but no more. Fine for where it is in the race.

As for it being uncategorised, it's worth noting that Valdepeñas de Jaén has never been categorised, and the final ramp into San Lorenzo de El Escorial was uncategorised in 2011 - both are tougher than this.

Nibali didnt stand a chance. After that Vuelta, Antón never reached this level outside a few stages in the Giro of 2011.

 

[Big Doopie]

Stage profile looks relatively innocuous but being the Basque Country I am expecting the actual roads to be harder than it looks on paper….

Exactly what Dan Martin said on the cycling podcast.