Abu Dhabi Tour 2018, Feb 21-25

[Valv.Piti]

Good idea with the time trial IMO, now the race sucks a little bit less (it still blows pretty hard). Very much looking forward to tomorrow - when Valverde is good on flat roads, he us usually pretty good uphill as well.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Kelderman GC favorite, surely

Surely? Hmm, I would still pick Valv.

But Valverde needs a gap + time bonus
Of course he's one of the most like GC winners, but on current form I'd give slightly more favoritism to Kelderman as he just has to hang on and he's always been at his best in these medium length climbs.

Kelderman GC favorite, surely

Valverde only 8 secs behind and there are bonus secs.

But there are bonus seconds for 2nd and 3rd too

The last 300 m are 4%. Enough for Valverde to get a 2 sec gap + 10 bonus secs on a tiny GC group. It's enough if Kelderman gets 3rd but not enough if he gets 2nd.

 

[Netserk]

I doubt Keldermerckx will drop Alaphilippe.

 

[Blanco]

I think Valverde will try to crack Kelderman earlier, Dumoulin could be a big help for Kelderman though...

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

I think Valverde will try to crack Kelderman earlier, Dumoulin could be a big help for Kelderman though...

We will don't know if Dumo is willing to sacrifice himself for Kelderman but right now it looks like their best shot at the overall.

 

[WheelofGear]

The climb is hard. There will not be a sprint or reduced group arriving together.

Valverde is very likely to destroy the rest of the riders based on his Strava.

 

[oliveira]

Should be a nice stage tomorrow. I say the stage will go to a early attacker down at the GC after today.

 

[liamito]

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Jebel-Hafeet/forecasts/1240

Risk of thunderstorms tomorrow

 

[Red Rick]

Honestly I'd just have Dumoulin attack to force Valverde to do work or something like that, if he's in good form.

 

[Anderis]

Craddock 11th today, it's already better than anything he did last season.

 

[Koronin]

Valverde could blow the field apart on that last climb like he did a couple years ago on the final climb in Andalucia or last year in the one stage and climb at Catalonia. Dumoulin and Alaphilippe are really the only two with a shot at staying with him on the final climb and Dumoulin has a 0% shot at outsprinting him. Alaphilippe has a less than 30% shot at out sprinting him. However the climb is longer than the ones we've seen Alaphilippe be able to match Valverde on. If Valverde does blow apart the race on the final climb (which I expect) I would think Dumoulin and Alaphilippe round out the podium.

Valverde put in a great TT on a flat non technical TT course. If he's going that well in a flat power ITT he's going to be climbing even better. Plus he also just put the entire peloton on notice that his TT hasn't suffered due to the crash last summer.

 

[DNP-Old]

Jebel Hafeet is a strange climb, we've seen odd figures come out on top there. I reckon Dennis is still the favorite to take the overall for now. Both the race and the climb itself should suit him and other TT'ers like Castroviejo. ______/ really plays in their hands. If the climbers want something, they'll need to make it hard from bottom to top.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Jebel Hafeet is a strange climb, we've seen odd figures come out on top there. I reckon Dennis is still the favorite to take the overall for now. Both the race and the climb itself should suit him and other TT'ers like Castroviejo. ______/ really plays in their hands. If the climbers want something, they'll need to make it hard from bottom to top.

Valverde is 24 sec from Dennis, and he will eat him alive on that climb. The only question for me is can Kelderman/Dumoulin combo work out Valverde somehow? I think they can't, but we'll see. I expect Movistar train right from the bottom.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Jebel Hafeet is a strange climb, we've seen odd figures come out on top there. I reckon Dennis is still the favorite to take the overall for now. Both the race and the climb itself should suit him and other TT'ers like Castroviejo. ______/ really plays in their hands. If the climbers want something, they'll need to make it hard from bottom to top.

Denis is close to being able to climb with Valverde, nor is Castroviejo. Based on Valverde's Strava, it's highly likely he's planning on blowing the field apart from the lower parts of the climb. If it was Dumoulin who had that lead he might be able to hang onto it. However, he'll most likely shed a little time. Alaphilippe is the one most likely to be able to climb with Valverde, but he's not as good of a climber. The way the TT played out, Valverde has to be the favorite going into tomorrow.

 

[can3478]

Re: Re:

Jebel Hafeet is a strange climb, we've seen odd figures come out on top there. I reckon Dennis is still the favorite to take the overall for now. Both the race and the climb itself should suit him and other TT'ers like Castroviejo. ______/ really plays in their hands. If the climbers want something, they'll need to make it hard from bottom to top.

Denis is close to being able to climb with Valverde, nor is Castroviejo. Based on Valverde's Strava, it's highly likely he's planning on blowing the field apart from the lower parts of the climb. If it was Dumoulin who had that lead he might be able to hang onto it. However, he'll most likely shed a little time. Alaphilippe is the one most likely to be able to climb with Valverde, but he's not as good of a climber. The way the TT played out, Valverde has to be the favorite going into tomorrow.

Factoring in bonus time and headwind, I still think Valverde is the favorite to win tomorrow.

 

[Escarabajo]

Based on Strava???
Are we basing our predictions based on Strava now?

Valverde is good because he is! I don't care what Strava says.

Are we ignoring Kelderman too much? I think he has a good shot of winning.

I hope for good racing tomorrow!

PD: After reviewing in more detail I see that Valverde is now the overwhelming favorite. All depends if Movistar can control de race for him. He can finish it up towards the end.

