After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[Night Rider]

All those backing Tondo, exit stage left.

All those backing Arroyo, prepare your exit.

 

[ludwig]

It's Funny

We are basically back to Basso vrs. Evans, with Sastre Vino and Nibali as the wildcards. Advantage Basso...for the moment.

 

[Moondance]

All those backing Tondo, exit stage left.

All those backing Arroyo, prepare your exit.

Yup.

We f-ed up. Sastre, might still top three, but he hasn't looked very good in any mountain stage so far... Although the Zoncolan was his best performance so far.

L'Aquila will have just added to the incredible scope of the performance of either Basso or Evans (who are the no. 1 & 2 favorites again)

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

And although Porte has almost lost all his lead to Basso and co, he has not totally crubled yet. Still to see if that guy even knows what crumbling is. Probably not.

 

[Ripper]

I think the mountain TT will be a very good indicator between Basso and Evans. No doubt in my mind that Basso was fresher today after Evans had to TT after Nibali yesterday. The rest day will be a bit of an equalizer regarding climbing ability. Having said this, Evans' lack of a team compared to Leaky likely tips the favour over to the B-man.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Precisely.

You don't need time trial ability in an uphill time trial. It's not a time trial!

huh?

ummm...yes, you do. it IS a time trial. so you need time trial ability. neither of your statements make any sense at all.

evans being a rock solid climber and tter will go quite well here. basso will do well, but his lack of tt strength may hurt him. but he will not lose minutes to evans like some others. basso may even win but not by much if so.

this would actually be a good test stage for wiggins. if i were building for the tour i would like to use a stage like this to gauge my level. might he go for the win?

 

[Ferminal]

All those backing Tondo, exit stage left.

All those backing Arroyo, prepare your exit.

What if I backed both?

 

[saganftw]

What if I backed both?

you should return return to your dungeon and stay there for the rest of your life because you have chosen wrong riders to cheer for...and thats pitifull,you should always pick winners

sastre is slowly geting into form,too bad its last week but podium is possible
im officialy jumping on basso bandwagon,he was very impressive and now with nibali out of contention,with strong team behind him hes top favourite

 

[Cerberus]

huh?

ummm...yes, you do. it IS a time trial. so you need time trial ability. neither of your statements make any sense at all.

Sure they do, the ability to hold an aero posture is crucial for TTing on a flat route, it's hardly going to be a decisive factor on a MTT. Weight also is going to matter far more than on a regular TT. On a regular TT Cancellara would beat Andy Schleck, on this route it would be the other way around. It's hardly rocket science.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Sure they do, the ability to hold an aero posture is crucial for TTing on a flat route, it's hardly going to be a decisive factor on a MTT. Weight also is going to matter far more than on a regular TT. On a regular TT Cancellara would beat Andy Schleck, on this route it would be the other way around. It's hardly rocket science.

right. it's not rocket science. it is still a time trial. even though it is uphill. yeah, weight matters more, aero less. but it's a chrono, not a road race. you still need tt skills. and cadel has those in spades. basso got to be pretty good in his previous incarnation. should be a good battle.

 

[RedheadDane]

And although Porte has almost lost all his lead to Basso and co, he has not totally crubled yet. Still to see if that guy even knows what crumbling is. Probably not.

So far it doesn't look like he does... (Took a quick look through the standing-progress tables on Wikipedia and he was never once out of top-ten. That's... impressive.)

 

[ak-zaaf]

huh?

ummm...yes, you do. it IS a time trial. so you need time trial ability. neither of your statements make any sense at all.

evans being a rock solid climber and tter will go quite well here. basso will do well, but his lack of tt strength may hurt him. but he will not lose minutes to evans like some others. basso may even win but not by much if so.

this would actually be a good test stage for wiggins. if i were building for the tour i would like to use a stage like this to gauge my level. might he go for the win?

It's nothing like a normal TT.
Just look at 2008 results by some climbers and compare them to what they did in a 'normal' (still had 2 climbs in it) TT.

Kronplatz:
1 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas 40.26 (19.142 km/h)
2 Emanuele Sella (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 0.06
3 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni-Androni Giocattoli 0.17
5 Riccardo Riccò (Ita) Saunier Duval - Scott 0.30
6 José Rujano Guillen (Ven) Caisse d'Epargne 0.49
7 Marzio Bruseghin (Ita) Lampre 1.04

Bruseghin as an allrounder takes the Urbino TT.
Climbers there:
Simoni @ 1.02
Ricco @ 2.04
Pellizotti @ 2.09
Sella @ 3.17
Rujano @ 3.37

So for Rujano vs Bruseghin there is almost 4 minutes difference between a regular and a climbing TT.

 

[Zoncolan]

Right now the podium looks to me:
1. Basso
2. Evans
3. Vino

Would love to see the Little Prince win a stage before the end. Maybe the one to Aprica?

 

[RedheadDane]

It's completely open

And I really like how the pre-race favourites didn't go "bummer... lost 12 minutes to the race leader... guess this isn't the Giro to win!" But instead went on a real re-claim lost time mission! Even attacking on a minor climb which normally wouldn't have made any difference as a bunch of them did during stage 12...

(Has... anything about this Giro been "normal"?)