56kh ITT

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

Anyone able to estimate RD's frontal area?

Yes, but perhaps discuss elsewhere where fewer logical fallacies abound?

I estimate his track CdA from the hour record was ~0.20 - 0.21m^2. Typically add a little for road TT bike.

2250-2350W/m^2 would attain 55.4km/h on flat roads on a warm day with still air, nice smooth roads and good tyres.

At CdA of 0.20, that's ~460W
0.21m^2 =~ 480W
0.22m^2 =~ 500W
0.23m^2 =~ 520W

But for power estimates from outdoor TTs, even the slightest wind = large error bars which I've not included here.

e.g.:
i. winds affect CdA, often cross wind drops CdA somewhat
ii. for straight head/tailwind, even an imperceptible +/-0.3m/s wind* would result in a power estimate error of ~ +/- 20W

* that's not noticeable by feel, smoke still rises vertically, yet still has a major impact on power demand.

If we assume 460-480 watts, since his listed weight AFAIK is 71 kilos, that is in the range of 6.5 - 6.75 watts/kg. As I said before, that's higher than most climbing times, will almost certainly be higher than any power output on any climb in this Tour. Even taking into account that it was only a fifteen minute effort, it's still a very high power/weight output, particularly for a rider who isn't a climber. For a normal power-time relationship, it would still be well above 6.0 watts/kg for 30-40 minutes,and for whatever probably somewhat longer time someone wants to use for FTP.

But as I also said before, I don't know what the wind situation was. I thought I heard he had a tailwind in the first part of the course?

And by the way, what was Wiggo's power output in his recent hour record?

Well anyone winning an opening ITT stage of the TdF is going to knock out some impressive numbers irrespective of doping status. That's a given. One of the pre-race favourites won, again no real surprise.

As you say, this was a 15-minute effort on opening stage fresh out of the gate right after a controlled warmup. You'd need to compare it with a final climb of a decisive stage over a similar duration (not counting pre-fatigue). Boardman was ~6.4W/kg for his best performance hour record. Didn't make him a competitive climber. His 4km ride at the same time would be ~2700W/m^2.

Some people get more power down in TT than they do climbing, they are just better at it. My TT power was better than my climbing power, although not by much. Others are much better at getting power out in the climbs than TT.

And as you and I and others have pointed out, there are many substantial sources of error when estimating power from flat TT speeds, so I'd take any estimates derived from outdoor TTs with large grains of salt. Climbing power estimates are bad enough. Not to mention the fallacy of using a single power estimate to determine one's doping status.

I estimated Wiggins' hour ride at 2200-2220W/m^2
http://alex-cycle.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/wiggos-hour.html

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

It's even more telling to show pics, like the one of the Big 4 recently posted to non-cycling fans, which I did, trying to share my excitement about the TdF. Unanimously, the response/reaction was that no fit athlete should look like this: I heard comparisons with freed prisoners from Buchenwald or Auschwitz. Bones and skin. Cycling should be a display of fitness. With it would come the sponsors, bike sales, et caetera. What are these people thinking? That we are blind?

but we may not see the athlete for 11 months, or the 4 months offseason. Then they look materially different. BUT, but, but, devil's advocate, if we were doing the cycle of androgens, and looked in the mirror everyday, we would not recognise the difference from 24 hours when you took a "pin" (hypodermic injection).

And when you look at your rivals and competitors and teammates, lots are doing the same cycle, so, you just look normal within this fraternity. when it is anything but normal. It is NOT NORMAL

 

[42x16ss]

Too many variables here to see this as a smoking gun by itself. Dennis was always going to be top 10 at worst and only won by 5 seconds, so he wasn't the only one flying out there.

Dennis went very early, before the heat got too extreme. Those tipped to beat Dennis or post similar times went much later. Then there was the road surface, which didn't look like standard hotmix tarmac for large sections - would this roll differently? Then there's the wind conditions. Did anyone attend the race live? I know that LaFlo lives in the area and there may be some others.

