75th La Fleche Wallonne 201km Wednesday April20nd 2011

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

this man

 

[dlwssonic]

this man

cant wait to see purito to beat beefer but I still have faith in the schlecks!

 

[Jamsque]

'mon the HES-JAY! Hopefully he can bounce back from his flu and get in the top 10 again.

 

[luckyboy]

Can see it being an all-Spanish podium

 

[jens_attacks]

yeah me too...can't see something else just alberto-anton-purito

 

[Sophistic]

VDB and Hejsedal are too heavy for the Mur, if i had to pick a "dark horse" it would be Horner.

 

[The Hitch]

After today, Im taking Cunego out of the mix. this is a straight 1 on 1 mano a mano Purito vs Pistolero, Catalunia vs Madrid, Katusha vs Saxo, Rodriguez vs Contador.

 

[icefire]

this man

The only think I miss in that picture is a carrot in front of the donkey

 

[theyoungest]

he was 9th when he was a 20 year old neo.. he was 4th when he was 21 year old... after that he missed an edition and last year he was sick

if he doesn't top 10 then he is worse than when he was 20.

The problem is, I think Gesink is worse than when he was 20, at this kind of climb at least. He was much more of a pure mountain goat back then.

 

[Sylvester]

What about Gilbert? Of course the Mur has proven to be a little too steep for him... but it's not entirely impossible for him to win here, and given his current form he should at least be able to make the top 5 (he was 6th last year on his first true attempt).

Rodriguez and Contador (and maybe Anton, Cunego, Schleck and Gesink) are the top favourites, but Anton is still building for the Giro, Andy Schleck has never been at his best on the very steep parts of the Mur, Cunego is too variable and Contador doesn't seem to be in absolute top form. I think it's Rodriguez' race to lose.

 

[Ferminal]

Would it be ignorant of me to remain hopeful of it not being a bunch sprint?

 

[boomcie]

...this is a straight 1 on 1 mano a mano Purito vs Pistolero, Catalunia vs Madrid, Katusha vs Saxo, Rodriguez vs Contador.

I agree with the Hitch.

 

[Sasquatch]

It's all about Purito! Can't see anyone beating him.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

My money will be on Anton. He was in the late attack last year with Kolobnev and then was in front too early on the Mur, yet still finished 4th. Assuming he is more patient this year I think he'll have a better kick in the last 100m than Contador while I don't think Rodriguez will have sufficiently recovered from yesterday

 

[Jamsque]

I think we'll see the same outcome as last year: the big three Spaniards will all be nervous and goad each other in to attacking too early, and someone riding a more measured pace will end up catching them all before the finish.

 

[dlwssonic]

I think we'll see the same outcome as last year: the big three Spaniards will all be nervous and goad each other in to attacking too early, and someone riding a more measured pace will end up catching them all before the finish.

Could that be schleck

 

[Sasquatch]

Early market.

It will be framed something like this.

Rodriguez - $4
Contador - $7.50
Basso - $9
A Schleck - $11
Gilbert - $12
Cunego - $13
Anton - $14
Gesink - $16
Schleck - $17
S Sanchez - $18
Kolobnev - $21
Vinokourov - $23
Fuglsang - $35
Gerrans - $35
Martin - $35
Hesjedal - $35
Wegmann - $35
Martens - $50
Poels - $50
Sanchez - $50
Albasini - $55
Di Luca - $55
Lovkvist - $55
Marcato - $55
Gasparotto - $60
Ivanov - $60
Van Den Broeck - $70
Pineau - $175

Hoping money comes in for Contador and Anton at that price and Purito goes out a bit.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The problem is, I think Gesink is worse than when he was 20, at this kind of climb at least. He was much more of a pure mountain goat back then.

Meh, still think he'll do well here.

 

[Dedelou]

I think we'll see the same outcome as last year: the big three Spaniards will all be nervous and goad each other in to attacking too early, and someone riding a more measured pace will end up catching them all before the finish.

I am afraid you are right considering the profile before the mur. I am not getting the feeling the schlecklets team can push the pace earlier and make the break before the sprint finish up the hill

 

[movingtarget]

Contador, Rodriguez, Cunego and Gesink.

 

[nvpacchi]

Early market.

It will be framed something like this.

Rodriguez - $4
Contador - $7.50
Basso - $9
A Schleck - $11
Gilbert - $12
Cunego - $13
Anton - $14
Gesink - $16
Schleck - $17
S Sanchez - $18
Kolobnev - $21
Vinokourov - $23
Fuglsang - $35
Gerrans - $35
Martin - $35
Hesjedal - $35
Wegmann - $35
Martens - $50
Poels - $50
Sanchez - $50
Albasini - $55
Di Luca - $55
Lovkvist - $55
Marcato - $55
Gasparotto - $60
Ivanov - $60
Van Den Broeck - $70
Pineau - $175

Hoping money comes in for Contador and Anton at that price and Purito goes out a bit.

Basso at $9
Di Luca wouldn't be bad to throw 20 bucks at.

Still think Samu will patiently pace himself up the Muur and then catch the likes of a Conti or Purito attack

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Without seeing last years replay I remember that huge Klöden-attack
Should work this year, since he has a better season and knows the Mur better now.
No, not really think that he can win that. Not enough punch and needs a break now. Is he even starting there ?

Klöden is listed to start the Giro del Trentino on the same day.

 

[AussieGoddess]

hmm

I think Contador will get there ...

whoever said it before was right - last year he was getting ready for a break, this year he is just amping up for the Giro .... FW is perfect for him.

 

[The Hitch]

Early market.

It will be framed something like this.

Rodriguez - $4
Contador - $7.50

Hang on. Does this mean if i put $1 on Contador i get 7.50 return?

hmm

I think Contador will get there ...

whoever said it before was right - last year he was getting ready for a break, this year he is just amping up for the Giro .... FW is perfect for him.

Last year the winner of FW did the Giro and as it turns out, peaked too early

 

[Ferminal]

I'm going away from Anton, after previously backing him in to win here.

I re-watched his win on stage 4 of the Vuelta last year. He rode his own pace over the ultra gradients (whilst Rodriguez gave it everything) and then attacked once it flattened out (to around 5% or so). Smart victory, but Purito's attack that day was huge, and it came on the steepest section. If Purito holds his nerve long enough he should win.

Last year Purito just followed Evans, without ever making a big attack. If he has a bit more in the tank to make a big attack in the final 150m, he wins.

Add Contador to the mix and it becomes more interesting - but he will either play the Anton role of last year (riding a fast tempo) or try the waiting game with Rodriguez.

Rodriguez has already shown his form on Sunday, Contador we know will be in good form. Anton we are less sure of (but clearly improving) and maybe he doesn't want to peak so close to the Giro.

Rodriguez
Contador
Anton/A Schleck/Horner/Gilbert