Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? First rest day poll.

[Netserk]

Both list and order of options are derived from oddschecker*.

Pre-race poll: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threads/2023-giro-ditalia-who-is-going-to-win-pre-race-poll.38840/

*Odds have been updating while I made the poll.

 

[SafeBet]

Tao looks even stronger than he did in 2020.
And the team strength could have an impact at some point.

I'm going with him.

 

[HelloDolly]

I went with G

I think the old brigade will be up there in the last week inc Roglic

But I dont care really who wins as long as we have a real race and that looks like it maybe the case

 

[Netserk]

Before the race:

Remco, and I don't think it will be that close!

Everyone not voting Remco is a hater.

Intelligence would say Rogla.

Not really. Is it now that I should ask you whether I in the future will have to expect that you're a good poster in most aspects but when it comes to Evenepoel, logic flies out the window and there is a heavy bias in your posts against him (including a mocking nickname)? Or how does that work?

 

[Mayomaniac]

I was one of the guys who voted for Tao before the start of the race, so I'm surely not gonna change my stance now.

 

[Scarponi]

Before the race:

Crazy stuff

 

[Netserk]

GC:

1	Evenepoel Remco	Soudal Quick-Step	34:33:42​
2	Thomas Geraint	INEOS Grenadiers	+ 45​
3	Roglic Primoz	Jumbo-Visma	+ 47​
4	Geoghegan Hart Tao	INEOS Grenadiers	+ 50​
5	Almeida Joao	UAE Team Emirates	+ 01:07​
6	Leknessund Andreas	Team DSM	+ 01:07​
7	Vlasov Aleksandr	BORA-hansgrohe	+ 01:48​
8	Caruso Damiano	Bahrain Victorious	+ 02:13​
9	Kämna Lennard	BORA-hansgrohe	+ 02:37​
10	Sivakov Pavel	INEOS Grenadiers	+ 03:00​

 

[topcat]

I don’t know. One of Remco, Roglic, Hart, G or Caruso. I’ll go with Caruso cause he’s the only one I want to win.

 

[Netserk]

Unfortunately, the GC situation is very bad for big moves.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Before the race:

This is poor form, there are multiple posts in today's stage thread dunking on me for saying Evenepoel looked like he could underwhelm today and I'm not going out of my way to shame those takes either.

On topic - I still think it's Roglic, but I think his chances may have slipped slightly compared to the 50% I said pre-race. If we have a defensive race in the mountains, he's putting time into the Ineos guys via bonus seconds and little gaps in the last kilometres, just like how he took down Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta or more recently Evenepoel in Catalunya. That being said, if either Ineos rider is outclimbing him he's probably toast and he's also vulnerable to the numbers game. I'll say a 40% chance.

That also basically covers the paths for TGH and Thomas. I do rate TGH's climbing just a little bit higher, so I'll say 25% and 20% respectively.

Then Evenepoel's only path is recovering fully in the next few days,  and not being outclimbed by any of the above,  and not falling to the numbers game. That being said, he is still Evenepoel and still in the lead, so we can't write him off. 10% chance.

Finally, the lack of a proper climbing test so far means we can't completely rule out someone (most probably Almeida, Caruso or Vine) surprising us all in the Alps, so a final 5% goes to the rest of the field.

 

[Netserk]

This is poor form, there are multiple posts in today's stage thread dunking on me for saying Evenepoel looked like he could underwhelm today and I'm not going out of my way to shame those takes either.

On topic - I still think it's Roglic, but I think his chances may have slipped slightly compared to the 50% I said pre-race. If we have a defensive race in the mountains, he's putting time into the Ineos guys via bonus seconds and little gaps in the last kilometres, just like how he took down Carapaz in the 2020 Vuelta or more recently Evenepoel in Catalunya. That being said, if either Ineos rider is outclimbing him he's probably toast and he's also vulnerable to the numbers game. I'll say a 40% chance.

That also basically covers the paths for TGH and Thomas. I do rate TGH's climbing just a little bit higher, so I'll say 25% and 20% respectively.

Then Evenepoel's only path is recovering fully in the next few days,  and not being outclimbed by any of the above,  and not falling to the numbers game. That being said, he is still Evenepoel and still in the lead, so we can't write him off. 10% chance.

Finally, the lack of a proper climbing test so far means we can't completely rule out someone (most probably Almeida, Caruso or Vine) surprising us all in the Alps, so a final 5% goes to the rest of the field.

If toby hadn't dunked on me before the race for backing Rogla, I wouldn't do so now either.

 

[Bonimenier]

If toby hadn't dunked on me before the race for backing Rogla, I wouldn't do so now either.