I can't see this performance by itself as anything other than an outlier from one of the WT's 2-3 most promising up and coming TT specialists. If Dennis smacks Martin, Dumoulin, Cancellara etc again at Worlds, or is pacing Van Garderen at the pointy end of mountain stages then I'll happily join the chorus saying that he's found something new or going beyond the norm for a pro.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

It's even more telling to show pics, like the one of the Big 4 recently posted to non-cycling fans, which I did, trying to share my excitement about the TdF. Unanimously, the response/reaction was that no fit athlete should look like this: I heard comparisons with freed prisoners from Buchenwald or Auschwitz. Bones and skin. Cycling should be a display of fitness. With it would come the sponsors, bike sales, et caetera. What are these people thinking? That we are blind?

but we may not see the athlete for 11 months, or the 4 months offseason. Then they look materially different. BUT, but, but, devil's advocate, if we were doing the cycle of androgens, and looked in the mirror everyday, we would not recognise the difference from 24 hours when you took a "pin" (hypodermic injection).

And when you look at your rivals and competitors and teammates, lots are doing the same cycle, so, you just look normal within this fraternity. when it is anything but normal. It is NOT NORMAL

Agree. Which makes the eyes of non-cycling fans even more telling. People who see these guys for the first time are horrified. How long can the circus sell this, talk about growing the sport, yet miss the HUGE opportunity to make cycling more global as a fitness sport.

 

[blackcat]

Re:

Too many variables here to see this as a smoking gun by itself. Dennis was always going to be top 10 at worst and only won by 5 seconds, so he wasn't the only one flying out there.

Dennis went very early, before the heat got too extreme. Those tipped to beat Dennis or post similar times went much later. Then there was the road surface, which didn't look like standard hotmix tarmac for large sections - would this roll differently? Then there's the wind conditions. Did anyone attend the race live? I know that LaFlo lives in the area and there may be some others.

I can't see this performance by itself as anything other than an outlier from one of the WT's 2-3 most promising up and coming TT specialists. If Dennis smacks Martin, Dumoulin, Cancellara etc again at Worlds, then I'll happily join the chorus saying that he's probably found something new or going beyond the norm for a pro.

Gesink was either 10th or 11th. And he did some ok tts in the espoirs for a GC/grimpeur, but nothing like a punchy prologue. I am yet to see if Gesink will climb and chrono out of his socks in the three weeks.

but if Gesink went off early, it would be an indicator of a favourable wind and conditions. it would be potential indicator that is.

and Jos Van Emden, well, he might be like Schumacher and Sergei Gonchar or Honchar, and did a load of preparation for the tt, and spent not a lick in the mtns as preparation. Like in about 2004, Brett "Burt-bigbird" Lancaster, was the 1km prologue in the Giro. The night prologue. But Lancaster had been doing some specific preparation on that 1km prologue. And I mean training, not the other preparation, which he would have been doing as no different.
but Lancaster had the advantage of coming from the track team pursuit, and being able to prepare specifically for it, and he knew how to dose and measure his efforts for the one kilo. Because it was like the track starts for the team pursuit. And he was one of the chief engines for the Australian dominance for a half decade between 1998 and 2002. Like Ed Clancy for the Brits. I know Lancaster took a double lap turn in one of the world championship ride-offs in about 2001 or 2003. So winning the prologue over 1km, no surprise.

And he also won a one km prologue in Tour of Germany about 2012 I think. Someone can google it for me. he may have even beat Cav for that prologue.

Anway, on the main road cycling forum, the Hour Record thread, the poster M Sport gave me a heads up about 18 months back, that Dennis was the one to break the Hour. Obviously, in the Australian track fraternity, they know his power and his tests and potential.

ps. a bit like u 42x16 gave me headsup on Durbridge's lack of explosiveness for the team pursuit starts, which now has become less track endurance, more track sprint even. Think an Australia, or UK (coulda even been Sutton) track coach said the TP was moving more to a sprint even, needing to do 65kmph nose in wind. And then terminal velocity within 150metres.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Too many variables here to see this as a smoking gun by itself. Dennis was always going to be top 10 at worst and only won by 5 seconds, so he wasn't the only one flying out there.

