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52nd Amstel Gold Race - April 16 - 261km

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Re: Re:

Arredondo said:
Flamin said:
Was just thinking about what Valverde will do. You'd almost forget him here. Will he finally animate a big (1-day) race? ;) no excuses not to.

He said his only chance to win this race is by attacking from afar. But i don't think he will go mental at 50 km to go. He doesn't want to jeopardize his chances for FW and LBL in this race.

I think he will follow wheels and if there's a opportunity in the final (20 km), he will try.
Yeah, I reckon he'll race pretty conservatively and be happy with a top 5 finish. Maybe try to attack on one of the last climbs, but the finale just doesn't look hard enough for him.
 
Aug 16, 2013
7,620
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Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Arredondo said:
Flamin said:
Was just thinking about what Valverde will do. You'd almost forget him here. Will he finally animate a big (1-day) race? ;) no excuses not to.

He said his only chance to win this race is by attacking from afar. But i don't think he will go mental at 50 km to go. He doesn't want to jeopardize his chances for FW and LBL in this race.

I think he will follow wheels and if there's a opportunity in the final (20 km), he will try.
Yeah, I reckon he'll race pretty conservatively and be happy with a top 5 finish. Maybe try to attack on one of the last climbs, but the finale just doesn't look hard enough for him.

What i don't understand is why Movistar is riding. Is it only because it will keep him safe in front?
 
Re: Re:

Mr.White said:
DFA123 said:
Anyone know when the first real chance of action starting between the contenders on this course? Kruisberg maybe, or will the flat after the Keutenberg kill any moves made before?

Kruisberg/Eyserbosweg combo looks ideal as a launching pad. Froomberg and Keutenberg comes in quick succession after that. There's a 7-8km flat after until Cauberg, but if a strong group escapes with some of the main favorites, I think they can make it to the finish
I guess the advantage for some of the strong-men like Gilbert or GVA is that Sunweb and Bahrain look pretty weak,and probably wouldn't get much help chasing down a smallish break unless a team like Sky or Orica misses the move. First year no a new course always has potential, imo, even if the course is a bit rubbish, because no-one really knows for sure how to play it.
 
Re: Re:

Arredondo said:
DFA123 said:
Arredondo said:
Flamin said:
Was just thinking about what Valverde will do. You'd almost forget him here. Will he finally animate a big (1-day) race? ;) no excuses not to.

He said his only chance to win this race is by attacking from afar. But i don't think he will go mental at 50 km to go. He doesn't want to jeopardize his chances for FW and LBL in this race.

I think he will follow wheels and if there's a opportunity in the final (20 km), he will try.
Yeah, I reckon he'll race pretty conservatively and be happy with a top 5 finish. Maybe try to attack on one of the last climbs, but the finale just doesn't look hard enough for him.

What i don't understand is why Movistar is riding. Is it only because it will keep him safe in front?
I guess it could be just keeping him safe. Or perhaps they are just trying to keep a fast pace up all of the climbs; they need the race to be as hard as possible I suppose to swing it more in the favour of the climbers.
 
Mar 13, 2015
2,637
0
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Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Arredondo said:
Flamin said:
Was just thinking about what Valverde will do. You'd almost forget him here. Will he finally animate a big (1-day) race? ;) no excuses not to.

He said his only chance to win this race is by attacking from afar. But i don't think he will go mental at 50 km to go. He doesn't want to jeopardize his chances for FW and LBL in this race.

I think he will follow wheels and if there's a opportunity in the final (20 km), he will try.
Yeah, I reckon he'll race pretty conservatively and be happy with a top 5 finish. Maybe try to attack on one of the last climbs, but the finale just doesn't look hard enough for him.

If he ends up in front with a group of 5-10 riders, he could easily win. His chances are slim only if 30-40 riders comes together
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Mr.White said:
DFA123 said:
Anyone know when the first real chance of action starting between the contenders on this course? Kruisberg maybe, or will the flat after the Keutenberg kill any moves made before?

Kruisberg/Eyserbosweg combo looks ideal as a launching pad. Froomberg and Keutenberg comes in quick succession after that. There's a 7-8km flat after until Cauberg, but if a strong group escapes with some of the main favorites, I think they can make it to the finish
I guess the advantage for some of the strong-men like Gilbert or GVA is that Sunweb and Bahrain look pretty weak,and probably wouldn't get much help chasing down a smallish break unless a team like Sky or Orica misses the move. First year no a new course always has potential, imo, even if the course is a bit rubbish, because no-one really knows for sure how to play it.
I don't know, Bahrain have a pretty strong team for today. They have 3 of last year's top 10 racing, plus Ion and Bole who looked strong on Wednesday. They do have Wang and Arashiro who aren't the strongest, granted, and Cortina who won't be great over the hills, but it's still one of the stronger teams. Especially as Gasparotto and Colbrelli offer two very different threats.
 
Re: Re:

Brullnux said:
DFA123 said:
Mr.White said:
DFA123 said:
Anyone know when the first real chance of action starting between the contenders on this course? Kruisberg maybe, or will the flat after the Keutenberg kill any moves made before?

Kruisberg/Eyserbosweg combo looks ideal as a launching pad. Froomberg and Keutenberg comes in quick succession after that. There's a 7-8km flat after until Cauberg, but if a strong group escapes with some of the main favorites, I think they can make it to the finish
I guess the advantage for some of the strong-men like Gilbert or GVA is that Sunweb and Bahrain look pretty weak,and probably wouldn't get much help chasing down a smallish break unless a team like Sky or Orica misses the move. First year no a new course always has potential, imo, even if the course is a bit rubbish, because no-one really knows for sure how to play it.
I don't know, Bahrain have a pretty strong team for today. They have 3 of last year's top 10 racing, plus Ion and Bole who looked strong on Wednesday. They do have Wang and Arashiro who aren't the strongest, granted, and Cortina who won't be great over the hills, but it's still one of the stronger teams. Especially as Gasparotto and Colbrelli offer two very different threats.
That's a fair point about the different threats. Especially I guess if they could get Gasparotto into any break it would be a perfect situation for them. Gasparotto could legitimately sit on and not work, and they also wouldn't really have to chase hard in the peloton.