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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia, Stage 7: Capua - Gran Sasso d'Italia (Campo Imperatore), 218 km (Friday, May 12)

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Gratemans

Gratemans

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Ineos might not have anybody strong enough on their own imho. They need to bring as many guys as possible, as close as possible in GC, as far as possible into the 3rd week, in order to play their numbers if they want to actually have a shot. Jumbo and QuikStep aren't going to let Thomas or Hart go, and if they did attack, chances are they would only expose their own team mates. And instead of 5 guys close in GC at the start of the 3rd week, they would have 1 or 2 at best. And on their own, that 1 or 2 riders aren't strong enough to deal with Roglic and Evenepoel, most likely. If they can get into week 3 with 4 or 5 riders, they can start forcing hands by sending multiple riders in the attack, who are all too close in GC to let go, forcing others to react and possibly overplay their hand too early.
If they were to set up an Ineos train, they would just be doing the work for Jumbo and Quickstep, so that's also not an option. For Ineos the current situation couldn't be better, they have no reason to blow their own riders up at this point, they would only shoot themselves in the foot.
Click to expand...
That is indeed their plan, but I'll tell you how it's gonna go down.
At the moment they're all "Let's keep Hart, Sivakov, Thomas and Arensman up there untill week 3 and then we'll strike!"
And you know what will happen between now and week 3? At least two of them will have lost major chunks of time. Be it bad luck, a bad day or others just being better, it doesn't matter but it will happen. And then they'll say "Ah, too bad we've only got X (and maybe Y) left up there in the GC. We don't have the numbers anymore to go into full attack mode."

Yeah, if they tried to attack today (I would've gone the Sivakov or Arensman route in that case btw) maybe they would have ended up with only 1 or 2 guys in the GC. But we all know come week 3 that will be probably be the case anyway. Better do it on your own terms and cause some mayhem in the process. And you know, they actually might have been succesful. I'm not saying there was a big chance, but it wasn't completely outside of the realm of possibility either.
It would have made for a more entertaining stage, they would have earned some respect, and Jumbo and QS would probably be in a bit of a panic as something unexpected always seems to f_ with the mind of the teams with the favourite(s).

Another thing; in week 3 they won't all be that close together anymore in the GC. If they had attacked now, chances are a lot of teams would look at eachother to chase them down. I don't think Bora or Bahrein would put in any work: they'd all be looking at QS and Jumbo. (Likewise of course with Ineos were Bora or Bahrein to attack today). In week 3, a lot of teams are already consolidating their position.

On another note, when you wrote this:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
If they intend to do what i think they want to do, it only makes sense for them to hold off as long as possible. Their best chances are to wait as long as possible, while having the most options to attack. The sooner they show their hand, the sooner all their other riders will likely get exposed.
Click to expand...
You were talking about later on in the Giro or were you talking about this stage?
 
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Tonton

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Gratemans said:
That is indeed their plan, but I'll tell you how it's gonna go down.
At the moment they're all "Let's keep Hart, Sivakov, Thomas and Arensman up there untill week 3 and then we'll strike!"
And you know what will happen between now and week 3? At least two of them will have lost major chunks of time. Be it bad luck, a bad day or others just being better, it doesn't matter but it will happen. And then they'll say "Ah, too bad we've only got X (and maybe Y) left up there in the GC. We don't have the numbers anymore to go into full attack mode."

Yeah, if they tried to attack today (I would've gone the Sivakov or Arensman route in that case btw) maybe they would have ended up with only 1 or 2 guys in the GC. But we all know come week 3 that will be probably be the case anyway. Better do it on your own terms and cause some mayhem in the process. And you know, they actually might have been succesful. I'm not saying there was a big chance, but it wasn't completely outside of the realm of possibility either.
It would have made for a more entertaining stage, they would have earned some respect, and Jumbo and QS would probably be in a bit of a panic as something unexpected always seems to f_ with the mind of the teams with the favourite(s).

Another thing; in week 3 they won't all be that close together anymore in the GC. If they had attacked now, chances are a lot of teams would look at eachother to chase them down. I don't think Bora or Bahrein would put in any work: they'd all be looking at QS and Jumbo. (Likewise of course with Ineos were Bora or Bahrein to attack today). In week 3, a lot of teams are already consolidating their position.