Dennis went very early, before the heat got too extreme. Those tipped to beat Dennis or post similar times went much later. Then there was the road surface, which didn't look like standard hotmix tarmac for large sections - would this roll differently? Then there's the wind conditions. Did anyone attend the race live? I know that LaFlo lives in the area and there may be some others.

I can't see this performance by itself as anything other than an outlier from one of the WT's 2-3 most promising up and coming TT specialists. If Dennis smacks Martin, Dumoulin, Cancellara etc again at Worlds, then I'll happily join the chorus saying that he's probably found something new or going beyond the norm for a pro.

Gesink was either 10th or 11th. And he did some ok tts in the espoirs for a GC/grimpeur, but nothing like a punchy prologue. I am yet to see if Gesink will climb and chrono out of his socks in the three weeks.

but if Gesink went off early, it would be an indicator of a favourable wind and conditions. it would be potential indicator that is.

and Jos Van Emden, well, he might be like Schumacher and Sergei Gonchar or Honchar, and did a load of preparation for the tt, and spent not a lick in the mtns as preparation. Like in about 2004, Brett "Burt-bigbird" Lancaster, was the 1km prologue in the Giro. The night prologue. But Lancaster had been doing some specific preparation on that 1km prologue. And I mean training, not the other preparation, which he would have been doing as no different.
but Lancaster had the advantage of coming from the track team pursuit, and being able to prepare specifically for it, and he knew how to dose and measure his efforts for the one kilo. Because it was like the track starts for the team pursuit. And he was one of the chief engines for the Australian dominance for a half decade between 1998 and 2002. Like Ed Clancy for the Brits. I know Lancaster took a double lap turn in one of the world championship ride-offs in about 2001 or 2003. So winning the prologue over 1km, no surprise.

And he also won a one km prologue in Tour of Germany about 2012 I think. Someone can google it for me. he may have even beat Cav for that prologue.

Anway, on the main road cycling forum, the Hour Record thread, the poster M Sport gave me a heads up about 18 months back, that Dennis was the one to break the Hour. Obviously, in the Australian track fraternity, they know his power and his tests and potential.

ps. a bit like u 42x16 gave me headsup on Durbridge's lack of explosiveness for the team pursuit starts, which now has become less track endurance, more track sprint even. Think an Australia, or UK (coulda even been Sutton) track coach said the TP was moving more to a sprint even, needing to do 65kmph nose in wind. And then terminal velocity within 150metres.

In 2004 Lancaster even used a fixed wheel for that prologue - a genius move when you think about it. At his best Lancaster had a massive turn of speed, a wonderful leadout guy for Petacchi.

The TP is getting ludicrous. It's looking like it's shifting away from even good IP'ers and developing it's own specialists. 4 guys built more like Madison sprinters or sprinters from the road, with builds like Greipel and Viviani.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

In 2004 Lancaster even used a fixed wheel for that prologue - a genius move when you think about it. At his best Lancaster had a massive turn of speed, a wonderful leadout guy for Petacchi.

The TP is getting ludicrous. It's looking like it's shifting away from even good IP'ers and developing it's own specialists. 4 guys built more like Madison sprinters or sprinters from the road, with builds like Greipel and Viviani.

i cant even remember where Lancaster went after Ceramiche Panaria? But I have not been following cycling since about 2008, only come to Clinic for the amusement

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

In 2004 Lancaster even used a fixed wheel for that prologue - a genius move when you think about it. At his best Lancaster had a massive turn of speed, a wonderful leadout guy for Petacchi.

The TP is getting ludicrous. It's looking like it's shifting away from even good IP'ers and developing it's own specialists. 4 guys built more like Madison sprinters or sprinters from the road, with builds like Greipel and Viviani.

i cant even remember where Lancaster went after Ceramiche Panaria? But I have not been following cycling since about 2008, only come to Clinic for the amusement

Milram, he was leadout for Petacchi for a few years. Then Cervelo and Garmin as leadout for Farrar/Hushovd. He's been with Orica since they started.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

The TP is getting ludicrous. It's looking like it's shifting away from even good IP'ers and developing it's own specialists. 4 guys built more like Madison sprinters or sprinters from the road, with builds like Greipel and Viviani.

