75th La Fleche Wallonne 201km Wednesday April20nd 2011

[El Pistolero]

Hey, what's wrong with Mosquera as a GT rider? He managed i think 4 consecutive top-5 finishes in the Vuelta before getting semi-busted.

Nothing, I can just think of a lot better climbers than Mosquera.

 

[roundabout]

Maybe, but these are very good results for a GT rider.

 

[The Hitch]

Even Joaquim Rodriguez has recently said he probably rather wins a real Ardennes classic than his very own Vuelta. I just don't rate the Vuelta that high. Never will.

What the **** has that got to do with anything? We are discussing whether Gilbert can win the Vuelta and you come up with " Me and Joaquim Rodriguez dont rate the Vuetla very high". Are you confused or deliberately trolling?

You dont rate the Vuelta ergo Gilbert can win? How does that work?

You dont rate the 2012 Olympic road race either. Does that mean Contador can win that?

Nothing, I can just think of a lot better climbers than Mosquera.

But Gilbert is not one of them.

 

[boomcie]

Nothing, I can just think of a lot better climbers than Mosquera.

But Gilbert is not one of them.

In El Pistolet's fantasies, Gilbert is a phenomenal climber.

So technically when he thinks about Gilbert, he thinks about a stronger climber than Mosquera.

 

[El Pistolero]

What the **** has that got to do with anything? We are discussing whether Gilbert can win the Vuelta and you come up with " Me and Joaquim Rodriguez dont rate the Vuetla very high". Are you confused or deliberately trolling?

You dont rate the Vuelta ergo Gilbert can win? How does that work?

You dont rate the 2012 Olympic road race either. Does that mean Contador can win that?



But Gilbert is not one of them.

Not right now hence I said if he really wanted to focus on becoming a GT rider he could win the Vuelta.
I don't think it's impossible for a classics rider to do well in a GT. Armstrong is an example. Yes, he was deep in the clinic stuff, but as if he wasn't deep in it before he placed fourth in 1998 Vuelta.

 

[theyoungest]

Not right now hence I said if he really wanted to focus on becoming a GT rider he could win the Vuelta.

Gilbert will never be able to follow the Mosquera type up something like the Bola del Mundo. He just doesn't have the build for it, and he needs to change his style of racing (smaller gears, higher cadence).

 

[The Hitch]

Not right now hence I said if he really wanted to focus on becoming a GT rider he could win the Vuelta.

So the purpose of the paragraph about how you dont rate the Vuelta very high was....

 

[El Pistolero]

So the purpose of the paragraph about how you dont rate the Vuelta very high was....

that most of the cyclists do the same hence the Vuelta will never have the strong fields you see in the Giro or the Tour(or the stars have already done the for mentioned GTs and are on the way down in their peak form)

If Peter Velits can come third in his first Vuelta(and will be second) than it's not impossible to imagine Gilbert could one day do well in a GC of the Vuelta in a weak field(like last year with Anton crashing out, Schleck still suffering from his injuries, etc) with no real mountainous stages à la Angliru.

Will he have to change his style, body and program? Obviously. I said he could, not he would or he will.

Would it be a surprise? Yeah, kinda like Jalabert in 1994/1995, Damiano Cunego in 2004 or Di Luca in 2007 or Armstrong in 1998/1999. Do I want him to win a GT? No, not really. For clinical reasons that is.

 

[The Hitch]

that most of the cyclists do the same hence the Vuelta will never have the strong fields you see in the Giro or the Tour(or the stars have already done the for mentioned GTs and are on the way down in their peak form)

If Peter Velits can come third in his first Vuelta(and will be second) than it's not impossible to imagine Gilbert could one day do well in a GC of the Vuelta in a weak field(like last year with Anton crashing out, Schleck still suffering from his injuries, etc) with no real mountainous stages à la Angliru.

Will he have to change his style, body and program? Obviously. I said he could, not he would or he will.

