After 2nd restday, Who will win this Giro? ('14)

[Akuryo]

Rigo all the way. He seemed so relaxed and comfortable in his last few interviews. He looks so calm and he is the one who's in the best position of all at the moment.

 

[oncehadhair]

It is great theatre atm - there is no clear winner this early on. Hopefully it will still be undecided in another week so it will be worth watching.

 

[The Hitch]

Some people here maybe haven't seen zoncolan before (it's been a while and last time there wasn't much of a gc battle). But it can't be lumped in with other mountains. Zoncolan ovaro is the hardest climb in professional cycling and done at the end of the 3d week (as opposed to end of the second as before) it's going to be the single hardest ascent in the history of the sport.

Slipstream is so much lower than usual there's very little pink jersey advantage. Evans actually blew on zoncolan last time because he tried to stay with basso so long snd while on all other climbs it's worth going into the red to keep drafting, it screwed him.

Evans will have to either have at least a minute going into zoncolan and ride tempo hoping opponents blow, or he will have to give the greatest performance of his entire career, at the age of 37 to win.

This race to me has many parallels with the 2010 eidirion - grappa-Zoncolan, Evans-basso, lesser favorite defending advantage against pack of pre race favourites. Most importantly of all perhaps everyone calling the race after the first week, yet the gaps could prove to be totally insignificant by the end of the mountains even if this is an easier course.

And lets not forget who came second in 2010...

Evans was expected to come second. Win even. Going in he was considered the best rider in the race and the giro was seen as being Evans vs Sastre vs maybe pellizoti. Sastre got Ill (and old) and pellizoti got caught leaving basso, scarponi, cunego, Nibali, vino, all riders Evans was expected to defeat quite easily at that stage. Losing over a minute on zoncolan was a disaster for him and in a few minutes he went from being favourite for the race to long shot.

Yep, plus Evans also made up 28 sec on Basso and 20 sec on Nibali in the MTT. The climb itself that year was very comparable to Monte Grappa - steeper if anything. But this is 2014, not 2010 and Cadel is now 37. Lets see.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/giro-ditalia-2010/stage-16/results

The climb they did that year for the tt was kronplatz which is like one of the 5 hardest climbs in world cycling and so steep they can only tt it and having a road race there is not possible.

So yes it was steeper. Shorter too though.

But they did also do Monte grappa in 2010 and Evans was dropped on it towards the end. Taking time on basso on kronplatz was impressive but as I said he was expected to.

That said a good omen for Evans perhaps is that the winner of that stage, was the same age Evans is now.

 

[The Hitch]

Btw the race is going to go up and around 2000m a number of times and on g-s-vm it is going to go up to 2500 and 2750 and Quintana and uran are both from Andean parts of Colombia growing up at high altitudes. Uran around 1800m above sea level and Quintana almost 3000.

That is a huge advantage to uran and Quintana (if healthy) people don't realize. Neither gt Quintana has done so far has gone above 2000m nor from what I can remember have been any of his other major wins -tourmalet and joux planne both under 2000 as most Burgos climbs tend to be. Even still going to 1800+ probably already helped him.

considering his even by Colombian standards high birth elevation, one shudders to think how great a climber he can be on stages that go into the really high mountains, as we will see particularly on Tuesday.

Last time uran went to 2000m was the best mountain performance of his life (tre cime-2300) and Colombia 2-3-4d the stage.

There was a Trentino stage a few years ago to pordoi - 2300 m and atapuma and betancur came 1-2. The day before there was a brutal mtf that only finished 1000m above sea level and both those riders were absolutely nowhere. They showed very little mountain ability that entire season.

I think that's really going to work in their favour, and if the val martelo stage (by far the most important one altitude wise) is raced hard up stelvio and Gavia, they are going to go into the final ascent so much fresher than their opponents. On 3 other stages they go to 1700 do it could also be a factor.

 

[goggalor]

Depends on which rider times his peak the best. If they all hit it perfectly in the third week, then Quintana, no question. He'll drop Evans like a stone on Zoncolan. If he misses slightly, and at the same time Uran finds his climbing legs and Evans improves on his Trentino form, it could be very very close.

 

[42x16ss]

Btw the race is going to go up and around 2000m a number of times and on g-s-vm it is going to go up to 2500 and 2750 and Quintana and uran are both from Andean parts of Colombia growing up at high altitudes. Uran around 1800m above sea level and Quintana almost 3000.

