46th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 17, 2011

[offbyone]

Chavannel
Horner
Shleck

 

[Sylvester]

Favourite Gilbert. After strong showings in northen classics should win.

Challengers:
Kadri. Suprise who might go well with an aggressive atttack/ Elmiger?
Evans. Might be off the peak performance. Shall be racing it for training for F-W
Anton. Great explosive climber.
Degenkolb? if Htc can keep intact and bring him up the climbs
Cunego. Prepared for these races and has won in training for Ardenees.
Rodriguez. Think Kolebnev will have to work for him
One Schleck.
Sagan? FTW in his only viable classic option until Lombardy.
Kiryienka. Great classy rider with experience and attacking instincts. Hope he wins.
VINNNNNNNNNO. Needs no explanation.
Chavanel/Devenyns/ Terpstra. Should try salvage something after Roubaix.
Gesink. Great climber and Rabobank desperate for a win.
Nuyens? better on punchy climbs. Shall also have N. Sorensen? Want to see how Majka can go too.
EBH FTW. Most likely team to challenge Gilbert. Look foward to aggressive racing from them.
Hesjedal or anyone if they put their mind to it.
Want to see Hermans go all the way. A suprise package who seems suited to steep inclines. Have a few options and Chris Horner too.
Devolder and Leukemans= desperate for a win
Taaramae. Hit a rich vein of form. Should have Moncoutie there.
Visconti?
Docker. They have a suprisingly good roster for this race.

Sorry for not saying teams. Should be an interesting race.

Degenkolb, Devolder, Devenyns, Terpstra, Taäramae, Docker and Kadri are absolutely no contenders. Anton is not starting (Samuel Sanchez is, but he does not like this race, I guess he won't come close).

As for the teams: Katusha, Lampre and Astana will have several cards to play with. Ivanov will be very motivated; Iglinskiy and Gasparotto should be approaching top form by now. Grega Bole and Gavazzi should be great helpers for Cunego.

 

[theyoungest]

Gilbert, Cunego, Nuyens, Martens, Marcato, for me.

Nuyens was crap on the climbs in Flanders. If Geraint Thomas outclimbs you, you're not going to win the Amstel Gold Race.

Cunego is a very good bet IMO. It's about time for a big win again.

Gesink has this as a goal, But it will take an epic good ride to win here.

He has to say that as a Dutchie (and I'm sure he'd love to win it one day) but this is just not his race. Too nervous, too punchy.

 

[maltiv]

EBH FTW. Most likely team to challenge Gilbert. Look foward to aggressive racing from them..

EBH is definitely not racing, he has 3 broken ribs. Amstel was a big goal of his though, and I believe he could've done well here. Anyway, the team Sky is sending is absolutely rubbish.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Nuyens was crap on the climbs in Flanders. If Geraint Thomas outclimbs you, you're not going to win the Amstel Gold Race.

Cunego is a very good bet IMO. It's about time for a big win again.


He has to say that as a Dutchie (and I'm sure he'd love to win it one day) but this is just not his race. Too nervous, too punchy.

I don't entertain any ideas that he will win. In fact i agree, of the 3 races next week, this is the one he has least chance in imo.

 

[la.margna]

Gilbert
Cadel
Rodriguez

 

[Cobblestoned]

Ah, the Dutch queen visiting Germany to promote the Amstel Gold Race

 

[jens_attacks]

ohh there will be such a battle on cauberg.

my prediction:

1.di luca teaching a lesson to the youngsters
2.gilbert
3.cunego

 

[Jamsque]

Di Luca looked real, REAL bad in Pais Vasco, I don't know why you guys are rating him.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nuyens was crap on the climbs in Flanders. If Geraint Thomas outclimbs you, you're not going to win the Amstel Gold Race.

Cunego is a very good bet IMO. It's about time for a big win again.


He has to say that as a Dutchie (and I'm sure he'd love to win it one day) but this is just not his race. Too nervous, too punchy.

Meh, he was already 3rd when he was 2 years younger and much less strong than nowadays.
I think he can definately win this on a good day.

Not this year.. think his form is just a bit too far off to improve so much from basque to here. He might be top in FW/LBL though

 

[la.margna]

Don't think he will race it to win, and it's not a profile suited for him, but who knows... Spartacus will also be on the startline...

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Van Avermaet.
Would make a perfect combo with Nuyens & Van Summeren.
But which Belgian-talent-without-a-big-win is left for LBL? Van Goolen?

 

[Havetts]

VdBroeck? Dont know if he's riding it though..

