After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[khardung la]

Thanks for this, out of curiosity what makes Castilla y Leon/Mancha different than other regions of Spain?

Castilla y Leon and Castilla La Mancha are basically the old Kingdom of Castilla (together with Madrid, Cantabria, Extremadura, Murcia, big parts of Andalucia and La Rioja). The territory of them both is so big for the Spanish size that obviously called for a quite recent administrative division.

In Castilla we don't feel basically other thing than Spanish, so no one would make a case of his birthplace at all. In some other regions like Catalunya and Pais Vasco some people would make a case (which percentage of the population would be a long discussion for other forum). Anyway not even that would apply to cycling matters. All these guys know each other, have competed and trained together and there is no big "prima donna" in Spanish cycling that is hated big time by the others. Guys like Contador, Freire, Sastre, Valverde etc... are quite reasonable guys with their feet in the ground IMHO....So yes, I could expect some collaboration if team strategies allow for that of course.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Richie Porte will win, he can climb and won the baby giro last year and up until tour of romandie i always thought his strengths was climbing

Yer...! Are you matt keenan as he said the same thing?

Big call, locker.

I like this quote from him today though in an Australian newspaper.

"This really doesn't happen," he told The Australian by phone. "What were they (the seasoned professionals) thinking? 'Thank your mother for the rabbits,' as Rex Hunt would say.

"Even if the Giro ended today, I can look back one day and say I've had it good. This doesn't really happen to a neo-professional, but I do know I'm going to defend the jersey until my **** gets ripped."

Go porte but he will struggle to top 10.

 

[BroDeal]

Evans will win the Giro.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans will win the Giro.

Where will he gain majority of the time? Which stage is what I meant. Everyone is talking about it as an 11 minute gap to porte but porte is no threat. it is annoying hwo wveryone is talking him up so much like he is going to win the giro.

 

[BroDeal]

Where will he gain majority of the time? Which stage is what I meant. Everyone is talking about it as an 11 minute gap to porte but porte is no threat. it is annoying hwo wveryone is talking him up so much like he is going to win the giro.

Most of the guys ahead of him will crumble in the high mountains. Others he will have to take a couple minutes here and few minutes there. He can overtake Sastre with some luck. I think Vino is cooked; he looked terrible during stage 11.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Most of the guys ahead of him will crumble in the high mountains. Others he will have to take a couple minutes here and few minutes there. He can overtake Sastre with some luck. I think Vino is cooked; he looked terrible during stage 11.

we are talking about evans here!

the three threats ahead he is behind are...
CS by 4"01
XT by 7"16
DA by 9"28

 

[karlboss]

throw me in the anything can happen basket. It will be expected that guys who gained time will ride within themselves and try to lose less than 1 or 2 minutes each tough stage for the win, I wouldn't put it past a number of guys up there, I also wouldn't put it past each and everyone of them to dump 10 minutes on a bad day...i love the giro.

 

[Frosty]

On the other hand there is the possibility that some of the guys in the top 10 now will realise that they cant win the Giro overall or even get a podium spot and so will go for a day or two in the Maglia Rosa instead. If Liquigas up the pace on tomorrow or Saturday's stage and Porte goes out the back will we see CdE try to take over the pace setting to get Arroyo in the MR? Or will they bank on being close to the overall win later in the race and save their efforts for then? Could Cervelo try and get Tondo into the MR as an insurance policy against Sastre or Tondo not having the legs on the later stages? Will someone like Efimkin, who seems one of the least likely to finish in the top 10, have Ag2r form a plan to get him the jersey on one stage forcing Saxo Bank to chase, along with anyone else with eyes on the MR for a short time? Sure should be interesting to find out

 

[kjetilraknerud]

I'm really looking forward to this weekend. I still think Liquigas are in a good position, as they have four riders in the top 15. My guess is that we will see early attacks from Agnoli and Kiserlovski, forcing the other teams to chase them down. They might not be big favourites for the overall, but if Arroyo, Tondo, Sastre or Evans want to win the Giro, they can't let them get away. Their teams aren't the strongest, so they might have to do the work on their own. Basso and Nibali can join the ride, and attack when the other big guns have worked hard for 3-4 miles.

 

[thingswelike]

I can't see Wiggo wanting to bury himself before the tour. In fact I'm surprised they put so much effort in on stage 11 to be honest.
Even Vino sounded in his interview that he wasn't going to bury himself. Perhaps he has a TdF podium in mind.
But that doesn't really help me choose between the current top 10. Fireworks on every mountain from now on I think.

