95th Ronde van Vlaanderen - April 3 2011

[El Pistolero]

IIRC Rolf Sørensen won Tour des Flandres in '97

Bartoli Flanders in '96 and Luik in '97

I meant over a whole career.

 

[Andy99]

Definitely day of the year. Anyone else going to the race?

Tommeke is our big hope of course, but he has his doubts about being 100% himself (and in my eyes, it looks like he isn't too), while he needs to be 105% to beat Cancellara. So, I guess another demonstration from Canc...

Great forum btw

Yep - will be there. Not sure exactly where yet, but will be somewhere with Duvel in hand

 

[Luis Ocaña]

Yep - will be there. Not sure exactly where yet, but will be somewhere with Duvel in hand

I'll go for Westmalle Tripel, but cheers anyway I think I'll do the Muur again. Best memories, for sure.

 

[Flamin]

Yep - will be there. Not sure exactly where yet, but will be somewhere with Duvel in hand

I'll go for Westmalle Tripel, but cheers anyway I think I'll do the Muur again. Best memories there, for sure.

 

[The Hitch]

Would love Boonen to win. Ballan Steegmans

But Cancellara is fine by me.

Anyone but Gilbert is fine really.

Will Canc change bikes 100k from the finish?

Also i dont get the Candelabra joke.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I have a gut feeling we will have surprise this year meaning not Boonen or Cancellara. Devolder? Ballan? Gilbert? Nuyens? O'Grady? Hoste?

To be considered as a non-surprise along with Canc, I'm glad to see someone else thinks Tommeke has a chance.
I'm hoping for Boonen.

 

[boomcie]

To be considered as a non-surprise along with Canc, I'm glad to see someone else thinks Tommeke has a chance.
I'm hoping for Boonen.

I think most sane people count Tom amongst the favorites for Sunday.

 

[El Pistolero]

Would love Boonen to win. Ballan Steegmans

But Cancellara is fine by me.

Anyone but Gilbert is fine really.

Will Canc change bikes 100k from the finish?

Also i dont get the Candelabra joke.

Now you jinxed it, Gilbert has this in the bag

 

[El Pistolero]

I would be really disappointed If Canc doesn't win at least one of them

Still, even when you are the favorite by a large margin (which he is), you still only have a 50% to win, meaning his chance to win both is 25% There is so much that can go wrong in a race like Vlaanderen. In E3 you can have some bad luck, and be strong enough to win, in Vlaanderen that's impossible.

I don't think the other guys will race to make Cancellara lose, it won't be all against one. Boonen and Gilbert will always race to win, most of the other guys are probably happy they can get a second of third place.

“De antikoers is tegenwoordig in de mode. Iedereen volgt, iedereen kijkt naar iedereen, iedereen kijkt naar achter”, aldus Gilbert.

“Pozzato is daar een specialist in. Hij heeft de gewoonte om de favoriet te laten verliezen, dus dan mag hij dat zondag ook doen met Cancellara.”

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I don't think you need a translation to understand what is said with the words Pozzato and Gilbert.

 

[Archibald]

I don't think the other guys will race to make Cancellara lose, it won't be all against one. Boonen and Gilbert will always race to win, most of the other guys are probably happy they can get a second of third place.

could we see a reverse of PR last year when they all sat there waiting for Boonen to chase Cancellara? If Gilbert or Boonen or someone else amongst the favourites make the jump, will the rest try to coat-tail ride Spartacus and leave him to do all the work?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If it ain't Canc or Boonen then it sure as hell won't be Devolder or Ballan. Gilbert maybe, but I doubt it. Flecha probably has the best chance out of the rest of the field.

I don't think Flecha will do too great here, I suspect him to be very good at PR. 2nd place is his

As for boonen, I'm not convinced his win at GW is a true indication of form. He is no way near spartacus anyway. Gilbert looks stronger also, podium awaits him at rvv.

 

[The Hitch]

I do think that a good Phil CAN drop Fabian @ the Muur van Geraardsbergen.

And then what.

Gilberts problem is always the bit after the hill. Sure hes good when you give him a hill to attack on, A goldilocks hill in a way. Not too hot not too cold, it has to be just right.

Not too long, not too short, you have to make sure its just perfect for him. You also have to make sure there arent any mountains before it. You have to make sure there is nothing after it. the race has to finish at the top of the hill. A descent and 5k flat after it and Gilbert will fail like he did as favourite in Geelong. You have to make sure Valverde isnt there.

Then. THen you have Phillipe Gilbert best cyclist in the world Fortunately RVV doesnt finish on the Muur van Geraardsbergen, and there is some flat there.