That is a huge advantage to uran and Quintana (if healthy) people don't realize. Neither gt Quintana has done so far has gone above 2000m nor from what I can remember have been any of his other major wins -tourmalet and joux planne both under 2000 as most Burgos climbs tend to be. Even still going to 1800+ probably already helped him.

considering his even by Colombian standards high birth elevation, one shudders to think how great a climber he can be on stages that go into the really high mountains, as we will see particularly on Tuesday.

Last time uran went to 2000m was the best mountain performance of his life (tre cime-2300) and Colombia 2-3-4d the stage.

There was a Trentino stage a few years ago to pordoi - 2300 m and atapuma and betancur came 1-2. The day before there was a brutal mtf that only finished 1000m above sea level and both those riders were absolutely nowhere. They showed very little mountain ability that entire season.

I think that's really going to work in their favour, and if the val martelo stage (by far the most important one altitude wise) is raced hard up stelvio and Gavia, they are going to go into the final ascent so much fresher than their opponents. On 3 other stages they go to 1700 do it could also be a factor.

Well said. Quintana coming from an extended period at serious altitude is only going to help on the monster climbs in the 2nd and 3rd week. I'm also curious as to how Castroviejo does as the race goes on as well, as he was training with Nairito in Colombia in preparation.

Evans will be a genuine factor, for sure but Quintana still has too much going for him IMHO.

 

[ILovecycling]

That thought with high altitude came to my mind few days ago.
I agree with Hitch,people dont realise how big factor it can be.Anybody who did climb above 2200 can confirm that its not fun at all.
But for the fair outcome of the race we have to pray for good weather in Dolomites.Do you know how the weather looks like these days?

Ps:shame for colombians that zoncolan is not above 2000
Great analysis hitch

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Cadel was at the front not to avoid crashes, but because that particular climb suited his characteristics and was going for the stage win and/or time bonuses. The others weren't so poorly positioned, but simply terribly unlucky. Cadel didn't anymore make his good luck in this sense, then they made their bad luck.

I don't think that's true. Cadel is always at the front keeping himself out of danger. Just take a look at yesterday's stage. Surely that's not a stage that suited his characteristics, yet he was at the front for the last 10 km's anyway and it kept him out of trouble whereas the other contenders might as well have hit the deck in the crash.

 

[Butterhead]

I have no idea, they all ride like girls, except Ewans who is where he is supposed to be every second of the stages. It´s to early to count Nairo out yet, but he´s the only one who can stir up this gc as I see it.
If he fails its a walk in the park from now on for Ewans.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't think riding at the front in the last km of sprinters stage is smart. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

[ILovecycling]

I don't think riding at the front in the last km of sprinters stage is smart. Quite the opposite in fact.

This.

I have no idea, they all ride like girls, except Ewans who is where he is supposed to be every second of the stages. It´s to early to count Nairo out yet, but he´s the only one who can stir up this gc as I see it.
If he fails its a walk in the park from now on for Ewans.

What about Uran and Pozzovivo,even Majka?
Do you even know what the word zoncolan means?Cuz talk about walk in the park when Evans is not a clear favourite like Froome nor Contador is a bit prematurely.

 

[The Hitch]

I don't think that's true. Cadel is always at the front keeping himself out of danger. Just take a look at yesterday's stage. Surely that's not a stage that suited his characteristics, yet he was at the front for the last 10 km's anyway and it kept him out of trouble whereas the other contenders might as well have hit the deck in the crash.

Well it's different once you are in the pink jersey.

 

[rhubroma]

I don't think that's true. Cadel is always at the front keeping himself out of danger. Just take a look at yesterday's stage. Surely that's not a stage that suited his characteristics, yet he was at the front for the last 10 km's anyway and it kept him out of trouble whereas the other contenders might as well have hit the deck in the crash.

Ok, but that still doesn't negate that the others were not so poorly positioned. Not everyone can be at the very front and with the slick roads in southern Italy such crashes can happen at the front, middle, back, there is no way of knowing.

Cadel continues to ride at the front as yesterday's finish has demonastrated, though, contrary to your analysis, he was a hair from going down for being there.

I don't mean to be overly polemical, however, I don't believe that at Montecassino Cadel "made his own luck" anymore than his rivals that went down "made their misfortune." This was the original point I was addressing.

Normally racing at the front is the prudent thing to do of course, though the particular dynamic of that crash, which took out Rodríguez but not Cadel wasn't to his merit as would have been the case in other situations, but chance, in my opinion.

