Tour de France 2023 Tour de France, KoM Jersey Discussion

[rallybanana]

The different trends in KOM winners over recent decades:

75% of winners in the 1980s and 1990s finished in positions 2-5 in GC.
65% of winners in the 2000s and 2010s finished outside the top 10 in GC.
100% of winners in the 2020s won the GC.

 

[Finn84]

My estimation about the points available in mountains close enough to finish so that top GC riders have a change on them.
10 points in stage 5
10 points in stage 6
20 points in stage 9
20 points in stage 13
20 points in stage 14
5+10 points in stage 15
5 points in stage 16
20 points in stage 17
10+10 points in stage 20

That's a lot of points but depends a lot if top riders go for stage wins or do breakaways take the glory. Last year out of four big mountaintops (Granon, Alpe D'Huez, Peyragudes, Hautacam), three was won by either Vingegaard or Pogacar.

 

[RedheadDane]

The different trends in KOM winners over recent decades:

75% of winners in the 1980s and 1990s finished in positions 2-5 in GC.
65% of winners in the 2000s and 2010s finished outside the top 10 in GC.
100% of winners in the 2020s won the GC.

I think some would argue that having a sample size of three is... not very big.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

My estimation about the points available in mountains close enough to finish so that top GC riders have a change on them.
10 points in stage 5
10 points in stage 6
20 points in stage 9
20 points in stage 13
20 points in stage 14
5+10 points in stage 15
5 points in stage 16
20 points in stage 17
10+10 points in stage 20

That's a lot of points but depends a lot if top riders go for stage wins or do breakaways take the glory. Last year out of four big mountaintops (Granon, Alpe D'Huez, Peyragudes, Hautacam), three was won by either Vingegaard or Pogacar.

Col de la Loze (stage 17) is a 40 point climb according to the regs

 

[Pantani_lives]

There's a whole category of riders who can aim for a GC top 10 or for the polka dots: Pinot, Bardet, Martin, Martinez, S. Yates, Ciccone... They'll have to chose a clear goal, or they might end up with empty hands. In the past there were more big climbs far from the finish. Someone who's in the break on the important days can still win it, but it's harder than ten or twenty years ago.

 

[ZamlinusYoutubeious]

As a rider would you aim for a top ten finish or a polka dot?

 

[rallybanana]

A big two days of competition for the KOM competition coming up. With five cat-1s before the final climb we really need someone to step up and take control of the jersey, otherwise it will be staying in possession of the big 2.

Is there a chance Kwiatkowski would be allowed go for it. I always prefer when a KOM winner is someone other than the GC winner who actually wins some mountain stages in the race...like Majka 2014, Barguil 2017 or Alaphilippe 2018.

Under the old rules of double points on summit finishes Pog would already have an extra 42 points and be comfortably in the lead by now.

 

[D. Pecher]

When did the double points on summit come in? I think that mostly killed the chance of non-GC contenders going for it. Virenque always went for it as a matter of principle. I think the chance to go for it if you're not a top GC contender motivates riders to go for breaks more. But since the days of armstrong we almost always had one über-team that completely bossed everything and in my opinion that has had a less than desirable effect on smaller teams trying their luck It just feels like breakaway groups have less and less of a chance to succeed these days, let alone seeing a guy the size of Belgium, like Eros Poli hauling his bulk over the Mt. ventoux all by his own.

 

[Monte Serra]

When did the double points on summit come in?

There currently no double points on summit finishes, if that was what you were referring to. There are double points on the highest climb of the Tour, the Col de la Loze: 40 instead of 20.

I think the biggest issue is that the point allocation is not very balanced. HC climbs get too many points. 15 instead of 20 would be better in my opinion. And no double points for the Souvenir Henri Desgranges. Now the GC guys almost win the mountain classification by default.

 

[rallybanana]

When did the double points on summit come in?

2011. The 4 HC summit finishes all had double points. In 2012 there were 3 summit finishes which were all category 1. They also had double points. I'm not sure when they did away with that points system.

The Inner Ring | New rules for Tour de France competitions explained

inrng.com

 

[Earns1985]

Rnk	Prev	▼▲	Rider	Team	UCI	Pnt	Points
1	1	-	CICCONE Giulio	Lidl - Trek			88
2	6	▲4	GALL Felix	AG2R Citroën Team			82
3	3	-	VINGEGAARD Jonas	Jumbo-Visma			81
4	2	▼2	POWLESS Neilson	EF Education-EasyPost			58
5	4	▼1	POGAČAR Tadej	UAE Team Emirates			49
6	5	▼1	VAN AERT Wout	Jumbo-Visma			47
7	30	▲23	YATES Simon	Team Jayco AlUla			40
8	8	-	JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland	Uno-X Pro Cycling Team			38
9	7	▼2	HINDLEY Jai	BORA - hansgrohe			31
10	9	▼1	KWIATKOWSKI Michał	INEOS Grenadiers			30

This one will get pretty interesting on Saturday.

