52nd Amstel Gold Race - April 16 - 261km

[Netserk]

Re:

The differences were huge in FW because nobody cared and the skill gap due to dope was bigger.

Fact is an asphalted hill of 1 to 5km is much easier then a cobbled hill or cobbled flat stroke where you need a specific skill set rather than pure power. So competitors stay together easier. It's much easier to ride wheel to wheel on an asphalted hill as well, so the factor of drag is reduced as well.

The difference is (also) that the best riders in the cobbled classics are also the strongest on the flat (at the end of a hard race), so when 3 riders work together, doms won't pull them back. Another thing is that it is often an advantage to be in a smaller group than a big bunch, since you won't have to fight for position as much and because of that you won't have a crazy pace before every hill, but can pace more efficiently.

The hilly races should be harder, so the riders with greater endurance won't get pulled back by doms, and narrower roads, so it isn't so easy to stay in the bunch.

 

[klintE]

Re:

Here are the odds. Pretty wide open race as there is no clear favorite

***bet:

And my bet is GVA and Kwiato in late breakaway.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

The differences were huge in FW because nobody cared and the skill gap due to dope was bigger.

Fact is an asphalted hill of 1 to 5km is much easier then a cobbled hill or cobbled flat stroke where you need a specific skill set rather than pure power. So competitors stay together easier. It's much easier to ride wheel to wheel on an asphalted hill as well, so the factor of drag is reduced as well.

The difference is (also) that the best riders in the cobbled classics are also the strongest on the flat (at the end of a hard race), so when 3 riders work together, doms won't pull them back. Another thing is that it is often an advantage to be in a smaller group than a big bunch, since you won't have to fight for position as much and because of that you won't have a crazy pace before every hill, but can pace more efficiently.

The hilly races should be harder, so the riders with greater endurance won't get pulled back by doms, and narrower roads, so it isn't so easy to stay in the bunch.

But harder in the middle part, or 30-60 km from the finish, with easier final part, to encourage the favorites to go on the offensive and make a race earlier. When the tough climbs are packed late in the race then favorites just wait for them and keep things under control until them, as we saw in the latest editions of the Ardennes classics. Good example is Lombardia in the last two years with hardest climbs fairly far from the finish. I'm really curious how will unfold this years Amstel, I'm a bit optimistic and think it will be a change for the better.

 

[Netserk]

Agreed.

 

[WheelofGear]

In principle, El Pistolero is right.

A strong group of seven (let's say Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Valverde, Costa, Van Avermaet, Kreuziger and Wellens) could attack 50k out and still destroy the peloton. But that's not how these races are raced. The favorites don't want each other to win.

 

[Mr.White]

As for the favorites for this race, I think the race will explode between Kruisberg and Cauberg so the puncheurs will decide the outcome.
Valverde is obviously my favorite for almost every race, but this time it's going to be tough. I think that last km's doesn't suit him as much as for example Gilbert or Van Avermaet.
GVA has a big question mark, his form is maybe in downward path.
Kwiatkowski is enigma, we never know which version of him will show up. In early March races he was brilliant, amazing! Then in Pais Vasco he climbed and TT-ed like ***!
Wellens is an attacker, I think he has a chance to escape, but that depends on others, will they mark him.
Bahrain Merida has two good cards in Gasparotto and Colbrelli. I think the main guys need to get rid off latter, cause I can't see who can beat him in the sprint beside Matthews.
Which leads me to Matthews. If the race will be like I think, Matthews is not going to be in the final.
And finally my pick for the win: Philippe Gilbert. He's strong, he was resting for 10 days, he know the roads, and maybe most important thing, he knows that his chances will be biggest in this race (among the Ardennes three), and I think he will go full steam in this one.

 

[tobydawq]

I think Colbrelli will win. He has been pretty impressive this spring, I think he is faster than Matthews, he can go from the distance should it be required, and he has a very good team at his disposal for this type of race.

GvA is my second favorite - it's just impossible to ignore him these days.

 

[Asero831]

Re:

The action in Brabantse Pijl is often better than in a bigger race like Amstel.

Still not seeing how a break can survive when you a 8-man teams chasing. Cauberg is overrated as a ramp for attacks. It's just not hard enough.

Aside from Orica, which teams will be chasing?

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

The action in Brabantse Pijl is often better than in a bigger race like Amstel.

Still not seeing how a break can survive when you a 8-man teams chasing. Cauberg is overrated as a ramp for attacks. It's just not hard enough.

Aside from Orica, which teams will be chasing?

