After 2nd restday, Who will win this Giro? ('14)

[shalgo]

I'm going for Uran. He seems to have improved his TT and judging from his relatively weak climbing at Romandie he could be building for a third-week peak. If Quintana were fully healthy, I would still pick him. I just don't believe that Evans can quite keep up on the big stages in the third week, but it is always hard to know with him.

1. Uran
2. Quintana
3. Evans

 

[SafeBet]

One of the things that has annoyed me in the Italian dailies is that they have billed Quintana as "the best climber in the world," no doubt as a publicity stunt, when, in reality, he was dropped by Froome in last year's Tour and by an on form Contador (which has nothing to do with the Spaniard's status in the Tour last go around) at Tirreno this year. Thus he can't be considered as such, even if it's convenient for the Giro to lay such a claim.

At the same time on RAI they keep reminding us how poor of a TTer he is, whithout even checking his results.
They're convinced the likes of Uran will put a couple of minutes into him in the Barolo ITT, which seems rather unlikely.

 

[Escarabajo]

I am surprised not to see more votes for Uran. But I guess this is an English speaking dominated forum and Evans will get that advantage.

I feel like Quintana is not in his best form. Already noticed that in Tirreno. He keeps dragging this form. Uran is where he wants to be. I am rooting for Quintana but Uran looks to be like he is going to spoil his party.

Evans is doing exactly what I was expecting him to do at this moment. So, no surprises there really. When you look at him in the past, statistically speaking, he has failed more times than not during the second and third weeks. And age is not on his side(Although everyone keeps recalling the Horner's Vuelta last year, but that was just the exception). So at this point is still an unknown how he is going to respond, but I would not put my money on him.

 

[Von Mises]

I do not beleieve "saving their matches" or "bluffing". If you are stronger, then you take time. By this, I want to say that if Uran and Quintana have not been able to take time, then it is like Quintana said "do not have legs".

Still, it does not mean that Evans is favourite. Even small movements in form, 1-2% up or down, can make difference. Considering past and considering their age, I think that Quintana and Uran have more chances to go up.

I do not believe in Basso.

Do not know what to make of Majka, Aru or Pozzovivo.

So, I would put Uran and Quintana over Evans here.

 

[rhubroma]

At the same time on RAI they keep reminding us how poor of a TTer he is, whithout even checking his results.
They're convinced the likes of Uran will put a couple of minutes into him in the Barolo ITT, which seems rather unlikely.

The RAI coverage is pure comedy, a blend of people who really know what they are talking about with those that have no idea, but believe themselves to be infallible. For example Alessandra De Stefano is not a rational woman. She's all emotion and doesn't know when reticence is better. Whereas Beppe Conti is a total freeking idiot. I can't believe that guy even has a job commenting on cycling and it's just ridiculous to hear how this blabber mouth actually finds his analysis more perceptive than the retired pros like Garzelli and Martinelli he's forever contesting. Everything he thinks and says is wrong, but this just adds color to the grotesque spectacle.

Apart from this, Garzelli and above all Martinelli are top notch, so the RAI coverage is otherwise excellent. I doubt either of them have underestimated Uran's chances in the TT.

 

[King Boonen]

I am surprised not to see more votes for Uran. But I guess this is an English speaking dominated forum and Evans will get that advantage.

I feel like Quintana is not in his best form. Already noticed that in Tirreno. He keeps dragging this form. Uran is where he wants to be. I am rooting for Quintana but Uran looks to be like he is going to spoil his party.

Evans is doing exactly what I was expecting him to do at this moment. So, no surprises there really. When you look at him in the past, statistically speaking, he has failed more times than not during the second and third weeks. And age is not on his side(Although everyone keeps recalling the Horner's Vuelta last year, but that was just the exception). So at this point is still an unknown how he is going to respond, but I would not put my money on him.

Statistically speaking, he's much more successful than Quintana and Uran.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

1 Quintana
2 Uran
3 Pozzovivo
4 Evans
5 Majka

 

[Marco Pantani]

the last few years of cycling and especially giro have taught me to expect everyone to accept their current position and soft pedal the next 2 weeks.

Very nice.

 

[Escarabajo]

Statistically speaking, he's much more successful than Quintana and Uran.