So yes Gilbert can drop Cancellara on this Muur. Problem is the second the Muur is over and Gilbert gets on the flat, Canc will catch him faster than he can say "Ill only ever win Lombardy and maybe Liege"

 

[The Sheep]

What happened to Leukemans?

 

[mr. tibbs]

Haussler will podium by winning the sprint of the twelve-or-so guys left trailing Spartacus and his final victim. The final victim is the really interesting part, I guess. Will it be Boonen or Gilbert? Two wildcards for this spot are Pippo and Flecha, but I really think it'll be one the former.

1 - Cancellara @ 0:00
2 - Gilbert @ 1:34 (I really don't think Boonen's there this year )
3 - Haussler @ 2:15

The rest of the group will be filled out by Hoste, Pippo, Flecha, Leukmans, a very dispirited Boonen, etc. Maybe Hushovd. Gilbert will blame Pozzato for being beaten so soundly.

And my stomach will be filled out by Duvel and pommes frites.

 

[Anonymous]

I think most sane people count Tom amongst the favorites for Sunday.

Yes, he certainly has a chance to get 2nd...

 

[El Pistolero]

And then what.

Gilberts problem is always the bit after the hill. Sure hes good when you give him a hill to attack on, A goldilocks hill in a way. Not too hot not too cold, it has to be just right.

Not too long, not too short, you have to make sure its just perfect for him. You also have to make sure there arent any mountains before it. You have to make sure there is nothing after it. the race has to finish at the top of the hill. A descent and 5k flat after it and Gilbert will fail like he did as favourite in Geelong. You have to make sure Valverde isnt there.

Then. THen you have Phillipe Gilbert best cyclist in the world Fortunately RVV doesnt finish on the Muur van Geraardsbergen, and there is some flat there.

So yes Gilbert can drop Cancellara on this Muur. Problem is the second the Muur is over and Gilbert gets on the flat, Canc will catch him faster than he can say "Ill only ever win Lombardy and maybe Liege"

As if Cancellara could have stayed clear for 6km against a raging peloton with headwind?

Oh wait, he dropped already on the hills.

You're reasoning that Gilbert can't ride on the flat is based from one race and in that race he was the strongest. Sorry, not good reasoning. He managed just fine on the flat parts of Lombardia twice, in Paris-Tours twice and in the Omloop.
Last time I checked Gilbert actually won Lombardia on a descend and easily held off the favorites on the 20km flat part between the Colina di Sormano and the san fermo della battaglia.

 

[boomcie]

Yes, he certainly has a chance to get 2nd...

Clearly Cancellara is the favorite for Sunday, but the race still has to be ran. A lot can go wrong for Cance.

An overview

1) Tactics...
2) Bad luck
a. Crash(es)
b. Mechanical problem(s)
3) Bad day - bad moment ("fringale" for instance)
4) One or more of the other riders have a really good day

 

[Lanark]

could we see a reverse of PR last year when they all sat there waiting for Boonen to chase Cancellara? If Gilbert or Boonen or someone else amongst the favourites make the jump, will the rest try to coat-tail ride Spartacus and leave him to do all the work?

Could be, but don't forget that Cancellara was the huge favorite for that Roubaix as well, and people still resigned to ride for second place pretty much the moment he jumped.

But Vlaanderen isn't Roubaix. Long solo's are incredibly rare, Devolders probably were the longest, and those were 20km. If Boonen or Gilbert try a long solo, they'll more than likely kill themselves, unless Cancellara has zero domestiques left, but if that's the case, he'll probably be smart enough to attack himself.

If the other guys want to win, they have to make it about tactics, if it's about strength or endurance, Cancellara will always win, eliminate Cancellaras team early on, make sure there is a group of about 8 guys with all the favorites, and Cancellara alone, and then start attacking him. Of course this requires a level of cooperation among the other favorites that's rarely present, and altough Cancellara's team isn't really strong, neither are those of most of his competitors (Quick-Step, Lotto showed decent form, but nothing to suggest they can control de Ronde, Sky is strong, but don't have anyone who can win the race).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Are the cyclingnews editors trolls?

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/the-winners-and-losers-of-e3-harelbeke-and-gent-wevelgem

about boonens win in gent wevelgem

Although his win lacked the spectacular, it was arguably a more impressive ride than Cancellara’s victory the day before. Despite facing stiffer opposition, a course that didn’t suit him and mounting pressure from his team, nation and all those who didn’t want to see Cancellara romp away with the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, Boonen’s delivery of victory should ensure that the Swiss rider won’t have it all his own way over the coming weeks.

This has got to be the biggest joke as of yet.

Also listed as on of the winners. George Hincapie..

For what reason exactly?

