After 2nd restday, Who will win this Giro? ('14)

[Netserk]

Current GC:

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Aru got a nice 6 sec lead on Quintana, but I am not sure if it is quite enough. Had it been 20 seconds we would have a clear favourite.

 

[Netserk]

My prediction:

1st: Quintana
2nd: Uran
3rd: Pozzovivo
4th: Majka
5th: Aru

With 3rd-5th close to each other.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Evans
Quintana
Uran
Pozzovivo
Majka

 

[The Hitch]

the last few years of cycling and especially giro have taught me to expect everyone to accept their current position and soft pedal the next 2 weeks. If I was gm of opqs though I would be looking at the two teammates I have within 4.minutes ag2r have one and Saxo have 2 under 10 minutes. Usually when a gc leader has a big gap like this it's because a mountain stage killed everyone and there's 10 minutes between the top 15. But right now there are so many potential dangers in the breakaway, nor just from gc teams but also voeckler 2011, types. Bmc is going to be stretched thin.and 1 minute to uran, another 1 to 10th, that's a catch 22. It's enough a time gap that he is forced to try and defend it to the end, but nowhere near enough that he isn't risking getting totally isolated and ganged up on by doing so.

The cycling I grew up with Evans would imo be in quite a bad position. If he gets to the tt and extends a minute on everyone, then if will be different.

Uran is in the best position imo. Him to spoil Quintana's first Colombian in 25 century to win a gt record, and ironically make riding the giro he so didn't want to take on, the best decision of his life.

But if nairo recovers it's not even going to be close.

 

[greenedge]

Voted for Evans- he looks to have the goods . Yes BMC might be stretched but it's better to have an advantage than none- and after the ITT he can't afford to give time away in the mountains (Voeckler style).

Hopefully Majka recovers (he's injured a bit right) and I hooe he can podium- even though Uran and Quintana should be able to podium (if not win even )

 

[rhubroma]

It's impossible to tell, not before the Barolo TT and the Oropa MTF that is will we even begin to render the picture more transparent.

Barolo should, in theory, see Evans consolidate his lead, although how much against Quintana and Pozzovivo et all will be significant. At the same time these two climbers will already have to drop Evans and a handful of other riders to begin to see their chances increase appreciably on the climb to Oropa.

Of course afterwards is still Gavia-Stelvio-Val Martello Martelltal, then the MTT and Zoncolan, so no rider can in a relatively tight GC feel at all secure before the last of these major exams.

This Giro could still be an enigma going into the third week as a result.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Difficult to judge still.

Evans and Pozzo showed form prior to the Giro and both continue to look pretty good.

Outside of San Luis Quintana has looked like placement rider, so is this just a continuation or will he step up in the 3rd week?

Not buying Basso, just PR imo.

Open race with some gaps in GC.

No favorite for me anymore.

 

[barmaher]

I have been following cycling on and off for over 25 years. And intensely for the last 4-5 years. And I can honestly say that I don't have a clue. In fact, not since Sastre's Tour de France have I been so confused as to who will win a Grand Tour. I have been pretty confident before most of the time, (but rarely right!)

I think Quintana is favourite, but I don't think he is as good as others on here think he is. I don't see any reason why Pozzovivo will be any stronger in Week 3 than he has been in the past. Evans hasn't really been tested on terrain that should show him up yet.

Something tells me Majka is going to ride very strongly, and if forced to pick a danger to Quintana, it would be him or Uran.

So I will go with the following tentative Top 5:

Rafal Majka
Nairo Quintana
Rigoberto Uran Uran
Wilco Keldermann
Cadel Evans

 

[jens_attacks]

most likely nairo of course.
still voted for ivan basso

 

[rainman]

There's still quite a few unanswered questions so far.
How weak are Movistar? Were they bluffing/saving matches the other day when they peeled off the front unexpectedly?
Whats Quintana's mindset? Is he champion material or not?
How will Evans go in the Dolomites and TT?
The weather on the high cols could have a bearing.
Majka with super doms Roche and Rogers could be dark horse.
But I'll stick with my Cadel vote, just about. Uran, Quintana to podium.

 

[Cookster15]

Voted for Evans but still by no means confident. After the TT we will have a much better idea how each rider is really going. Purito is gone and Quintana does seem to have some problems so that will make it very interesting.

 

[Flamin]

There's still quite a few unanswered questions so far.
How weak are Movistar? Were they bluffing/saving matches the other day when they peeled off the front unexpectedly?
Whats Quintana's mindset? Is he champion material or not?
How will Evans go in the Dolomites and TT?
The weather on the high cols could have a bearing.
Majka with super doms Roche and Rogers could be dark horse.
But I'll stick with my Cadel vote, just about. Uran, Quintana to podium.

Based on the many bandages half the team are carrying, I guess they are still recovering from the Montecassino massacre. They should get better in the coming days again.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I think Evans could lose the jersey after Thursday's ITT to Uran already, who seems to be going well and isn't that far behind.

Obviously I'm still backing Quintana ...right now... as he's by far the best GT specialist / most consistent climber of the bunch. He doesn't have to be 100% in order to win

 

[darwin553]

You know my answer!

 

[King Boonen]

Very difficult. Cadel looks good though...

 

[Rajna31]

My vote goes to Uran. He quietly was always where he was supposed to be (Montecassino being the exemption but other than Cadel nobody survived that crash), is a good GT rider with OK TT skills and cosnistent climbing, is in the best position as he doesn't have to defend the pink just yet but is ahead of all his rivals, and seems to have the strongest domestiques in Poels and Brambilla (that could change though).