I guess you are being sarcastic

 

[hfer07]

Based on what has taken place at the moment & looking ahed to this coming week - I can see the following happening:

1. Evans
2. Uran.
3. Quintana

The reason I'm going with this is because the ITT will make Evan's lead even bigger & by the time the "real mountains arrive" the gaps will be wide enough for Cadel to hold on to the Magglia Rosa...

 

[King Boonen]

I guess you are being sarcastic

Nope, I'm not.

 

[Rajna31]

Statistically speaking, he's much more successful than Quintana and Uran.

Of course he is, given that he is almost twice as old as they are. But Uran and has only faded at a GT once during his entire career (at the 2011 Tour), but he matured a lot since, while Quintana has improved significantly during both of his GTs, performing extremely well on the 3rd week climbs.

Then you have Evans who have faded at the last 2 Tours he's ridden and lost a considerable lead to Uran last year at the Giro. Again, sample size is not as big as you'd like but based on these stats, the Colombians should have better endurance than him.

And you still have to consider that the stages so far were either Evans' speciality or were ridden exactly how he likes them. The latter may be a result of the others' weakness, but may very well be just tactics and responding to certain circumstances (e.g. injuries).

 

[maxmartin]

It's impossible to tell, not before the Barolo TT and the Oropa MTF that is will we even begin to render the picture more transparent.

Barolo should, in theory, see Evans consolidate his lead, although how much against Quintana and Pozzovivo et all will be significant. At the same time these two climbers will already have to drop Evans and a handful of other riders to begin to see their chances increase appreciably on the climb to Oropa.

Of course afterwards is still Gavia-Stelvio-Val Martello Martelltal, then the MTT and Zoncolan, so no rider can in a relatively tight GC feel at all secure before the last of these major exams.

This Giro could still be an enigma going into the third week as a result.

yep, it is too early to tell anything really at this point considering how MTF heavy the third week is. But this thread definitely has entertaining value.

 

[VeloHuman]

I don't think the current GC tells us much about the respective peak level of the top contenders, as I attribute more of the variance to crashes than to strength differences.

Evans has a fortunate time bonus, a bonus he'll need to counter the losses he's going to suffer in some of the mountain stages. However, I doubt if it's going to be enough, especially given the Grappa ITT/Zoncolan combination (stage 19 & 20). I don't see Evans minimizing losses to riders like Quintana on the Zoncolan after a MTT.

Very well said. I expected Evans to lose several minutes to Quintana, Uran, Rodriguez, Majka, Pozzo in the high mountains. Purito ain't in it anymore and Cadel picked up a few seconds on his rivals thanks to his TTT and some crashes, but none of the stages we've seen so far have offered any evidence to suggest that Cadel is actually climbing better than those guys right now and the big mountains are yet to come. Evans's current lead is certainly not enough for him to just skate through to Trieste.

 

[maxmartin]

Very well said. I expected Evans to lose several minutes to Quintana, Uran, Rodriguez, Majka, Pozzo in the high mountains. Purito ain't in it anymore and Cadel picked up a few seconds on his rivals thanks to his TTT and some crashes, but none of the stages we've seen so far have offered any evidence to suggest that Cadel is actually climbing better than those guys right now and the big mountains are yet to come. Evans's current lead is certainly not enough for him to just skate through to Trieste.

Nah, just look at where Evans position himself, you know he is in a very decent shape. I doubt he will lose several minutes to all the names you mentioned above. He got Giro 3rd, when he obviously was not in a good condition although MTF was cut short in that Giro.

 

[King Boonen]

Of course he is, given that he is almost twice as old as they are. But Uran and has only faded at a GT once during his entire career (at the 2011 Tour), but he matured a lot since, while Quintana has improved significantly during both of his GTs, performing extremely well on the 3rd week climbs.

Then you have Evans who have faded at the last 2 Tours he's ridden and lost a considerable lead to Uran last year at the Giro. Again, sample size is not as big as you'd like but based on these stats, the Colombians should have better endurance than him.

And you still have to consider that the stages so far were either Evans' speciality or were ridden exactly how he likes them. The latter may be a result of the others' weakness, but may very well be just tactics and responding to certain circumstances (e.g. injuries).