Would it be a surprise? Yeah, kinda like Jalabert in 1994/1995, Damiano Cunego in 2004 or Di Luca in 2007 or Armstrong in 1998/1999. Do I want him to win a GT? No, not really. For clinical reasons that is.

Hang on a sec. I remember you saying in a very similar situation, that Valverde (whose actually contested big bunch sprints many times), would not be able to take on Cav and Farrar in bunch sprints if he dropped the climbing the tting and all that and focused only on sprints.

Yet you believe that Gilbert, whose never even shown anything in either hc mountains nor tts, would be able to become a gt rider?

Though what is probably a better example is how you feel that Spartacus will never be able to make the (small by comparison) step from super tter and cobbles rider to Ardennes rider, but you feel Gilbert could make the ginormous leap to gt contender from 1 day hills racer extraordinaire.

 

[El Pistolero]

Hang on a sec. I remember you saying in a very similar situation, that Valverde (whose actually contested big bunch sprints many times), would not be able to take on Cav and Farrar in bunch sprints if he dropped the climbing the tting and all that and focused only on sprints.

Yet you believe that Gilbert, whose never even shown anything in either hc mountains nor tts, would be able to become a gt rider?

Cav= best sprinter

Contador, AS, FS, Samu, Basso, Igor Anton, Nibali, Scarponi, Valverde, Cuddles etc= great climbers

I don't believe Gilbert will ever be able to climb on their levels(on their peaks). But with a little luck that isn't needed to win the Vuelta or at least do well in it.

It's going to have to be a weak field at the Vuelta, kinda like last year and he'll have to focus his season on it(like Mosquera)

Peter Velits came second last year. He even was part of the Cavendish sprinting train for crying out loud...

Last year he didn't show anything on the steep short climbs and now he can win those too. It's going to be great to seem him at the Tour this year as a super domestique for VDB2. And I expect him to win 1-3 stages while at it. Most likely just one.

There have been more obscure winners of GTs already.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Troll fight!

 

[Parrulo]

oh tbh i am surprised the "gilbert can win a GT with a weak field" talk hasn't started earlier.

btw what makes velits such a great example of a weak field and weak parcours?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Velits rode to 12th in the TT-heavy Tour de Suisse in 2009 and was 31st in the Tour, having been amongst the first home behind the break in the Saint-Girons and Tarbes stages, and outsprinting Thor in Colmar.

In the 2009-10 offseason it was noted more than once that HTC top brass had commented on his having amazingly high natural abilities that simply hadn't been nurtured in the less than ideal situation of Milram.

He was 26th to Xorret del Catí, a steep climb, losing a minute and a half on most GC contenders. He was 13th to Pal, losing a further minute to the winner, and that's quite an easy climb. He lost 45 seconds to Rodríguez on Peña Cabarga, which is only 6km long, and of course Antón crashed out and took a bunch of other contenders with him. The 9th to Lagos de Covadonga is the first real shock result to be honest, but then again the likes of Stijn Devolder stayed with the GC guys to Covadonga in 2007. On Cotobello he cracked and lost 90-120 seconds on the main contenders. However, after the rest day he took 2 minutes out of people on the ITT, then gutsed it out on Bola del Mundo when everybody was content to let Mosquera and Nibali fight out the GC.

Yes, his results were pretty shocking, especially that ITT victory. But he's still improving, young, and had moved into a much more professional set-up.

Gilbert lost nearly 3 minutes on Xorret del Catí, and nearly 8 minutes on Pal. That's one short steep climb and one long gradual one. I don't see him as being able to transform the way Velits did because Gilbert's not going to gain those 2 minutes back on everybody in an ITT anywhere. And let's also remember that with Antón crashing out and taking out at least two of Caisse d'Epargne's riders who were capable of being in the top 10 (and with so many riders in the top 10 but no leader they could feasibly have thrown many an attack out there, which could have hurt Velits on a stage where he struggled like the Cotobello one), plus Menchov having a poor time and Fränk Schleck not being fully over an injury, the Vuelta field was actually much stronger than it looked at the end. If those guys hadn't crashed or had been on form, they were further obstacles to Velits' unlikely podium.