I don't see it as all that new. Roadie sprinters/lead out guys with track experience have always made for good TP riders and have been part of Aussie TP teams going back a long way. Often pure IP riders couldn't ride TP well enough.

It's no surprise since the TP has a much higher neuromuscular power demand than does the IP.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

Milram, he was leadout for Petacchi for a few years. Then Cervelo and Garmin as leadout for Farrar/Hushovd. He's been with Orica since they started.

Gardiani or Guardiani is the current iteration of Panaria innit?

I remember them going thru the most recent iterations, brains just a little hazy since i dont follow it,

but for some reason, i can remember the mediocre sprinters, who are actually the best sprinters when there is a elongated and steep more-than-false-flat sprint. Steegmans, Graeme Brown(!!!), Robert Forster. And Graeme Brown was loved by the track coaches for being (in their words) the best starter in the world (like Ed Clancy). Which made me think, of those uphill sprints, when Graeme Brown pretty much sucked @rse on the road.

and what Petacchi said about Chicchi that he always beat him in training. The road sprints, more like a madison for the last 5km, unless you have the team like Cipollini or Petacchi, who are those wide promenade type sprints, where the team pulls them like a team pursuit then they could unless their 2000 watts on the last 200metres. And I have seen Cav ride with just as much skill as MCewen when he was left by himself, and had to chase wheels, and navigate the last kilometres. So Cav is not the best ever sprinter because he needed a leadout team, no, that is 100% apocryphal. He never needed a team nor leadout. but he would win more with a leadout team ofcourse!

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

The TP is getting ludicrous. It's looking like it's shifting away from even good IP'ers and developing it's own specialists. 4 guys built more like Madison sprinters or sprinters from the road, with builds like Greipel and Viviani.

I don't see it as all that new. Roadie sprinters/lead out guys with track experience have always made for good TP riders and have been part of Aussie TP teams going back a long way. Often pure IP riders couldn't ride TP well enough.

It's no surprise since the TP has a much higher neuromuscular power demand than does the IP.

around 2005 the Tasmanian team did about 358 in Del Monte at nationals. Goss was in it I think, and other riders who were really young too. Would have won the Sydney team pursuit, I think the Germans won that did not they?

 

[Archibald]

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He got caught out in the echelons

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He's a good, smart team player who rides for the team goal. Reading the article describing the split, he could have made it no worries, looked around, saw Nibs, knew TJ was up the road, so let it go, rather than taking Nibs with him.

Deserves a fat effing bonus IMO.

 

[Archibald]

Re: Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He got caught out in the echelons

but wait, this over the top TT rider is juiced up to the max, so if he can produce the TT he did, then why could he not keep up with this team a day later after a simple 15minute effort??

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He got caught out in the echelons

but wait, this over the top TT rider is juiced up to the max, so if he can produce the TT he did, then why could he not keep up with this team a day later after a simple 15minute effort??

he could, but when the peloton was splitting into the echelons, he was in the rear half of the peloton, and he did not go across because it was a strategic decision to go backwards because GC threats were in that section of the peloton

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He got caught out in the echelons

but wait, this over the top TT rider is juiced up to the max, so if he can produce the TT he did, then why could he not keep up with this team a day later after a simple 15minute effort??

I didn't see the stage but that was my assumption. From what I heard it was Etixx and Saxo who drove the pace to break things up. Strong crosswinds would be like blood to a shark for their rouleurs and classics guys. Rogers, Tosatto and Martin would have been chomping at the bit.

Contador got caught out in echelons in '09, as did Froome in '13, because it's about positioning and reading the race as much as anything else.

On the other hand, Brad McGee always said that he felt flat for a day or two after a really good prologue and he won one at all 3 GT's. It's the second stage, no one's had a chance to do anything completely mental yet.