Sunweb? And Bora for McCarthy.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

The action in Brabantse Pijl is often better than in a bigger race like Amstel.

Still not seeing how a break can survive when you a 8-man teams chasing. Cauberg is overrated as a ramp for attacks. It's just not hard enough.

Aside from Orica, which teams will be chasing?

Sunweb? And Bora for McCarthy.

All of Matthews domestique will be dropped after 200k
Just take a look at yesterday's race. Bling was isolated in the final third

 

[SHAD0W93]

Do you guys think Kreuziger can race for his own chances?

 

[Asero831]

Re:

Do you guys think Kreuziger can race for his own chances?

Not quite sure who is the leader for Orica. Gerrans was out of form judging from yesterday's race.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

The action in Brabantse Pijl is often better than in a bigger race like Amstel.

Still not seeing how a break can survive when you a 8-man teams chasing. Cauberg is overrated as a ramp for attacks. It's just not hard enough.

Aside from Orica, which teams will be chasing?

Sunweb? And Bora for McCarthy.

All of Matthews domestique will be dropped after 200k
Just take a look at yesterday's race. Bling was isolated in the final third

His team is much stronger for Amstel. Barguil, Kelderman and Preidler are added to the squad. And Amstel is raced much more negatively.

Trust me, it will be a 50-man sprint.

 

[jsem94]

Bemeleberg is crap. Hoping for a miracle here. Race will be tough as nails but that doesn't mean that we will see exciting racing, unfortunately.

 

[sir fly]

This year's edition should be especially interesting. GVA and Gilbert could close their spring rivalry in style. Maybe the best parcours for their duel (like there is such a thing, speaking about them).
And there will be all the rest, as well.
But GVA and Gilbert could blow the race apart from 60 to go, judging by their form.

 

[frisenfruitig]

Re:

Bemeleberg is crap. Hoping for a miracle here. Race will be tough as nails but that doesn't mean that we will see exciting racing, unfortunately.

I'm expecting a snooze fest until the final 15 km.

 

[the asian]

Based on his form I'm revising my prediction for the winner from Matthews to Colbrelli .

Though yearning for a excting race and a Gilbert win logical outcome seems to be a bunch sprint. The final circuit is just not hard enough to keep the fast men from returning.

 

[Red Rick]

This race is gonna be either very good or a very wet fart. I'm leaning toward the latter.

 

[GraftPunk]

No clue, if puncheurs then the obvious candidates are Piti, PhilGil, GVA. If a bunch sprint maybe Cobrelli, though his recent victory wasn't against as strong and *motivated* field as he'll face this weekend. Hopefully not that jerk "Bling" as winner in any event.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Would have been better with the steeper, shorter climbs such as Kruisberg and Eyserbosweg just before the finish followed by 5k of flat. It's easier for the Alaphilippe-types to jump away on those.

The longer, false-flat climbs in this final are perfect for the trains, so don't expect any action.

Kruisberg and Eyserbosweg are perfect ramps for attacks compared to the rest of the climbs. Unlike Liege, Amstel Gold Race doesn't have many really steep climbs.

If those climbs were closer to the finish, we would have seen a lot of action.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Do you guys think Kreuziger can race for his own chances?

Not quite sure who is the leader for Orica. Gerrans was out of form judging from yesterday's race.

They'll probably go with Impey or Albasini with Kreuziger allowed to attack.

 

[Escarabajo]

Cobrelli sure looks strong for this race!

 

[claude cat]

Re: Re:

Do you guys think Kreuziger can race for his own chances?

Not quite sure who is the leader for Orica. Gerrans was out of form judging from yesterday's race.

You'd think Kreuziger and Albasini.
Hell, Keukeleire is a far better chance than Gerrans. Poor fellow seems to have run out of gas.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Honestly, besides Movistar, not a single team should want an uphill sprint on Mur de Huy. But as this is only a prep race no one's going to bother doing something about it. Does anyone care about FW? I don't think so, besides Valverde. Otherwise they'd try to win it.

The amount of people that rate this race high and think it should stay the same way just because they're Valverde fans is astonishing.

I think you're getting confused with your desire to say anything to belittle the achievements of riders you don't like and to do the opposite for the ones you do.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Do you guys think Kreuziger can race for his own chances?

Not quite sure who is the leader for Orica. Gerrans was out of form judging from yesterday's race.

You'd think Kreuziger and Albasini.
Hell, Keukeleire is a far better chance than Gerrans. Poor fellow seems to have run out of gas.

Doesn't that usually happen when you get old?
Unless your name is Alejandro Valverde, of course...