 

[Koronin]

Based on the fact that Valverde is good and is the best climber in the group that really have any shot at this at this point. Also based on the fact that he is very capable of blowing a race apart on the final climb of any, esp early season race as he did two years ago at Andalucia and last year at Catalonia. Also add in a 10 second time bonus for winning the stage and it's highly unlikely that Denis doesn't shed time on the climb and very unlikely Kelderman finishes 2nd. Alaphilippe is most likely to get 2nd on the stage and the time bonus that goes with it. Plus Valverde and Alaphilippe are the two that in the last KM of the race and get a couple of seconds of time on anyone else who's there.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Based on Strava???
Are we basing our predictions based on Strava now?

Lol!!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I think Valverde will try to crack Kelderman earlier, Dumoulin could be a big help for Kelderman though...

We will don't know if Dumo is willing to sacrifice himself for Kelderman but right now it looks like their best shot at the overall.

Dumoulins reaction reads he is not done with this race yet. He felt good.

edit: looked positively pissed

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

Jebel Hafeet is a strange climb, we've seen odd figures come out on top there. I reckon Dennis is still the favorite to take the overall for now. Both the race and the climb itself should suit him and other TT'ers like Castroviejo. ______/ really plays in their hands. If the climbers want something, they'll need to make it hard from bottom to top.

Denis is close to being able to climb with Valverde, nor is Castroviejo. Based on Valverde's Strava, it's highly likely he's planning on blowing the field apart from the lower parts of the climb. If it was Dumoulin who had that lead he might be able to hang onto it. However, he'll most likely shed a little time. Alaphilippe is the one most likely to be able to climb with Valverde, but he's not as good of a climber. The way the TT played out, Valverde has to be the favorite going into tomorrow.

Dennis and Castroviejo each held their own on Terminillo in Tirreno last year, on a tougher stage with a higher level of competition. Stranger things have happened on Jebel Hafeet. We've had the likes of Kangert and Costa beat Contador, Quintana, Aru, Nibali and Bardet. I'm not saying they're certainly going to win, but don't be surprised.

 

[Velolover2]

Dennis will be destoryed. I think he even admitted that his climbing isn't at an optimal level today.

Castroviejo could surprise but not enough to overall victory. He is extremely light for a time trialist. Maybe a podium if he is really, really good but a top 5 is a more realistic goal.

It's Valverde vs. Kelderman/Dumo with Zakarin as a joker. I think it's too long and monotonous for Alaphilippe even if it's only a single MTF. He goat roasted by the Colombians on a easer climb like Salento.

If you can mention Alaphilippe, then why not Ulissi as well? He isn't that far behind.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Based on the fact that Valverde is good and is the best climber in the group that really have any shot at this at this point. Also based on the fact that he is very capable of blowing a race apart on the final climb of any, esp early season race as he did two years ago at Andalucia and last year at Catalonia. Also add in a 10 second time bonus for winning the stage and it's highly unlikely that Denis doesn't shed time on the climb and very unlikely Kelderman finishes 2nd. Alaphilippe is most likely to get 2nd on the stage and the time bonus that goes with it. Plus Valverde and Alaphilippe are the two that in the last KM of the race and get a couple of seconds of time on anyone else who's there.

I wouldn't rate Alaphilippe so high for tomorrow. I mean he's good, but there are more than few better climbers than him in this field. If Valverde really wants to blow this race apart, Alaphilippe won't finish 2nd, believe me. If he's there at the end, that will mean the race was conservative and my guess is that Kelderman will be there too, and he could snatch bonus seconds, so Valverde would risk a lot with that approach. My guess is Movistar right from the bottom, and Valverde goes at steepest point. And I see the likes of Lopez, Yates, Aru contesting for the win and bonus, not Alaphilippe.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Based on the fact that Valverde is good and is the best climber in the group that really have any shot at this at this point. Also based on the fact that he is very capable of blowing a race apart on the final climb of any, esp early season race as he did two years ago at Andalucia and last year at Catalonia. Also add in a 10 second time bonus for winning the stage and it's highly unlikely that Denis doesn't shed time on the climb and very unlikely Kelderman finishes 2nd. Alaphilippe is most likely to get 2nd on the stage and the time bonus that goes with it. Plus Valverde and Alaphilippe are the two that in the last KM of the race and get a couple of seconds of time on anyone else who's there.

I wouldn't rate Alaphilippe so high for tomorrow. I mean he's good, but there are more than few better climbers than him in this field. If Valverde really wants to blow this race apart, Alaphilippe won't finish 2nd, believe me. If he's there at the end, that will mean the race was conservative and my guess is that Kelderman will be there too, and he could snatch bonus seconds, so Valverde would risk a lot with that approach. My guess is Movistar right from the bottom, and Valverde goes at steepest point. And I see the likes of Lopez, Yates, Aru contesting for the win and bonus, not Alaphilippe.

Good point on that as this may be too long of a climb for Alaphilippe. If it's Lopez, Yates, and Aru with Valverde, those three are racing for 2nd and 3rd as we know they can't out sprint Valverde either. I do think Movistar and Valverde will blow it apart on the climb. Plus this is an early season race meaning Valverde is even more likely to try to blow things apart on the climb.

 

[yaco]

Valverde and Kelderman are clearly the two favorites but there are others who could take the stage without surprising like Lopez, Yates, Majka, Woods etc - Could very well be two races today.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

There is headwind on the climb so that is not so good for the attackers