 

[Archibald]

Re: Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He got caught out in the echelons

but wait, this over the top TT rider is juiced up to the max, so if he can produce the TT he did, then why could he not keep up with this team a day later after a simple 15minute effort??

I didn't see the stage but that was my assumption. Wasn't Van Garderen and Van Avermaet the only BMC riders to make it? From what I saw it was Etixx and Saxo who drove the pace to break things up. Strong crosswinds would be like blood to a shark for their rouleurs and classics guys.

Contador got caught out in echelons in '09, as did Froome in '13, because it's about positioning and reading the race as much as anything else.

On the other hand, Brad McGee always said that he felt flat for a day or two after a really good prologue and he won one at all 3 GT's. It's the second stage, no one's had a chance to do anything completely mental yet.

I must have got the wrong impression from cyclingnews' article this morning...

Van Garderen and the bulk of his team were present and accounted for when the peloton split in the crosswinds, while Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar) both lost 1:28 by the time they crossed the line behind stage winner Andre Greipel. Dennis was unable to make the front group and BMC were caught in two minds as to whether they should press on or wait for Dennis, ...

That suggested he'd struggled to keep up...

I was being factious about this claimed extraordinary TT'er not able to keep up the day after his supposedly phenomenal ride

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

what does his performance, or lack there of, on stage 2 indicate?

He got caught out in the echelons

but wait, this over the top TT rider is juiced up to the max, so if he can produce the TT he did, then why could he not keep up with this team a day later after a simple 15minute effort??

I didn't see the stage but that was my assumption. Wasn't Van Garderen and Van Avermaet the only BMC riders to make it? From what I saw it was Etixx and Saxo who drove the pace to break things up. Strong crosswinds would be like blood to a shark for their rouleurs and classics guys.

Contador got caught out in echelons in '09, as did Froome in '13, because it's about positioning and reading the race as much as anything else.

On the other hand, Brad McGee always said that he felt flat for a day or two after a really good prologue and he won one at all 3 GT's. It's the second stage, no one's had a chance to do anything completely mental yet.

I must have got the wrong impression from cyclingnews' article this morning...

Van Garderen and the bulk of his team were present and accounted for when the peloton split in the crosswinds, while Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar) both lost 1:28 by the time they crossed the line behind stage winner Andre Greipel. Dennis was unable to make the front group and BMC were caught in two minds as to whether they should press on or wait for Dennis, ...

That suggested he'd struggled to keep up...

I was being factious about this claimed extraordinary TT'er not able to keep up the day after his supposedly phenomenal ride

Then re-read my last two sentences

 

[IndianCyclist]

He is not the rider the top 3 TTers are(Martin, Cance, Domoulin). Those 3 are still in the top 5. He got lucky with his start perhaps with wind, heat

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

The TP is getting ludicrous. It's looking like it's shifting away from even good IP'ers and developing it's own specialists. 4 guys built more like Madison sprinters or sprinters from the road, with builds like Greipel and Viviani.

I don't see it as all that new. Roadie sprinters/lead out guys with track experience have always made for good TP riders and have been part of Aussie TP teams going back a long way. Often pure IP riders couldn't ride TP well enough.

It's no surprise since the TP has a much higher neuromuscular power demand than does the IP.

around 2005 the Tasmanian team did about 358 in Del Monte at nationals. Goss was in it I think, and other riders who were really young too. Would have won the Sydney team pursuit, I think the Germans won that did not they?

Yes but Olympics were in September in Sydney, not Adelaide in the summer. You can't assume conditions would have permitted the same time to be ridden.