 

[Netserk]

Poll closed. Results:

Cadel Evans
auscyclefan94, auto de fé, Bavarianrider, Better Call Saul, BigMac, burgyv, chiocciolis_calves, christopherrowe, Cimber, Cookster15, darwin553, deboat, Dedelou, dlwssonic, greenedge, hfer07, howardyou, hughmoore, Jancouver, King Boonen, Lukacek, Marcus135, maxmartin, Moviefan1203, mr. tibbs, msjett, Nastyy, Njbb1995, Nuash65, observer, Old&slow, Oltean_RO, pattycake88, rainman, RichieTheBest, RustyLL, Samson777, senatorrick, Shardi, The Eggman, thequestionmark, Tigerion, tinga1, Trev_S, UlleGigo, Wallace, yetiyeti, Yingge

Rigoberto Uran
Akuryo, b.broadhurst, Baltazar, bikeracer33, Crevaison, De Snelle Duif, DickDastardly, draussen, jaylew, kanari, kevchenko13, Kompakt, markjohnconley, PedalCastro, Peter von, Rajna31, schimmi, shalgo, The fridge in the blue trees, winkybiker

Rafal Majka
bajbar, barmaher, JosephD, metaCYCLE, robertocarlos, sacrifice&hardwork

Domenico Pozzovivo
Aproblem, asdfgh101, BeagRigh, burning, Contadoraus Schlecks, CyclingEnthusiast, Gotland, GWAR79, hokki8, Jaco0505, JaffaGT, King of the Mountains, Lanark, maltiv, nesocip, Pentacycle, Pricey_sky, quiqui, R0BL4MBT0N, RolfSorensen, sciguy, TheRossSeaParty, vino2001, webbie146

Fabio Aru
SafeBet, Vino attacks everyone

Wilco Keldermerckx
Alpechraxler, Apeman, B'baas, classicomano, Der Effe, Eyeballs Out, Karbonkel, lennart

Nairo Quintana
18-Valve. (pithy), 42x16ss, Aapjes, Afrank, Amsterdam, archa55, Bumeington, Cance > TheRest, Carstenbf, CycloAndy, Dekker_Tifosi, forkboy84, Geraint Too Fast, Gloin22, goggalor, Googol, gustienordic, Guybrush, GuyIncognito, halfnormal, Hedser, Hugo Koblet, Hugo87, ILovecycling, Imatool, ItalianGigolo, Jack_89, Jspear, Jukebox, King Of The Wolds, l.Harm, Maaaaaaaarten, Malmeren, Marco Pantani, Miburo, minessa, Mkind07, More Strides than Rides, Netserk, nuvolablu, Opalius, Parrulo, phanatic, PirazziAttacksVino, plooton, Potomac, Pulpstar, Red Rick, Richeypen, Ruby United, saunaking, scholar, Simply The Best, Skibby the bush kangaroo, Spicco, stetre76, Swede1, UpTheRoad, VeloHuman, vladimir, Wallenquist, WillemS, woodenswan, yespatterns

Robert Kiserlovski
painai

Ivan Basso
gerundium, HSNHSN, jens_attacks

Other/Vino
LaFlorecita, Sky High

 

[The Hitch]

I never voted and now its closed. Would go for basso though, just for fun though in reality I think Quintana is fav followed by uran.

 

[ILovecycling]

@Flo
Who is your pick?(from 'others')

 

[Netserk]

Cadel Evans
auscyclefan94, auto de fé, Bavarianrider, Better Call Saul, BigMac, burgyv, chiocciolis_calves, christopherrowe, Cimber, Cookster15, darwin553, deboat, Dedelou, dlwssonic, greenedge, hfer07, howardyou, hughmoore, Jancouver, King Boonen, Lukacek, Marcus135, maxmartin, Moviefan1203, mr. tibbs, msjett, Nastyy, Njbb1995, Nuash65, observer, Old&slow, Oltean_RO, pattycake88, rainman, RichieTheBest, RustyLL, Samson777, senatorrick, Shardi, The Eggman, thequestionmark, Tigerion, tinga1, Trev_S, UlleGigo, Wallace, yetiyeti, Yingge

So where will he win it?

 

[King Boonen]

So where will he win it?

Nowhere now.

 

[Pentacycle]

Uran vs. Majka vs. Pozzovivo in the mountains now

 

[Hugo87]

So where will he win it?

You are a bad man.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Weekend should be fun, since Nairo and Domenico got work to do.

But Uran looks like a beast, reminded me of Contador today.

 

[christopherrowe]

So where will he win it?

In my heart?

Ain't over 'til it's over and all that, but yeah...

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

By looking at this poll, the only thing that is certain is that Safebet and me are gonna be best freinds

 

[Akuryo]

I was one of the 20 guys who voted for Uran. Seems we are a big step closer. Did not expect him to get the lead so soon though.

 

[Walkman]

So where will he win it?

Weird time to gloat. How many thought Uran would crush it like he did?