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

VDB is indeed a talent without a big win, but has proven a lot more than Nuyens en Van Summeren in the past. (yes I rate a 5th place in the tour higher than a victory in the Tour of poland )

Nuyens and Summie were talents who never could live up to their expectations. So is Van Avermaet. VDB doesn't fit in that...

 

[auscyclefan94]

VDB is indeed a talent without a big win, but has proven a lot more than Nuyens en Van Summeren in the past. (yes I rate a 5th place in the tour higher than a victory in the Tour of poland )

Nuyens and Summie were talents who never could live up to their expectations. So is Van Avermaet. VDB doesn't fit in that...

Summie was always a workhorse, Nuyens was always a whinger and Greg is onlt 25 and rides with balls. VDB should really have quite a few wins.

 

[roundabout]

to me VDB is the Belgian equivalent of Andy Schleck.

Doesn't seem to be in top form for very long.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Summie was always a workhorse, Nuyens was always a whinger and Greg is onlt 25 and rides with balls. VDB should really have quite a few wins.

Yes, I often forget how young Greg is. But nonetheless his last 2 seasons were a big fail, compared with his first 2.

But VDB is only 2 years older and already had 2 top 10's in a GT. But yes, he has a problem with actually winning something.

 

[LarsAU]

Nuyens skipped Paris-Roubaix to focus on Amstel.

And didn't Bjarne win Amstel in '97?

Nuyens for the win! (or at least podium...)

He's got the form, newfound confidence and people seem to continue to underrate him for some reason.

 

[Ferminal]

Nuyens skipped Paris-Roubaix to focus on Amstel.

And didn't Bjarne win Amstel in '97?

Nuyens for the win! (or at least podium...)

He's got the form, newfound confidence and people seem to continue to underrate him for some reason.

Well, it would have to be a repeat of RvV where many circumstances went in his favour.

Better than him in the uphill sprint

Gilbert
Cunego
Bole
Di Luca
Visconti
1 or 2 Schlecks
Van Avermaet
Evans
Samu
Gasparotto
Gesink
Hesjedal
Horner


Better than him in Ardennes style racing

Gilbert
Schleck
Schleck
Evans
Cunego
Di Luca
Ivanov
Kolobnev
Visconti
Samu
Vino
Gesink
Martens
Hesjedal
Horner

Maybe some of those names aren't as good, but no doubt I've missed some too.

It's not impossible, but on paper very difficult.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Greg FTW! He's old enough to start winning classics

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

Winning it twice only having happened once does have a correlation, it means you're marked more and in races like AGR that could be crucial because of how much competition there is for the win compared to other races.

Didn't Jan Raas win Amstel 4 years in a row back in the late 70's/early 80's?

Also the race isn't as wide open as it used to be when it finished on the flat in Maastricht when riders like Olaf Ludwig and Erik Zabel won it. With the race in its current configuration finishing on the top of the Cauberg far fewer riders will go into the race with a realistic chance so I would say it will become more usual to get repeat winners at a race like Amstel than it used to.

 

[theyoungest]

Didn't Jan Raas win Amstel 4 years in a row back in the late 70's/early 80's?

Also the race isn't as wide open as it used to be when it finished on the flat in Maastricht when riders like Olaf Ludwig and Erik Zabel won it. With the race in its current configuration finishing on the top of the Cauberg far fewer riders will go into the race with a realistic chance so I would say it will become more usual to get repeat winners at a race like Amstel than it used to.

Yes, the rule "no one wins this race twice" applies to the post-Raas era And you're right, the race has a totally different dynamic on the "new" course, although we've already seen a peloton racing up the Cauberg, riders arriving solo, and everything in between. It's not become a more predictable race, far from it.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert can win in a small group, solo and in a peloton sprint. So, that works in his favour.

 

[Anonymous]

Ive added interactive profiles to our page at Tsf (cant post these as they are in the forum)
http://teamskyfans.com/amstelgold.html

Click on a part of the profile image for detailed profiles for most of the climbs. (or if you have an extension for firefox or opera installed it shows the profiles when you mouse over the climbs)

 

[theyoungest]

Ive added interactive profiles to our page at Tsf (cant post these as they are in the forum)
http://teamskyfans.com/amstelgold.html

Click on a part of the profile image for detailed profiles for most of the climbs. (or if you have an extension for firefox or opera installed it shows the profiles when you mouse over the climbs)

Cool. Although... who wrote the introduction to the race? It's hardly complimentary.

Gilbert can win in a small group, solo and in a peloton sprint. So, that works in his favour.

Gilbert can't win this race solo.