Tour de France 2023 Tour de France, Stage 1: Bilbao - Bilbao, 182 km (Spain, Saturday, July 1)

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675170156237012997

View: https://twitter.com/Cyclingfanfict/status/1675170156237012997

 

[SHAD0W93]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675170156237012997

View: https://twitter.com/Cyclingfanfict/status/1675170156237012997

Has to be fake, too much yellow.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think Vingegaard is programmed to do a pull when he's not on a climb and he's in the same group as Pogacar. Can't remember him ever doing so. The Granon stage is an anomaly in his racing style in the way the Finestre stage was for Froome. Really, it's rather annoying that not only half of the big 6 is on one team, but it's also clearly the half that races much more conservatively.

What part of "Don't cooperate with a guy that is gonna torch you" is the difficult part?

Basic cycling strategy should mean Vingegaard basically never cooperates with Pogacar on a parcours like today. Yates twins taking off is okay too. That's 6 bonis gone.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Simon Yates was in ~25th position at the start of the steep section:

Cheers for that, very interesting.
Couple of teams really messed that up a bit given their numbers. WVA way to deep, Bora also slightly below where they should've been given that they had good numbers on the climb before and in the valley. Same for AG2R but unlike Hindley O'Connor did look a bit bad before that already.
Simon Yates and Lafay really impressive given their positions there.

 

[Netserk]

What part of "Don't cooperate with a guy that is gonna torch you" is the difficult part?

Basic cycling strategy should mean Vingegaard basically never cooperates with Pogacar on a parcours like today. Yates twins taking off is okay too. That's 6 bonis gone.

If Yates wasn't in the picture, I think he should have attacked on the climb and cooperated with Pogi afterwards. Then he can suck wheel in the final km where Pogi has the most to lose if they are caught.

 

[postmanhat]

One thing is this could make KOM very fun. Lots of guys who would hang on in thinking they can top 10 in a GC just lost minutes.

Yes, would be so much better if every GT these days had a stage like this in the opening weekend. Accelerates the whittling process so that the battle for the 3rd podium spot is down to a handful of riders so much earlier. Can have two great races simultaneously with KOM field being that much bigger.

 

[theyoungest]

I was really baffled by Vingegaard. Contribute with Pogacar, he beats you in the sprint and you lose 4 seconds + you win time on the other contenders

If you don't and you have a group of 10 at the finish, there's a very big chance of Pogacar winning the sprint without you getting any bonus, so Pog get 10 seconds.

The scenario at it happened, Vingegaard still lost 4 seconds but didn't gain any time on others and lost a few seconds to the twins.
Now, it's highly unlikely that these seconds will be decisive, but you never know..

The problem with Van Aert is, when he's in domestique mode he's great, but when he's in team leader mode he's not. He makes all the wrong choices, and so does his team. They want to control the whole race, which is always harder to do than race agressively and let other teams chase.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

What part of "Don't cooperate with a guy that is gonna torch you" is the difficult part?

Basic cycling strategy should mean Vingegaard basically never cooperates with Pogacar on a parcours like today. Yates twins taking off is okay too. That's 6 bonis gone.

If he works with Pogacar and they stay away, he still loses 4 seconds assuming he beats Lafay and doesn't get gapped in the sprint, puts a bit of time into the other GC riders in case one of them surprises us all later on, and Yates doesn't become a more credible second card for UAE. Would have been worse in no aspects and better in some. Also, there's always the chance that they get caught in the final 500 metres and Pogacar takes nothing, in fact Jumbo could have pulled just enough to engineer that outcome.

 

[postmanhat]

Waaayyyy too many adverts though

That's a shame as cannot bear Kirby for more than two minutes these days, and was thinking of giving them a try again.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I was actually a bit disappointed in Pogacar because he didn‘t look to really have an attack in him on Pike. I thought Vingegaard still looked good there and that he could’ve attacked. Not a good sign for the longer mountains.

 

[yaco]

I got my wish with the Yates twins fighting out the finish - At the end of the day the strongest rider won.

 

[Netserk]

If he works with Pogacar and they stay away, he still loses 4 seconds assuming he beats Lafay and doesn't get gapped in the sprint, puts a bit of time into the other GC riders in case one of them surprises us all later on, and Yates doesn't become a more credible second card for UAE. Would have been worse in no aspects and better in some. Also, there's always the chance that they get caught in the final 500 metres and Pogacar takes nothing, in fact Jumbo could have pulled just enough to engineer that outcome.