If he is on form (and so far there is no indication that he won't be for the 3rd week), I can't see Evans retaining his lead over him and his lead over Quintana is enough for him even if Quintana gets into an OK shape by the 3rd week. So IMO the only 2 scenarios in which he doesn't win is if he is not on form or Quintana gets to 100%. Even thought both scenarios can happen, neither seem likely ATM.

 

[SafeBet]

This is what I can assess now:

- Quintana: blame it on the crash or lack of form, he's not where he should be going into the second week. I'm very surprised he didn't make a move on saturday. Plus his team has been abysmal thus far, while it should have been the strongest in the race.

- Evans: I was expecting such a start, after seeing what he did in Trentino. Question is: can he keeps his peak going? I don't think so. Morabito as good as I've seen him though. Still waiting for Samu though.

- Uran: second position while being under the radar in basically each stage. Dark horse indeed. Won't be easy for Quintana to put much time into him.

- Pozzovivo: don't know what to do with him. It's true we've seen him on the attack before in the first week of a Giro. Still, I've got a feeling he's never been as strong as now and can't forget his Vuelta TT.

- Majka, Aru: they've been riding conservatively thus far. Too much for my liking, but I understand it: you're young, you wanna be sure you can stay with the best. Now they know, and they need to show their balls.

- Basso: realistically we're looking at a top5 as a best case scenario.

- Kelderman: curious to see what he can do in multimountain stages. He's been more visible than other youngsters, which is good. I'd love to see him smash the ITT.

- Hesjedal: see Basso.

- Rolland: very active last week. Is he here for the GC? More likely going after mountain jersey or a stage. But nice to see a frenchman coming to the Giro with some ambition.

 

[Pentacycle]

Pozzovivo, IF he stays in his current shape.

 

[Afrank]

Sticking with my main man Nairito.
2. Pozzovivo
3. Evans
4. Uran
5. Aru

 

[classicomano]

This will be a breeze for Evans, no contest.

 

[Carols]

Honestly I have No Idea!!!! I'm thinking it might be Uran or Pozzo, someone unheralded. The TT will tell us much more though.

The race lost some interest for me once Purito had to withdraw

 

[WillemS]

I don't think the current GC tells us much about the respective peak level of the top contenders, as I attribute more of the variance to crashes than to strength differences.

Evans has a fortunate time bonus, a bonus he'll need to counter the losses he's going to suffer in some of the mountain stages. However, I doubt if it's going to be enough, especially given the Grappa ITT/Zoncolan combination (stage 19 & 20). I don't see Evans minimizing losses to riders like Quintana on the Zoncolan after a MTT.

 

[rhubroma]

This is what I can assess now:

- Quintana: blame it on the crash or lack of form, he's not where he should be going into the second week. I'm very surprised he didn't make a move on saturday. Plus his team has been abysmal thus far, while it should have been the strongest in the race.

- Evans: I was expecting such a start, after seeing what he did in Trentino. Question is: can he keeps his peak going? I don't think so. Morabito as good as I've seen him though. Still waiting for Samu though.

- Uran: second position while being under the radar in basically each stage. Dark horse indeed. Won't be easy for Quintana to put much time into him.

- Pozzovivo: don't know what to do with him. It's true we've seen him on the attack before in the first week of a Giro. Still, I've got a feeling he's never been as strong as now and can't forget his Vuelta TT.

- Majka, Aru: they've been riding conservatively thus far. Too much for my liking, but I understand it: you're young, you wanna be sure you can stay with the best. Now they know, and they need to show their balls.

- Basso: realistically we're looking at a top5 as a best case scenario.

- Kelderman: curious to see what he can do in multimountain stages. He's been more visible than other youngsters, which is good. I'd love to see him smash the ITT.

- Hesjedal: see Basso.

- Rolland: very active last week. Is he here for the GC? More likely going after mountain jersey or a stage. But nice to see a frenchman coming to the Giro with some ambition.

This is, more or less, what any rational assessment should conclude.

One of the things that has annoyed me in the Italian dailies is that they have billed Quintana as "the best climber in the world," no doubt as a publicity stunt, when, in reality, he was dropped by Froome in last year's Tour and by an on form Contador (which has nothing to do with the Spaniard's status in the Tour last go around) at Tirreno this year. Thus he can't be considered as such, even if it's convenient for the Giro to lay such a claim.

I have nothing against the Colombian, mind you. Although a stellar performance once at the Tour, especially in one's early career, needs to be backed with the goods subsequently before such a claim can be made with any validity, but I have not seen it.

While he's obviously got tremendous ability and potential, he's not the same Quintana we saw last July. If, and it remains to be seen, he becomes that Quintana in the last week of this Giro, then and only then, does he become a serious challenge for overall victory. As it stands though, it is reasonable to harbor doubts that the Columbian can find his best form in this Giro, a circumstance that’s only made more complicated, as he himself has claimed, while suffering with pain in his buttock from the big crash to Montecassino,

As I mentioned before, we need both the Barolo TT and the Oropa MTF to have a clearer picture of what could be expected from the major contenders going into the final week. This goes for Cadel as well, because he’s been known to have an off day in the last week of a GT.

I'm most curious to see how Pozzovivo will be situated at the top of Oropa. It's right to have misgivings about what we can expect from him in the final GC, but I have a hunch that he has found himself graced with unprecedented form in the manner in which Quintana was at last year's Tour. He himself admits he has never been this strong.

I could be wrong of course, but if he maintains this form into the final week, then his chances for overall victory increase appreciably, while the podium is practically guaranteed.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

It can pay to be the leader of the race.

More pics here: http://www.steephill.tv/2014/giro-d-italia/photos/stage-09/