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Quintana, 1 top ten in vuelta 2012 (discounting TTT obviously). Finished 36th, behind Majka. He's performed well in his last GT only when considering potential winners.

Evans didn't train properly for the Giro and still got third, then rode the Tour with an incredibly hard Giro in his legs. His performance there is meaningless.

What performances he has that are not meaningless are loads of podium finishes, a GT victory (that he managed pretty much on his own for large parts of it in the mountains), consistency over several years and victory at the Giro De Trentino this year,

Evans is in pole position, especially with the others throwing away opportunities like they did yesterday.

 

[trifun]

Only a bad day in the high mountains can dislodge Evans.

 

[Rajna31]

Thank you for agreeing with me.

Quintana, 1 top ten in vuelta 2012 (discounting TTT obviously). Finished 36th, behind Majka. He's performed well in his last GT only when considering potential winners.

Evans didn't train properly for the Giro and still got third, then rode the Tour with an incredibly hard Giro in his legs. His performance there is meaningless.

What performances he has that are not meaningless are loads of podium finishes, a GT victory (that he managed pretty much on his own for large parts of it in the mountains), consistency over several years and victory at the Giro De Trentino this year,

Evans is in pole position, especially with the others throwing away opportunities like they did yesterday.

My post was about endurance (fading during the 3rd weeks), and Quintana improved a lot during the 2012 Vuelta as well, he was really strong during in the mountains in the end, providing a lot of help to Valverde. He wasn't nearly as good a climber as he is now or was last year, but he showed his endurance by becoming better as the race progressed. Same thing happened at last year's Tour, where he moved from 8th to 2nd during the last week (he was almost 3 minutes down from 2nd before Ventoux).

Evans has his excuses for fading at the last 2 Tours and last year's Giro, but fact is that he hasn't been able to keep up his 1st week level in any GT since his Tour win, that is the issue here. Good performances in a 4-day race like Trentino don't erase question marks about his current endurance, neither do his achievements from 2011 and earlier. Maybe he'll erase them this weekend, but until then it's legitimate to assume that he'll lose time to the Colombians who have been climbing very well during the final weeks of GTs in the last 2 years.

 

[Jspear]

Quintana will win of course . I still think Cadel podium though. I don't think he'll be able to stay with the "pure" climbers once (and If) they start attacking. It will be about limiting loses for him.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

No worries, mate


ivanbasso ‏@ivanbasso 12s
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[Miburo]

Nah, just look at where Evans position himself, you know he is in a very decent shape. I doubt he will lose several minutes to all the names you mentioned above. He got Giro 3rd, when he obviously was not in a good condition although MTF was cut short in that Giro.

Don't say it like it wasn't that relevant.

It was insanely obvious that in a normal giro with normal MTF's Evans wouldn't even be top 5.

 

[Kwibus]

It's still wide open. It will all come down to the 3rd week.

 

[maxmartin]

Don't say it like it wasn't that relevant.

It was insanely obvious that in a normal giro with normal MTF's Evans wouldn't even be top 5.

that is in your own imagination lol there is no "what if" in the bike race

 

[Cookster15]

Maybe he'll erase them this weekend, but until then it's legitimate to assume that he'll lose time to the Colombians who have been climbing very well during the final weeks of GTs in the last 2 years.

Quintana for sure if he recovers from his injuries. But not so much Uran. Uran's opportunity is in the ITT - not so much week 3 mountains, at least compared to Evans. I think Evans and Uran will be fairly even in the big climbs.

I think most would admit Evans looks stronger now than in 2013 and he does seem to have worked hard on his climbing knowing this Giro route as we saw at Trentino. But really as Kwibus says it is still wide open and too early to predict with any confidence. We will know a lot more after stage 12.

 

[ILovecycling]

Very good thread,nice posts indeed.
I voted for Quintana,but before the start of the Giro I underestimated Uran,cuz of his lack of form,now he is looks strong!It could be Colombian 1-2.On the other hand MajkayPozzovivo look strong.

Only way how Evans can possibly win this Giro imo is Arroyo/Voeckler style.Sooner or later even if Nairo is out of the game (which he is not,of course) other favourites will attack like mad (especially Pozzovivo and maybe the young guns too) and then it will be all about limiting losses for Evans.
And it would be a huge surprise for me if he wins this Giro.