95th Ronde van Vlaanderen - April 3 2011

[The Hitch]

Well, then why didn't he do it?

He was accused of mechanical doping. He was worried that if he did another superperformance like that they would give him a year holiday.

Also he wasnt on form then. in 09 he beat Tony Martin by 3 minutes catching Larsson in like 10 k and letting him follow his way to 2nd.

In 10 he only pulled out about a minute on David Millar. He clearly wasnt on top form.

But more importantly he had met all his targets for the season. Oman, E3 RVV PR both Tour time trials and Worlds itt.

Winning Worlds RR would have been just selfish. Cancellara is a gent like Indurain. He knows when to let others have a chance.

 

[sublimit]

Clearly Cancellara is the favorite for Sunday, but the race still has to be ran. A lot can go wrong for Cance.

An overview

1) Tactics...
2) Bad luck
a. Crash(es)
b. Mechanical problem(s)
3) Bad day - bad moment ("fringale" for instance)
4) One or more of the other riders have a really good day

This is it, Geraint Thomas and Cav were both taken out by other riders crashing into them from behind. I would of liked to see what both riders could of done at the end but alas not to be.
FDJ and moviestar riders riding like juveniles with hopeless bike control or deliberately taking the riders out.

Probably Canc should be OK as far as crashes go as he recovers so well.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Gilbert can't solo?
Remember his win @ omloop het volk?

 

[El Pistolero]

Neither have I, but this wasn't a big peloton, it were 25 guys, containing maybe 3 or 4 domestiques. Are you seriously gonna suggest Cancellara couldn't defend a 30 second lead over 6km on such a group?

His result at the Fleche shows that he gets progressively worse the steeper it becomes (because he was much better than anyone in front of him during the hills of Amstel and LBL), his results in the Vuelta last year show the same. I really don't understand why you would expect Gilbert to attack on De Muur of all places. He may be able to handle De Muur fine, but you suggested he would be able to drop Cancellara there, when Cancellara made Boonen (arguably much better than Gilbert on cobbled hills) look like an u23 guy last year on De Muur.

If Gilbert can do anything, it will be on the tarmac hills like Leberg, Tenbosse or Valkenberg.

I don't expect him to attack on the Muur, I expect him to sit on Cancellara's wheel. I'm just saying a good Gilbert can drop Cancellara at the Muur.

But from what I've seen so far, Gilbert has progressed each year in the Ronde.

Tactically it wouldn't even be smart for Gilbert to go alone after the Muur. Perhaps after the Bosberg, but it will be hard to shake someone of his wheel there.

 

[El Pistolero]

Neither have I, but this wasn't a big peloton, it were 25 guys, containing maybe 3 or 4 domestiques. Are you seriously gonna suggest Cancellara couldn't defend a 30 second lead over 6km on such a group?

His result at the Fleche shows that he gets progressively worse the steeper it becomes (because he was much better than anyone in front of him during the hills of Amstel and LBL), his results in the Vuelta last year show the same. I really don't understand why you would expect Gilbert to attack on De Muur of all places. He may be able to handle De Muur fine, but you suggested he would be able to drop Cancellara there, when Cancellara made Boonen (arguably much better than Gilbert on cobbled hills) look like an u23 guy last year on De Muur.

If Gilbert can do anything, it will be on the tarmac hills like Leberg, Tenbosse or Valkenberg.

I'm suggesting he couldn't even get a 30 second lead over the first chasing group anyway

Without headwind I can see him doing it yeah. But with? Never.

 

[orangetea]

To be honest it doesnt matter if they chase or not. If he gets a gap its game over. They really need to stick on his weel asap when he makes a move to have a chance.

Then it's up to Filippo... He's good at wheel sticking!

Besides that, I think the non-Cance winners will be Flecha, Boonen or Farrar...

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Without headwind I can see him doing it yeah. But with? Never.

Weather predictions say tailwinds from Geraardsbergen to Meerbeke btw.

