47th Amstel Gold Race (The maze) - Sunday April 15, 2012

[Gloin22]

Have Henao and Nordhaug ever showed that they can be competitive after 250k on a very tough course?

I have my doubts about Team Sky in AGR. I wonder why they didn't let Uran be in the squad.

Uran doesn't like Amstel. said he wants to focus on LBL and FW. Their squad looks bit iffy, Top 10 would do them here imo.

 

[Trofinios]

It is easy to forget how well Rodriguez did in Amstel last year. No one could follow his attack on Cauberg except Gilbert, and he was well ahead of Gerrans at the finish line. And we all know that he is in excellent form after two stage wins in Vuelta Pais Vasco.

So, who can really threaten J-Rod if it comes down to a showdown on Cauberg? I see four possible challengers, two of them more so than the others.

Gerrans - Great form this year, 3rd last year. He won't be able to follow an attack from J-Rod, but could catch him when in flattens out in the end. Tactical rider.

Gilbert - Winner last two years after total domination in the final both years. Not very good form this year, but it might be improving. If he even gets near last years form he will challenge Purito. Cauberg is a perfect final for Gilbert and last two years should give him great confidence. Still, Gilberts form is uncertain, and he might not even be there in the end.

Valverde - Great season so far. He missed Vuelta Pais Vasco as a good build up, but came 2nd in Klasika Primavera de Amorebieta last sunday. Has the punch and speed to maybe match an attack from Purito.

Sagan - Super season so far, has taken the next step and really shown that he is already a great classics rider and a future winner. In a race under 200k Sagan would probably destroy J-Rod on a final like Cauberg, but in a race with 32 climbs and over 250k, it might be more doubtful.

Given form and sprint capacity on a final like Cauberg, I believe that Valverde and Sagan are the greatest threats to Rodriguez, with Gilbert and Gerrans just behind.

This doesn't mean that I think top 5 will consist of Purito and the four challangers, just that these four are the riders with the capacity to actually beat J-Rod on Cauberg. Other riders wanting to win should try to go solo or drop J-Rod before Cauberg.

 

[Kvinto]

I hope:
1. Sagan is OK after the fall in the Brabantse Pijl, it didn't look good when he slid into the kerb.
2. Liquigas won't bank on two leaders (in which I honestly highly doubt ).

If Nibali pulls a Vanendert 2011 for Sagan it will be hard for Peter to lose it.

The problem of Purito is that he should attack from too far out leaving the chase a 500-700m distance to bring him back on the steepness that doesn't suit J-Rod ie the false flat.

 

[Trofinios]

The problem of Purito is that he should attack from too far out leaving the chase a 500-700m distance to bring him back on the steepness that doesn't suit J-Rod ie the false flat.

I edited my post in regard to this, realizing I wrote something I didn't really mean. Of course J-Rod must attack on the steep section on Cauberg hoping to distance the others enough so no one will catch him in the end. So it can't really be too far out.

 

[Lanark]

If you drop people on the steep section of the Cauberg, they ain't comming back. Like I said before, on that part of the climb guys like Fränk Schleck and Boogerd can drop guys like Valverde and Bettini. Rodriguez should certainly be able to do the same if he has good legs in the final.

 

[Kvinto]

I edited my post in regard to this, realizing I wrote something I didn't really mean. Of course J-Rod must attack on the step section on Cauberg hoping to distance the others enough so no one will catch him in the end. So it can't really be too far out.

I question his ability to distance all of his opponents enough to win. IMO Samu is more motivated for Amstel this year and Purito won't drop him there and if Liquigas are ready to sacrifice Nibali for Sagan it'll pay off for them. I don't mind if J-Rod wins though.

 

[maltiv]

Have Henao and Nordhaug ever showed that they can be competitive after 250k on a very tough course?

I have my doubts about Team Sky in AGR. I wonder why they didn't let Uran be in the squad.

Henao probably hasn't done any races of this length (as far as I know). Nordhaug did a lot of work for Gerrans last year in AGR and was 31th, but at that time he had a flu and even had to skip FW. He's also been top 30 in Lombardia.

Obviously he has become a lot better since then, so logically he should be able to be top 20 at least.

 

[Trofinios]

Henao probably hasn't done any races of this length (as far as I know). Nordhaug did a lot of work for Gerrans last year in AGR and was 31th, but at that time he had a flu and even had to skip FW. He's also been top 30 in Lombardia.

