Can't remember a tougher race to call after 1 week. Usually something decisive has already happened before the first rest day, or we can at least still point to our pre race favorites. This time it's neither. The big four are all still really close and the pre race favorite, despite leading the race, has looked subpar.
I don't think Remco is out of this at all. His performances these last two days have been so much worse than those on stage 1 and in LBL that there is still hope left he is just recovering from his crashes and will be back to his best soon. His 3rd week performance in the Vuelta after losing time in the 2nd week is also a pretty good precedent for just that.
Roglic looked great yesterday, but todays performance was underwhelming to say the least. If Ineos didn't have the numerical advantage I'd argue he is the favorite, but even though he might be very tough to drop I'm a bit worried about how he can respond to a potential TGH long range attack.
TGH is the one I voted. He looked great this weekend, especially surprisingly good in the TT, and he has won a Giro in the high mountains before. The fact that he has a really strong team, isn't far down after the two flat TTs and has a strategic advantage by being in the same team as Thomas would make him extremely dangerous, even if Roglic and Remco are both in great shape in the third week. Right now it feels like things are really going his way.
Thomas I simply cannot rule out. He is right there in the gc and has the same strategic advantage TGH has. The difference is, I just don't see Thomas suddenly dropping the other three in the high mountains. He has usually been very good at holding on there, but we're yet to see "high mountain raid" Geraint Thomas and I feel like that won't change. As I said though, you really cannot rule him out. If he is the one attacking Roglic and Remco from far out with TGH sucking wheels, he might well win this Giro.