History of Aussie TP Olympic teams since the 1980s:
1980 6th: Colin Fitzgerald, Kevin Nichols, Kelvin Poole, Garry Sutton
1984: Gold: Michael Grenda, Kevin Nichols, Michael Turtur, Dean Woods
1988 Bronze: Brett Dutton, Wayne McCarney, Stephen McGlede, Dean Woods, Scott McGrory
1992 Silver: Brett Aitken; Stephen McGlede; Shaun O’Brien; Stuart O’Grady
1996 Bronze: Brett Aitken, Bradley McGee, Stuart O'Grady, Timothy O'Shannessey, Dean Woods
2000 5th: Brett Aitken, Graeme Brown, Brad McGee, Brett Lancaster, Michael Rogers
2004 Gold: Graeme Brown, Brett Lancaster, Brad McGee, Luke Roberts, Peter Dawson, Luke Wooldridge
2008 4th: Jack Bobridge, Mark Jamieson, Bradley McGee, Luke Roberts, Graeme Brown
2012 Silver: Jack Bobridge, Glenn O'Shea, Rohan Dennis, Michael Hepburn

When you peruse the list of names, lots of roadie sprint type and track endurance guys there. It's never been a pure IP rider's event. In many years the chosen IP rider was not in the TP team.

 

[Volderke]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen and the bulk of his team were present and accounted for when the peloton split in the crosswinds, while Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar) both lost 1:28 by the time they crossed the line behind stage winner Andre Greipel. Dennis was unable to make the front group and BMC were caught in two minds as to whether they should press on or wait for Dennis, ...

That suggested he'd struggled to keep up...

I was being factious about this claimed extraordinary TT'er not able to keep up the day after his supposedly phenomenal ride

That does not suggest he struggled.
An echelon consists out of as many people can take up space on the road. So with side wind echelons, there is a limit amount of people that can be in that echelon. All others are riding in the wind and not really getting the advantage of the echelon. So when a peloton of 200 riders breaks into echelons, mathematically, only about 20-25 can be in the first. If your name is not between those 25, it doesn't suggest anything, except that you weren't in the first 25 when the echelon was formed.

If there is a crash or someone who cannot follow in front of you, you have even more chance of not being in the first echelon. And still no suggestion of struggle.

I suggest some of you to ride a bit more in crosswinds before assuming and making up some very wild theories. The lack of facts, experience and even the simpliest of causal relationships / theories / common knowledge about racing, shown in many of the posts in the clinic, is astonishing.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

Yes but Olympics were in September in Sydney, not Adelaide in the summer. You can't assume conditions would have permitted the same time to be ridden.

... snip...

snip...

When you peruse the list of names, lots of roadie sprint type and track endurance guys there. It's never been a pure IP rider's event. In many years the chosen IP rider was not in the TP team.

yeah, you'd be able to tell me what time Bobridge's WR in del Monte in Adelaide in Jan works out at if I give u he air pressure and humidity and the temperature. what did he ride? 4'11" or 4'09" or something in that vicinity? what is the neutral condition?

yeah, we know Jan, Adels, del Monte, is sooooooopa fast

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

Yes but Olympics were in September in Sydney, not Adelaide in the summer. You can't assume conditions would have permitted the same time to be ridden.

... snip...

snip...

When you peruse the list of names, lots of roadie sprint type and track endurance guys there. It's never been a pure IP rider's event. In many years the chosen IP rider was not in the TP team.

yeah, you'd be able to tell me what time Bobridge's WR in del Monte in Adelaide in Jan works out at if I give u he air pressure and humidity and the temperature. what did he ride? 4'11" or 4'09" or something in that vicinity? what is the neutral condition?

yeah, we know Jan, Adels, del Monte, is sooooooopa fast

Actually Bobridge's WR (4:10.x) was set in Sydney at DGV in February 2011 and it was ridiculously hot. I know/recall because I was racing at the same championships.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

When you peruse the list of names, lots of roadie sprint type and track endurance guys there. It's never been a pure IP rider's event. In many years the chosen IP rider was not in the TP team.

which is why sutton and brailsford and keen liked to keep G and Ed as the engines of the TP, and just fit a fourth and fifth rider around them and bring in Wiggo for the final. Burke, Manning, Haynes, Hayles, Kennaugh. in some of those years, Clancy and G might have been able to win an IP v Wiggo, mano a mano. But the best chances for the TP success, and an IP gold, were Wiggo to maintain the dominance in the IP, because it was three rounds wasnt it? and for G and Clancy to be the engines in the TP.