Obviously he has become a lot better since then, so logically he should be able to be top 20 at least.

Thanks for the info. My hopes for Nordhaug reaching top 10 went up a bit.
I don't believe that the other scandinavians in Sky can do a good result in AGR. Nordhaug is our hope.

 

[Trofinios]

I question his ability to distance all of his opponents enough to win. IMO Samu is more motivated for Amstel this year and Purito won't drop him there and if Liquigas are ready to sacrifice Nibali for Sagan it'll pay off for them. I don't mind if J-Rod wins though.

You think Samu can follow an attack by Purito on the steep section in the final? Not so sure about that, it's 11-12% steep and Purito's punch in this situation might just be too much for Samu, thereby not saying that he can be close and maybe then catch Purito on the flatter section. Anyhow, I give a clear advantage to J-Rod.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

pippo the clown (according to el pistol which i disagree ) not starting to tomm, it seems.

 

[Kvinto]

You think Samu can follow an attack by Purito on the steep section in the final? Not so sure about that, it's 11-12% steep and Purito's punch in this situation might just be too much for Samu, thereby not saying that he can be close and maybe then catch Purito on the flatter section. Anyhow, I give a clear advantage to J-Rod.

He is stronger but not by far.

It will all depand on the group on the bottom of Cauberg, its size and who will actually compete. I'm looking forward to seeing Samu because he always peaks for the Pais Vasco, and rides the Ardennes on the remains of form so that he never really shines in the AGR. But this year he targets the Worlds which will contain the same climbs and this is a good rehearsal. In this regard if Samu wants a medal at the Worlds he should follow Purito's attacks on 200m-11%, this is not yet the Mur de Huy (which Samu rode very good last year considering his awful position).

 

[DominicDecoco]

Sooooo.. It seems like Eurosport's crush on racing cars every sunday is something we should get used to...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

sanchez will not do much in AGR.

The hills are too short for him there and he's not good on such short efforts. Maybe top 10 but not more

 

[El Pistolero]

Am I the only one that thinks the finish should be 2km after the Cauberg to make it Monument material?

 

[virandociclista]

does pistoleiro lose an avatar bet?

 

[Parrulo]

Am I the only one that thinks the finish should be 2km after the Cauberg to make it Monument material?

nope, with the uphill finish people tend to wait for the cauberg if there is some flat (not necessarily 2k) afterwards the fast guys will want to keep it together and the best climbers will want to attack creating imo a more interesting race

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

nope, with the uphill finish people tend to wait for the cauberg if there is some flat (not necessarily 2k) afterwards the fast guys will want to keep it together and the best climbers will want to attack creating imo a more interesting race

awful, just awful

 

[Parrulo]

awful, just awful

why awful? it would change the race dynamic for better imo, and while 2k may be excessive 1 k would be pretty much perfect

 

[Spine Concept]

Am I the only one that thinks the finish should be 2km after the Cauberg to make it Monument material?

Some of the pundits at Sporza mentioned this last year as well so they preceded you. Aside from that it's not an uncommon or illogical suggestion. Personally I like the finish on the Cauberg, but that's subjective and I can see why some people might want a finish beyond it.

 

[thegrimpeur]

I think people forget about Cunego, his form was rising throughout the Al Pais Vasco and he has won here before. I'm officially calling a podium in this one, then a couple of stage wins in Trentino before capping a bounce back week with a win in Liege. It will happen!

 

[DominicDecoco]

Michael Boogerd takes it tommorow. Mark my words.

 

[trevim]

Michael Boogerd takes it tommorow. Mark my words.

He'll finish 2nd.

 

[El Pistolero]

Michael Boogerd takes it tommorow. Mark my words.

I bet he sometimes fantasises he's Gilbert.

 

[Spine Concept]

I bet he sometimes fantasises he's Gilbert.

So what if he does? It's nothing to be ashamed about, any avid cycling fan, or any cyclist as far as that's concerned would have fantasied being last year's Gilbert except for - this year's - Boonen.

 

[El Pistolero]

So what if he does? It's nothing to be ashamed about, any avid cycling fan, or any cyclist as far as that's concerned would have fantasied being last year's Gilbert except for - this year's - Boonen.

It wasn't an insult, more of a joke