 

[Lanark]

As if Cancellara could have stayed clear for 6km against a raging peloton with headwind?

Oh wait, he dropped already on the hills.

You're reasoning that Gilbert can't ride on the flat is based from one race and in that race he was the strongest. Sorry, not good reasoning. He managed just fine on the flat parts of Lombardia twice, in Paris-Tours twice and in the Omloop.

He probably would. Seriously, Gilbert had what, a 30 second lead on the peloton at the top of the last hill (he had a 15 to 20 second lead on his closest competitors, and the peloton was behind that), considering it always takes some time for a peloton gather some troups to set the pace, and Gilbert still was caught only a couple of kilometers after his last attack, you can only conclude he solo was extremely poor. It's not like it was a complete bunch with 10 fresh guys chasing him, it were Brajkovic and 2 or 3 other guys, who were dropped on every hill untill that point.

But I don't even agree with the Hitch that Gilbert would be strong on De Muur. That hill is far too steep for Gilbert (he's rarely good on 20% hills), and he isn't that great on cobblestone hills (Boonen and Cancellara dropped him easily on the Molenberg last year). If Gilbert wants to do something, it should be on the Valkenberg or Tenbosse.

 

[Rocksteady]

My vote is Hushovd. He wrecked with Cav at G-W but he definitely has the will and the stamina for the race. The biggest problem Garmin has had is poor coordination, but they get radios in de Ronde so that should help that.

I would love to see Garmin send a real threat up the road. Get Van Summeren/ Van marke up the road to make the other teams work. Haussler to disappoint I think.

 

[El Pistolero]

He probably would. Seriously, Gilbert had what, a 30 second lead on the peloton at the top of the last hill (he had a 15 to 20 second lead on his closest competitors, and the peloton was behind that), considering it always takes some time for a peloton gather some troups to set the pace, and Gilbert still was caught only a couple of kilometers after his last attack, you can only conclude he solo was extremely poor. It's not like it was a complete bunch with 10 fresh guys chasing him, it were Brajkovic and 2 or 3 other guys, who were dropped on every hill untill that point.

But I don't even agree with the Hitch that Gilbert would be strong on De Muur. That hill is far too steep for Gilbert (he's rarely good on 20% hills), and he isn't that great on cobblestone hills (Boonen and Cancellara dropped him easily on the Molenberg last year). If Gilbert wants to do something, it should be on the Valkenberg or Tenbosse.

Well, then why didn't he do it?

And it was the peloton that caught him, the chasers(with for example Cuddles in it) were grabbed by the peloton before they caught Gilbert.

We have seen many things of Cancellara, but I've never seen him go solo against a still big peloton for 6km long with headwind and without radios and still win.

Muur is steep, but not long. If you can come 6th at FW, you can handle the Muur just fine in terms of steepness.

Besides Gilbert there is no one to threaten Cancellara at the Ronde. He'll do a solo at the Molenberg with still 50km to go then. So, let's not completely write Gilbert off or we might as well not even watch the Ronde.

 

[taiwan]

Cancellara will be marked so heavily and has a rather weak classics team. So while I hope, he can defend his title, I have strong doubts that he might suceed again.

Without going over the top, he could just be that much stronger than everyone else that he can't be marked.

He will be ridiculously closely watched though, and it will make it harder. I could just about see it being a race for the break, as the favourites all get caught up in negative riding.

 

[Lanark]

Well, then why didn't he do it?

We have seen many things of Cancellara, but I've never seen him go solo against a still big peloton for 6km long with headwind and without radios and still win.

Muur is steep, but not long. If you can come 6th at FW, you can handle the Muur just fine in terms of steepness.

Neither have I, but this wasn't a big peloton, it were 25 guys, containing maybe 3 or 4 domestiques. Are you seriously gonna suggest Cancellara couldn't defend a 30 second lead over 6km on such a group?

His result at the Fleche shows that he gets progressively worse the steeper it becomes (because he was much better than anyone in front of him during the hills of Amstel and LBL), his results in the Vuelta last year show the same. I really don't understand why you would expect Gilbert to attack on De Muur of all places. He may be able to handle De Muur fine, but you suggested he would be able to drop Cancellara there, when Cancellara made Boonen (arguably much better than Gilbert on cobbled hills) look like an u23 guy last year on De Muur.

If Gilbert can do anything, it will be on the tarmac hills like Leberg, Tenbosse or Valkenberg.

 

[Jan the Man]

I think Gilbert is the biggest threat to Cancellara this year imo- I think Gilbert's best chance will be if he goes and the group try and let Cancellara do all the chasing.

Boonen could win if it comes down to a sprint.

As for Roubaix I think its between Canc, Boonen and Hushovd.