On another note, when you wrote this:

You were talking about later on in the Giro or were you talking about this stage?
Click to expand...
I pretty much agree, and to me it's Ineos playing analytics. Whether we like them or not, this is a smart organization. They don't seriously contemplate a win in the GC but if it's open up for grabs, Ineos wants to set themselves up to catch the bag. A podium has to be the basic goal, like in last year's TdF. On Sunday, many of the "contenders" will lose over 2 minutes, maybe 3, and Geraint may only lose one. Tao is the joker card if something happens to Thomas. 3-5-7 placings would be a very successful Giro if both Primoz and Remco finish. Ineos is not going for the win unless it falls on their lap.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Gratemans said:
That is indeed their plan, but I'll tell you how it's gonna go down.
At the moment they're all "Let's keep Hart, Sivakov, Thomas and Arensman up there untill week 3 and then we'll strike!"
And you know what will happen between now and week 3? At least two of them will have lost major chunks of time. Be it bad luck, a bad day or others just being better, it doesn't matter but it will happen. And then they'll say "Ah, too bad we've only got X (and maybe Y) left up there in the GC. We don't have the numbers anymore to go into full attack mode."

Yeah, if they tried to attack today (I would've gone the Sivakov or Arensman route in that case btw) maybe they would have ended up with only 1 or 2 guys in the GC. But we all know come week 3 that will be probably be the case anyway. Better do it on your own terms and cause some mayhem in the process. And you know, they actually might have been succesful. I'm not saying there was a big chance, but it wasn't completely outside of the realm of possibility either.
It would have made for a more entertaining stage, they would have earned some respect, and Jumbo and QS would probably be in a bit of a panic as something unexpected always seems to f_ with the mind of the teams with the favourite(s).

Another thing; in week 3 they won't all be that close together anymore in the GC. If they had attacked now, chances are a lot of teams would look at eachother to chase them down. I don't think Bora or Bahrein would put in any work: they'd all be looking at QS and Jumbo. (Likewise of course with Ineos were Bora or Bahrein to attack today). In week 3, a lot of teams are already consolidating their position.

On another note, when you wrote this:

You were talking about later on in the Giro or were you talking about this stage?
Click to expand...
In general. Doing a leadout with De Plus, Sivakov, Arensman... would basically only suit Roglic and Evenepoel more, so they would only be burying themselves. So that's a daft plan. What options are there? Attack. Who would attack today? Say Arensman attacks today, either he blows himself up in the wind and he gets taken back, and eventually gets dropped and loses time. Or they immediately get on his wheel. Basically, there was no winning scenario here, also because i think Arensman isn't strong enough to attack from a peloton where SQS, Jumbo, UAE... have multiple domestiques left. Now let's say they attack with their strongest rider (which would be Hart at the moment imho). What happens? He doesn't drop Roglic, Evenepoel, Vlasov, Almeida... Who does he drop? His teammates.
 
Tonton

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Sciatic said:
Just for the sake of accuracy—I know what folks mean when they say all the GC teams & riders are waiting for week 3 to try anything, but I do think some will try to go all in on Stage 13. Which is still in Week 2.
But the general point about the Giro being heavily backloaded stands.
Click to expand...
Back-loaded? Yes. Stage 13? The pretenders may try an attack in the last climb but not much more, I'm afraid. Otherwise, many riders will see it as an opportunity to hang on while others don't.

The gaps on Sunday will dictate tactics moving forward for riders who could get their best GC finish ever in a Grand Tour. and lesser teams wanting a good placing and return on investment. Defensive riding will begin. It's fair to assume that Ineos will stay put and eventually gang-up against podium threats.

If things go wrong for Roglic on Sunday, will he be (as we put it in the forum) The New Pogacar and fight back? I hope so. I'm not sure. It could turn into an Induremco show of force and now Roglic looks in the rear view mirror more than he looks at the win.
 
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Gratemans

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
In general. Doing a leadout with De Plus, Sivakov, Arensman... would basically only suit Roglic and Evenepoel more, so they would only be burying themselves. So that's a daft plan. What options are there? Attack. Who would attack today? Say Arensman attacks today, either he blows himself up in the wind and he gets taken back, and eventually gets dropped and loses time. Or they immediately get on his wheel. Basically, there was no winning scenario here, also because i think Arensman isn't strong enough to attack from a peloton where SQS, Jumbo, UAE... have multiple domestiques left. Now let's say they attack with their strongest rider (which would be Hart at the moment imho). What happens? He doesn't drop Roglic, Evenepoel, Vlasov, Almeida... Who does he drop? His teammates.
Click to expand...
I wasn't talking about attacking on the final climb btw. I meant putting someone in the break, or attacking on the Roccaraso. Of course nobody would let Hart or Thomas go, but Sivakov or De Plus for example would probably make everybody look at eachother and they wouldn't be chased down immediately (yeah I'm gonna backtrack on Arensman. He wouldn't be suitable for that and I think he's there to protect the GC riders that are still up there in week 3 anyway).