In order to make himself into a probably-not-going-to-have-any-success-anyway GC contender, Gilbert would have to sacrifice a lot of what makes him so good right now, so he shouldn't even think about it.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert took the Vuelta as prep, so his time losses don't mean that much. And I never said he should do it, I just said he could do it.

Actually surprised someone as crappy as Velits could get second in Vuelta. Yeah, he will improve and he did good for his age, but it never the less was crappy.

 

[roundabout]

a couple of notes

Devolder finished 3rd after being in the break in 2007

Gilbert had a pretty bad fall before the stage to Xorret del Catí so he could have done better on that stage in my opinion (how much better is the question).

 

[La Pandera]

that most of the cyclists do the same hence the Vuelta will never have the strong fields you see in the Giro or the Tour(or the stars have already done the for mentioned GTs and are on the way down in their peak form)

If Peter Velits can come third in his first Vuelta(and will be second) than it's not impossible to imagine Gilbert could one day do well in a GC of the Vuelta in a weak field(like last year with Anton crashing out, Schleck still suffering from his injuries, etc) with no real mountainous stages à la Angliru.

Will he have to change his style, body and program? Obviously. I said he could, not he would or he will.

Would it be a surprise? Yeah, kinda like Jalabert in 1994/1995, Damiano Cunego in 2004 or Di Luca in 2007 or Armstrong in 1998/1999. Do I want him to win a GT? No, not really. For clinical reasons that is.

We all know, including Gilbert because he has said as much, that he is not nor will he ever be a grand tour contender, so to say that if this and if that is really simply dreaming. Same as the Cancellara contending for the Tour one day or the ridiculous Hincapie for the Tour in 2006, only the blind faithful are believers.

 

[beer_thirty]

the ridiculous Hincapie for the Tour in 2006, only the blind faithful are believers.

Sorry to go briefly off topic here, but wasn't that the saddest thing ever? One mountain stage win from a breakaway and somehow magically he was a grand tour contender. Far and away the silliest thing I've ever seen as a cycling fan. I am sure he didn't believe it himself, but utterly amazing how many bought into it.

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming!

 

[movingtarget]

Gilbert took the Vuelta as prep, so his time losses don't mean that much. And I never said he should do it, I just said he could do it.

Actually surprised someone as crappy as Velits could get second in Vuelta. Yeah, he will improve and he did good for his age, but it never the less was crappy.

A rider that does better than expected is crappy ? Gilbert is too heavy to handle the mountains well. Gilbert has more chance of winning Roubaix than doing well in any stage race. He can't time trial which does not help.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Sorry to go briefly off topic here, but wasn't that the saddest thing ever? One mountain stage win from a breakaway and somehow magically he was a grand tour contender. Far and away the silliest thing I've ever seen as a cycling fan. I am sure he didn't believe it himself, but utterly amazing how many bought into it.

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming!

And even that mountain stage win was from sucking Pereiro's wheel harder than an industrial strength vacuum.

Djamolidine Abdoujaparov once won a mountain stage from a breakaway. Maybe he could have turned into a Vuelta podium contender too.

 

[El Pistolero]

A rider that does better than expected is crappy ? Gilbert is too heavy to handle the mountains well. Gilbert has more chance of winning Roubaix than doing well in any stage race. He can't time trial which does not help.

Getting second with a performance like that is crappy yeah. If he rode the Tour he would have struggled to get in the top 30.

 

[El Pistolero]

We all know, including Gilbert because he has said as much, that he is not nor will he ever be a grand tour contender, so to say that if this and if that is really simply dreaming. Same as the Cancellara contending for the Tour one day or the ridiculous Hincapie for the Tour in 2006, only the blind faithful are believers.

I'm not saying he will win or do well in the Tour. Gilbert said him self that one day he might want to give the Vuelta GC a shot after he won the Flandrien award in 2010, but that he'll focus to win the Grand Slam of classics first.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

lol @ the notion of an ardennes classic > vuelta.