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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 1: Fossacesia Marina – Ortona 19.6 km ITT (Saturday, May 6th)

From @Eshnar's excellent 2023 Giro d'Italia: Stage-by-stage Analysis thread: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2023-giro-ditalia-stage-by-stage-analysis.38851/#post-2828612

Start order provided by @search: https://mcusercontent.com/1334a3762...b233-0695374afbb8/Giro_01_Ordine_Partenza.pdf

Stage 1: Fossacesia Marina – Ortona 19.6 km ITT

Saturday, May 6th, 13:50 – 17:10 CEST

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Technical Overview:

The 2023 Giro starts with an interesting ITT, long (for stage 1 standards) and mostly flat along the Costa dei Trabocchi, on the Adriatic. Starting from Fossacesia Marina, the riders will just follow the coast for 16.8 kms, with no hills and less than a handful of curves in sight. This will end once they reach the second checkpoint, where the route turns inland to reach the hilltop town of Ortona (GPM4, 2.8 km at 2.3%). This climb consists of a ramp of 1.2 km at 5.4% before some false flat, first descending and then ascending again to the finish.


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The Climbs:

Ortona: GPM4, 2.8 km at 2.3%

Not much to add to what I described in the overview. It will get timed, so it will determine the first blue jersey and someone might try to save their energy just for this.

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What to Expect:

Pure power will be the deciding factor, as the route is mostly just a long exposed straight, and the final climb is not steep at all. Gaps might be quite consistent, especially if it is windy.

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Ortona
 
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Pure power course with no corners until they hit the little hill, looks great for Ganna, especially with the cross-tailwind that is currently forecasted (with a headwind, I think the Evenepoel threat would increase). Evenepoel to take 15-20 seconds on Roglic.
I can't decide if I'm pessimistic or not but I'm very bearish on Roglic' pan flat ITT and worry it's not overrated because most TTs he does are much hillier. I think he could easily lose 30s.

And I may have *** sources but the ones I use have a light cross/head wind.
 
I can't decide if I'm pessimistic or not but I'm very bearish on Roglic' pan flat ITT and worry it's not overrated because most TTs he does are much hillier. I think he could easily lose 30s.

And I may have *** sources but the ones I use have a light cross/head wind.
Actually it just looks like crosswind I never realised how much the edge of the Boot goes west/east as it goes down.
 
It difficult to go against Ganna in a flat Giro TT but I actually back Stefan Küng for this one. He is a beast in these 20-30 minutes TTs and on top of that he deserves to finally win a stage at a Grand Tour.

Remco could win this if there was a headwind, this way I think the third place its the most likely but he should still put 20 seconds into Roglič and Thomas.
 
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