Anyway, I'm just trying to say that playing the numbers game is fine and all, but you gotta play it while you still have the numbers. Otherwise this will bleed out and we'll just get a Rem vs Rog race. Which will be very entertaining by itself. I just hate the fact that all other teams seem very scared of them and don't seem to think they even stand a chance. Well, I think they actually do, but if they're all gonna wait for week 3 they certainly don't.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

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Gratemans said:
I wasn't talking about attacking on the final climb btw. I meant putting someone in the break, or attacking on the Roccaraso. Of course nobody would let Hart or Thomas go, but Sivakov or De Plus for example would probably make everybody look at eachother and they wouldn't be chased down immediately (yeah I'm gonna backtrack on Arensman. He wouldn't be suitable for that and I think he's there to protect the GC riders that are still up there in week 3 anyway).

Anyway, I'm just trying to say that playing the numbers game is fine and all, but you gotta play it while you still have the numbers. Otherwise this will bleed out and we'll just get a Rem vs Rog race. Which will be very entertaining by itself. I just hate the fact that all other teams seem very scared of them and don't seem to think they even stand a chance. Well, I think they actually do, but if they're all gonna wait for week 3 they certainly don't.
Click to expand...
I understand and i agree that if they wait too long, they no longer might have the numbers. But making their move too soon and they will cut their numbers by their own merit without anything to show for it. They have to gamble and strike at the right time. I think they only have one realistic shot at playing their numbers.
 
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
I understand and i agree that if they wait too long, they no longer might have the numbers. But making their move too soon and they will cut their numbers by their own merit without anything to show for it. They have to gamble and strike at the right time. I think they only have one realistic shot at playing their numbers.
Click to expand...

So when do you think is the right time? By Sunday Ineos will have (very likely) only 2 people within 4 minutes and likely only one within 3.
And I'd guess teams like Bora/UAE/Bahrain would have reason to chase/cooperate if Ineos' option 3 attacks, so even stage 13 may be too late.
Frankly, today may be Ineos' time to use the numbers game. Even yesterday I was thinking of a scenario where they (try to) send Ganna in the breakaway then drill Calascio and have him waiting on the top to do his thing on the false flat with Sivakov/Arensman.
 
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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
GC guys not going for for various reasons (wind, soft climb, backloaded Route etc) is one thing but what really annoys me what pathetic mindset so many teams have regarding breakaways. Outside of Jumbo and QS who have the two clear GC favorites by far surely every other WT team should be interested in at least getting chances to contest for stage wins. No ambition whatsoever.

As for the route, like many said this was to be expected but I'm still always surprised how little possibilities the Appenines seem to offer. I mean the central part has mountains up to 3000m, yet almost no attractive passes?
Central France also has the issue of putting bigger climbs together but at least the have these steep finishes like Puy Mary, Puy the Dome, Mende etc.
Click to expand...

they have good passes. See the queen stage from 2009, which was a 7+ hour slog over multiple major climbs

We just don't have Zomegnan to use the terrain properly
 
Extinction

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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
GC guys not going for for various reasons (wind, soft climb, backloaded Route etc) is one thing but what really annoys me what pathetic mindset so many teams have regarding breakaways. Outside of Jumbo and QS who have the two clear GC favorites by far surely every other WT team should be interested in at least getting chances to contest for stage wins. No ambition whatsoever.

As for the route, like many said this was to be expected but I'm still always surprised how little possibilities the Appenines seem to offer. I mean the central part has mountains up to 3000m, yet almost no attractive passes?
Central France also has the issue of putting bigger climbs together but at least the have these steep finishes like Puy Mary, Puy the Dome, Mende etc.
Click to expand...
No, it's not for a lack of passes. You have Campo Staffi, Terminillo, Campo Felice, Forca Canapine, Grand Sasso, which, in theory, could all be ridden in one stage.
 
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Unterlenkerfahrend said:
As for the route, like many said this was to be expected but I'm still always surprised how little possibilities the Appenines seem to offer. I mean the central part has mountains up to 3000m, yet almost no attractive passes?
Central France also has the issue of putting bigger climbs together but at least the have these steep finishes like Puy Mary, Puy the Dome, Mende etc.
Click to expand...
The Apennines actually have a lot more options than Massif Central. They just have to be used.
 
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