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Giro d'Italia 2023 Giro d'Italia: Who is going to win? First rest day poll.

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Who will win the 2023 Giro d'Italia?


  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .
I am just wondering has Tao ever in his life droped Roglic ?I mean :), I fail to see how could he beat him

On balance i edge towards Roglic- however tef Tao i am not sure he has to ‘drop’ roglic in the traditional sense. Numerical advantage ‘could’ mean he just can’t afford to chase everyone down alone. We saw what a 1-2 could do on a Granon last year (not that i am comparing G/Tao to Roglic/Vigne but the same principles apply.
 
Remco is still the big favourite, but Roglic had a strong first week with a smaller then expected time loss & no real impact/time loss from the hectic sprint stages.

Thomas is where he should be if he wants to win and he also looks on, so it seems like he could be more then just the odd guy riding behind the two big names like in the Tour.

The surprise ist Hart. He was strong in ToA, but he looks like he can really challenge Remco and Roglic and I didn't saw that coming. I'm not sure if Ineos can make something out of that numerical advantage also with Arensman, Sivakov and de Plus close enough that they have to be chased at a point. They are the strongest team that's for sure.

I bit underappreciated in my mind is that a lot of peopel are still close in GC. After one week losing 2 minutes you normally say it's pretty hard to see that person really competing but the time gaps could be huge in the last stages with people in the Top 10 cracking left and right (+the covid/sickenss problem in the peleton). If you are on in the third week you could really change the race.

Caruso and Vine are my dark horses who could still be on the podium, but I also didn't expect Vlasov that close and Almeida is of course in a good position. Haig or Carthy already proved, that they can climb on a GC podium with big third weeks. They have to be lucky and on good form but it's possible. Lopez was on 2:34 at this point in the Giro 2018 and ended on the podium. if you are on the happy side of motivated split in one of the big mountain stages a lot is possible.
 
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Roglic and Hart for me at the moment.
I feel Remco should (if he’s good) try a raid in a middle mountain’s stage. He needs (much) more buffer before the high mountains. The last TT should be ok for him, if he climbs ok (as he can lose time on the climb if he takes time before the climb).
I honestly don’t see Remco defending this little bonus, let alone gain time in the high mountains. So something like fuente de should be in his overall plan if he wants to win this.

With regards to Hart and roglic: I see Hart as a better climber, don’t ask me why! :)
 
The last 2 stages convinced me to change my pre-race vote from Remco to Roglic. I thought he'd have 2 minutes in hand after today. But only having 45 seconds, and a whole pack of solid riders within 3 minutes means he's going to have to fend off attacks left and right. And I don't think he'll get much help.

My takeaway is that Remco has slightly underperformed while a number of others have done better than I expected.

The real wildcard is covid, unfortunately.
 
Remco is still the big favourite, but Roglic had a strong first week with a smaller then expected time loss & no real impact/time loss from the hectic sprint stages.

Thomas is where he should be if he wants to win and he also looks on, so it seems like he could be more then just the odd guy riding behind the two big names like in the Tour.

The surprise ist Hart. He was strong in ToA, but he looks like he can really challenge Remco and Roglic and I didn't saw that coming. I'm not sure if Ineos can make something out of that numerical advantage also with Arensman, Sivakov and de Plus close enough that they have to be chased at a point. They are the strongest team that's for sure.

I bit underappreciated in my mind is that a lot of peopel are still close in GC. After one week losing 2 minutes you normally say it's pretty hard to see that person really competing but the time gaps could be huge in the last stages with people in the Top 10 cracking left and right (+the covid/sickenss problem in the peleton). If you are on in the third week you could really change the race.

Caruso and Vine are my dark horses who could still be on the podium, but I also didn't expect Vlasov that close and Almeida is of course in a good position. Haig or Carthy already proved, that they can climb on a GC podium with big third weeks. They have to be lucky and on good form but it's possible. Lopez was on 2:34 at this point in the Giro 2018 and ended on the podium. if you are on the happy side of motivated split in one of the big mountain stages a lot is possible.

It is a marathon and a lot can still happen.

First week over and even if there was some "dull" stages, like there is in any first week of a GT, it has set up the race for a really interesting second and third week. The race is still very much wide open.
 
It depends on two factors. How good Remco will be and how Ineos are going to race. If Ineos do their usual choo-choo up the mountains then I believe Roglič will win. Evenepoel staying in the game will also benefit Rog because Remco (and Almeida) are the sort of climbers that just do their pace, usually no tactical games. So working with them can be good for Roglič against the Ineos team. If however Remco drops our of the GC game for whatever reason and Ineos start playing their numbers with the likes of Sivakov, De Plus and Arensman going up the road in hard mountain stages... then Jumbo simply does not a strong enough team to control that and in that case TGH might be the favourite to win.

Then of course, Remco might just find some god tier mountain form and blow everyone away in the third week. But based on what we have seen so far I say this option is the least likely.
 

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