Pretty sure you did the exact same things with polls in the past before so I call bs.

 

[Netserk]

I think the experience of Rogla will help a lot. I expect him to mark Tao and to not take time on Thomas before Bondone, maybe not even then. Perfect for him if Thomas is in pink.

But it would lead to a bad race, so I hope Rogla takes pink the coming week and that Ineos will throw the kitchen sink at him.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

After today's Ineos high I'm torn between Geraint and Tao, but I like Tao's interview style better. So Tao in week 2 it is.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Primoz is my favourite and Tao looks like his most dangerous rival. Remco's advantage is smaller than expected and there's a question mark over his form from this weekend on (he can still recover but who knows?). Thomas will be up there but I don't think he has what it takes to beat all his rivals and win the race (but podium is quite possible). If Remco keeps losing time in the mountains Almeida will be fighting for the podium (and maybe some guys behind him as well).

 

[Netserk]

It's also a good situation for breakaways winning all non-sprint stages, more or less.

 

[Gigs_98]

Can't remember a tougher race to call after 1 week. Usually something decisive has already happened before the first rest day, or we can at least still point to our pre race favorites. This time it's neither. The big four are all still really close and the pre race favorite, despite leading the race, has looked subpar.

I don't think Remco is out of this at all. His performances these last two days have been so much worse than those on stage 1 and in LBL that there is still hope left he is just recovering from his crashes and will be back to his best soon. His 3rd week performance in the Vuelta after losing time in the 2nd week is also a pretty good precedent for just that.

Roglic looked great yesterday, but todays performance was underwhelming to say the least. If Ineos didn't have the numerical advantage I'd argue he is the favorite, but even though he might be very tough to drop I'm a bit worried about how he can respond to a potential TGH long range attack.

TGH is the one I voted. He looked great this weekend, especially surprisingly good in the TT, and he has won a Giro in the high mountains before. The fact that he has a really strong team, isn't far down after the two flat TTs and has a strategic advantage by being in the same team as Thomas would make him extremely dangerous, even if Roglic and Remco are both in great shape in the third week. Right now it feels like things are really going his way.

Thomas I simply cannot rule out. He is right there in the gc and has the same strategic advantage TGH has. The difference is, I just don't see Thomas suddenly dropping the other three in the high mountains. He has usually been very good at holding on there, but we're yet to see "high mountain raid" Geraint Thomas and I feel like that won't change. As I said though, you really cannot rule him out. If he is the one attacking Roglic and Remco from far out with TGH sucking wheels, he might well win this Giro.

 

[Potomac]

Carthy because all the other choices will mark each other.

 

[MrTea1976]

Voted TGH like I did in the pre-race poll. He just seems to be on it. Ineos 1-3 with Roglic in the middle.

 

[Gigs_98]

Before the race:

What an utterly useless post. Dunking on people for picking Remco, even though that was a 100% reasonable pick, and one that might very well still come true. And holy sh*t, chances are Remco underperformed this weekend because of crashes. Yeah, those stupid members, can't even predict crashes smh.

Meanwhile your pick is currently behind British Hincapie and only in front of TGH because of yet another crash. Not only are you celebrating after one week. You are celebrating a 3rd place.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

My dream scenario right now is that at least two of the three minor INEOS contenders get into a big breakaway on Stage 13 and anything could happen from there. It‘s probably not gonna happen and we get a waiting game on that stage, though.

 

[Netserk]

What an utterly useless post. Dunking on people for picking Remco, even though that was a 100% reasonable pick, and one that might very well still come true. And holy sh*t, chances are Remco underperformed this weekend because of crashes. Yeah, those stupid members, can't even predict crashes smh.

Meanwhile your pick is currently behind British Hincapie and only in front of TGH because of yet another crash. Not only are you celebrating after one week. You are celebrating a 3rd place.

I think Red Rick's post in the pre-race thread was good. That it would be an open race.

I didn't highlight those who 'merely' picked Remco, then I would have listed everyone who voted for him.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think Red Rick's post in the pre-race thread was good. That it would be an open race.

I didn't highlight those who 'merely' picked Remco, then I would have listed everyone who voted for him.

"Remco, and I don't think it will be that close!"

Yeah, truly outrageous. Gotta show those losers.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

If toby hadn't dunked on me before the race for backing Rogla, I wouldn't do so now either.

So you're playing tit-for-tat? That's so nice of you. I'd say I'd expect better, but this is the internet so I'd be lying.

 

[Netserk]

Contador survived how many crashes in the 2015 Giro? Dislocated his shoulder. Suffered in the end. Still won like a champ.