 

[boomcie]

He was accused of mechanical doping. He was worried that if he did another superperformance like that they would give him a year holiday.

Also he wasnt on form then. in 09 he beat Tony Martin by 3 minutes catching Larsson in like 10 k and letting him follow his way to 2nd.

In 10 he only pulled out about a minute on David Millar. He clearly wasnt on top form.

But more importantly he had met all his targets for the season. Oman, E3 RVV PR both Tour time trials and Worlds itt.

Winning Worlds RR would have been just selfish. Cancellara is a gent like Indurain. He knows when to let others have a chance.

I honestly can't believe Oman was one of Cance's targets for 2010... He also would have lost that if EBH didn't have to go pee-pee.

 

[El Pistolero]

Weather predictions say tailwinds from Geraardsbergen to Meerbeke btw.

Was hoping for crosswinds. Boonen is usually very good then.

 

[taiwan]

A quick search of the thread indicates that this season's best monument rider is not really being rated. Not someone you'd think of in more selective races, but undoubtedly strong, better than Boonen and Haussler on the Poggio, and clearly able to deal with Cancellara in the right circumstances. Is Goss a potential threat at the weekend?

 

[Jamsque]

Too many hills for Goss, making the selection is going to be much harder than it was at M-SR.

 

[luckyboy]

Nah Goss isn't going to do anything.

 

[taiwan]

Personally I think he'll be quite hard to shake, and is maybe someone for the top 5.

without thinking about it too hard.

 

[Jamsque]

If there is a sprint from a group of 30 for fifth like last year then Goss might be involved.

 

[Lanark]

He could get a top-5 like Farrar last year, but he'll have zero percent chance to win. Even guys like Freire and Zabel never came close to winning Vlaanderen. This is a race decided on the hills, Goss has never shown he is capable of following guys like Boonen, Cancellara and Pozzato on those hills. Maybe he will be a contender one day, but he has to improve a lot to get there.

 

[luckyboy]

Sprinting for 5th isn't really a 'potential threat' though is it?

Anyways the only thing I remember him doing well with cobbles was 3rd to EBH at Gent-Wev.

 

[hfer07]

I want Gilbert to win it- but looking at the Cance's level, I'd say is going to be a tough one-in fact we all know Fabian is going to attack at the bottom of the Kapelmuur & TT his way to the finish...

 

[kurtinsc]

Sprinting for 5th isn't really a 'potential threat' though is it?

Anyways the only thing I remember him doing well with cobbles was 3rd to EBH at Gent-Wev.

3rd in KBK in 2008. 3rd in GW in 2009.

No super results, but he's been solid on the pave in the past.

 

[icefire]

Any chance of rain for the weekend?

 

[L'arriviste]

Any chance of rain for the weekend?

It doesn't tend to rain on the day of the Ronde despite usually having bad weather in the days before. Hasn't done in quite a number of years now. We'll have a better idea later in the week.

 

[LugHugger]

Any chance of rain for the weekend?

Metcheck says 'No' at the moment

 

[El Pistolero]

It doesn't tend to rain on the day of the Ronde despite usually having bad weather in the days before. Hasn't done in quite a number of years now. We'll have a better idea later in the week.

It's been extremely good weather for this time of the month in Belgium.

 

[Aguirre]

i will be very upset if cance drops gilbert and boonen at kapelmuur, uphil in such as short climb Gilbert must have at least same power than Fabian.

Another matter is attacking in flat, anyway i predict a ride against Fabian and someone like Devolder winning there

 

[icefire]

We already saw a 'ride against Fabian' last year on the way to Roubaix and we know how it finished. Let's just hope that going to the car for a snack is not part of that strategy this season.

 

[taiwan]

...anyway i predict a ride against Fabian and someone like Devolder winning there

If the race were to be won a la Devolder this year, wouldn't that mean everyone watching Cancellara (as they will be) while one of his teammates is up the road? Otherwise Cancellara may as well ride. He hasn't really got that many strong classics riders on the team though. Just O'Grady, who is getting on, although he has a great palmares.