In that scenario or one with only the two in front, he could plausibly even win the stage. But as the situation was at the top, Pogi would probably always wait a bit for Yates, and then Vingegaard is isolated against the two. Sure, that would probably not end worse than this, but the passive option offered greater control - if the Yates brothers didn't attack they could let some other riders go from the group.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I was actually a bit disappointed in Pogacar because he didn‘t look to really have an attack in him on Pike. I thought Vingegaard still looked good there and that he could’ve attacked. Not a good sign for the longer mountains.

I instantly thought that without the injury, he would have attacked all out, but he was just sitting in the saddle. I wonder if he doesn't really want to stand up and really rip it currently.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Vingegaard did the right thing riding this passive, not his terrain

Simon podium favourite if he doesn't do a Simon Yates, solo bridging that gap after being out of position was insane.

 

[Netserk]

I instantly thought that without the injury, he would have attacked all out, but he was just sitting in the saddle. I wonder if he doesn't really want to stand up and really rip it currently.

But his most devastating attacks on steep hills in the spring was in the saddle.

 

[pelotonIQ]

I was actually a bit disappointed in Pogacar because he didn‘t look to really have an attack in him on Pike. I thought Vingegaard still looked good there and that he could’ve attacked. Not a good sign for the longer mountains.

First day of the tour and everyone is fresh. Did you expect the tour favorites to drop each other on a 2km climb?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

That final climb, how much did the crowds influence chasing on?

In his interview Simon Yates said that his chasedown of the first few to get away was impeded. But he didn't blame his loss on that.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

That's a shame as cannot bear Kirby for more than two minutes these days, and was thinking of giving them a try again.

I turn the ITV sound off when the ads start, and turn Kirby off when ITV returns. But that requires pausing the TV for a few seconds at the beginning of the race, as TV is ahead of the GCN stream (bad news for you, RhD: you never watch a race really live)

 

[Salvarani]

I was actually a bit disappointed in Pogacar because he didn‘t look to really have an attack in him on Pike. I thought Vingegaard still looked good there and that he could’ve attacked. Not a good sign for the longer mountains.

Maybe saving energy for the longer mountains.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Vingegaard did the right thing riding this passive, not his terrain

Simon podium favourite if he doesn't do a Simon Yates, solo bridging that gap after being out of position was insane.

Asking Simon Yates to not do a Simon Yates is like asking football fanbases to not attack each other when facing the opposing fan base. Yeah, sometimes that will actually happen, but most times it’ll happen, Simon Yates being Simon Yates and football fanbases starting wars with each other.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

That's a shame as cannot bear Kirby for more than two minutes these days, and was thinking of giving them a try again.

Personally, I'd rather watch someone trying to sell me a funeral package than listen to Kirby trying to flog me his tea-towels, books etc

 

[Red Rick]

If he works with Pogacar and they stay away, he still loses 4 seconds assuming he beats Lafay and doesn't get gapped in the sprint, puts a bit of time into the other GC riders in case one of them surprises us all later on, and Yates doesn't become a more credible second card for UAE. Would have been worse in no aspects and better in some. Also, there's always the chance that they get caught in the final 500 metres and Pogacar takes nothing, in fact Jumbo could have pulled just enough to engineer that outcome.

You increase chances of getting dropped on that final kicker by a lot. You're also just pulling away from 3 teammates.

 

[Netserk]

Winning attack on Pike: 25 %
Winning attack afterwards (like Nibali in Sheffield): 15 %
Reduced sprint: 55 %
Other: 5 %

Favourites:

Pogi
Van Aert, MvdP, Vingegaard
Alaphilippe, Yates, Ciccone, Madouas, Girmay

Fairly happy with my prediction, I think it covered the full range of outcomes well. Okay, Girmay needed an extremely slow pace and just straight up to be better, but I had Adam Yates as my first pick for an attacker after Pike.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Good stage and everything, but to compare…:

LBL is 260k, 4200 to 4450 vertical meters, Remco won with averages of 41.2 and 41.4 kms/hr.

Today‘s hilly TdF stage was 180k, 3200 vertical meters, Adam Yates wins with 41.5 kms/hr.

I think we have to be careful. No need for too much euphoria: after all, the two strongest cyclists who ever rode a bike race on Basque soil did not sign in for this Tour: Evenepoel and Roglic.

I dare to claim that Adam Yates could not win any bike race in Basque Country, if Remco and Roglic signed in for the race.

Of course I‘m happy for Yates brothers, today - they both know very well that this was their chance, and they took it…

 

[Netserk]

You increase chances of getting dropped on that final kicker by a lot. You're also just pulling away from 3 teammates.

You stop pulling sooner if you fear that. Not really an issue, not with these legs.