 

[RedheadDane]

I hope there's a tie after Saturday, so they have to attack up the Cat.4 climb Sunday.

Just to clarify: A tie between Ciccone and Gall. A tie between Ciccone and Vingegaard would probably just result in Vingegaard telling Ciccone to go ahead and take the point.

 

[ppanther92]

Ciccone in the pole position in the sense that he will not be covered at all. Vingegaard the favourite to take the double points on the last climb if he wants to. Gall a bit in between in my opinion. Can't move too much because of GC, won't outclimb Vingegaard (and maybe some others) if he relies on the final climb.

 

[Monte Serra]

Ciccone in the pole position in the sense that he will not be covered at all. Vingegaard the favourite to take the double points on the last climb if he wants to. Gall a bit in between in my opinion. Can't move too much because of GC, won't outclimb Vingegaard (and maybe some others) if he relies on the final climb.

There are no double points on the final climb. I think it will be close between Gall and Ciccone. Gall was able to get into the break yesterday, while already being 10th on GC. So I don't think it's impossible that he'll go onto the attack again in the Vosges. Ciccone will aim to take full points on the first four categorised climbs, but he is less likely to score on the final two Cat 1's.

 

[Finn84]

There currently no double points on summit finishes, if that was what you were referring to. There are double points on the highest climb of the Tour, the Col de la Loze: 40 instead of 20.

I think the biggest issue is that the point allocation is not very balanced. HC climbs get too many points. 15 instead of 20 would be better in my opinion. And no double points for the Souvenir Henri Desgranges. Now the GC guys almost win the mountain classification by default.

I would prefer like this:
HC/20-15-12-10-8-6-4-3-2-1
1/15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1
2/10-7-5-3-2-1
3/5-3-2-1
4/3-2-1

 

[Monte Serra]

I would prefer like this:
HC/20-15-12-10-8-6-4-3-2-1
1/15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1
2/10-7-5-3-2-1
3/5-3-2-1
4/3-2-1

Nice, but I feel that it slightly overrates cat 3 and 4. Especially cat 4 is usually not much more than a molehill in the Tour.

I personally quite like the categorization in the Giro. It has a larger gap between points for 1st and 2nd. So coming 1st on climb really pays off. And no HC, there's already enough inflation around.

Cima Coppi/Souvenir Henri Desgrange: 50-30-30-14-10-6-4-2-1
1st Cat: 40-18-12-9-6-4-2-1
2nd Cat: 18-8-6-4-2-1
3rd Cat: 9-4-2-1
4th Cat: 3-2-1

 

[Peter von]

Yeah. I also like the Giro system.

But yeah I guess the sponsors are really keen to get Jonas or Pogi to stand next to their logo and shake hands with the ceo.

 

[ppanther92]

There are no double points on the final climb. I think it will be close between Gall and Ciccone. Gall was able to get into the break yesterday, while already being 10th on GC. So I don't think it's impossible that he'll go onto the attack again in the Vosges. Ciccone will aim to take full points on the first four categorised climbs, but he is less likely to score on the final two Cat 1's.

My bad then. That obviously improves Galls and Ciccones chances.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

Stage 20 is going to be a lot of fun for the KOM. I'm also happy the Yellow Jersey isn't going to win this one most likely.

 

[Peter von]

Stage 20 is going to be a lot of fun for the KOM. I'm also happy the Yellow Jersey isn't going to win this one most likely.

will Bora let GAll ride or will Hindley join in the fun(for stage)?

I am also very happy that it goes to good riders that actually makes an effort to win it.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

will Bora let GAll ride or will Hindley join in the fun(for stage)?

I am also very happy that it goes to good riders that actually makes an effort to win it.

Speaking of climbers, what about Kuss looking for the stage?

I think Ciccone's goal is going to be to get enough points before the 2 Cat 1's so that effectively Gall has to win both to win the KOM.

 

[Peter von]

Speaking of climbers, what about Kuss looking for the stage?

I think Ciccone's goal is going to be to get enough points before the 2 Cat 1's so that effectively Gall has to win both to win the KOM.

Yeah Kuss is a good shout. Don’t know if he looked a little gassed out lately?
But that’s only to his insane standards. Keldermann might be fresher without those Giro legs.

I agree Trek will put Ciccone up the road and kill their entire team to drag him over as many climbs as they can manage. They’ll hope the break is just allowed to sail away so Skjelmose can compete for the win, but they want that Paris Podium now.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

Have to think Ciccone is the favorite here, no? I can't see JV getting any points before the final 2 Cat 1's, and Gall would need a good ride for a really long time to have a chance.