 

[Zen Master]

I'm really looking forward to this weekend. I still think Liquigas are in a good position, as they have four riders in the top 15. My guess is that we will see early attacks from Agnoli and Kiserlovski, forcing the other teams to chase them down. They might not be big favourites for the overall, but if Arroyo, Tondo, Sastre or Evans want to win the Giro, they can't let them get away. Their teams aren't the strongest, so they might have to do the work on their own. Basso and Nibali can join the ride, and attack when the other big guns have worked hard for 3-4 miles.

That Liquigas tactic would be definitely great

I can't wait till saturday...

 

[dresch]

Betfair odds currently for the overall winner...

Carlos Sastre 4.70
Cadel Evans 4.70
David Arroyo 7.00
Xavier Tondo 8.20
Alexandere Vinokourov 15.00
Ivan Basso 18.00
Richie Porte 23.00

A few of you Cadel lovechilds need to HTFU, he is still in the hunt. If his form holds I still expect him to win.

 

[Angliru]

Where will he gain majority of the time? Which stage is what I meant. Everyone is talking about it as an 11 minute gap to porte but porte is no threat. it is annoying hwo wveryone is talking him up so much like he is going to win the giro.

I don't recall anyone really seriously talking Porte up. Primarily revelling in his envious position as a neo-pro in pink. Most are talking up Tondo, Arroyo and Sastre. I'm leaning towards Arroyo although I'd have to do some research to see how he does on climbs like the Zoncolan. He could lose it all there.

 

[Zen Master]

I don't recall anyone really seriously talking Porte up. Primarily revelling in his envious position as a neo-pro in pink. Most are talking up Tondo, Arroyo and Sastre. I'm leaning towards Arroyo although I'd have to do some research to see how he does on climbs like the Zoncolan. He could lose it all there.

Results from 2007 Zoncolan stage

1 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir
2 Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 0.07
4 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas 0.31
5 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - Fondital 0.37

....

27 David Arroyo Duran (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 4.26

 

[movingtarget]

Who Will Win ?

If the weather continues as is, anything could happen. The final week is brutal. It will be interesting to see how many finish the race. The race has just been thrown back into the laps of Tondo, Sastre and Arroyo. it will be a war of attrition. I think the mountain stages will have even the best riders, minutes apart. Porte can time trial but can he handle the final week and the big climbs ? A bizarre race but very entertaining except for yesterday's stage which was like watching a team time trial. One area the Giro needs massive improvement in is the communications. None of the commentators seem to know what is going on or who is where on most of the stages. No wonder there was mass confusion on yesterday's stage. Must be frustrating for the team directors. Once again the Eurposports commentator called the wrong rider the winner ! Petrov, was not even listed in the break according to him ! What must Vino and Evans be thinking ?

 

[locker]

Yer...! Are you matt keenan as he said the same thing?.

Great minds think alike haha

 

[Angliru]

Results from 2007 Zoncolan stage

1 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir
2 Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 0.07
4 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas 0.31
5 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - Fondital 0.37

....

27 David Arroyo Duran (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 4.26

Thanks Zen! Taking into consideration that he possibly was at the Giro for prep for supporting Valverde in the Tour while he is OPL's protected rider here at the Giro maybe his form is a bit above what it was in 2007. We'll see.

 

[tefloncat]

My money (literally)
Arroyo
Tondo
Sastre
Watch Pozzovivo for Mt.Jersey
Vino Pt.Jersey
GO Arroyo

 

[RedheadDane]

If the weather continues as is, anything could happen.

I thought that was basically the rule of this Giro... anything can happen! Or, alternatively, Expect the unexpected!

 

[Gregory]

When discussing the possibility of the likes of Evans taking time back, you have to realize, that to create big gaps on mountain stages, you need a strong team to set the tempo from some point and tire riders. That was always US Postal strategy, and that's why Armstrong always put big time gaps in the mountains. Even a mountain so steep as Zoncolan will not create significant gaps, if there won't be strong tempo setting from the start. The only possibility for the likes of Evans to take back time, is to have former favourites work together and not base on lesser team helpers.
Such things don't happen in the tour, but they have some tradition at the Giro.
In 1999, after Pantani's disqualification, Savoldelli became an accidental leader. But on the Mortirolo Gotti, Simoni and Heras attacked Savoldelli. It was a monumental escape: Gotti got the GC win, Heras grabbed the stage and Simoni jumped on his first Giro podium. Similar thing happened on Colle delle Finestre in 2005, but without luck for the escapees.
The same thing has to happen now. Evans may attack with the likes of Cunego, Nibali, Brillo, Vino, Garzelli.
There is one condition: Sastre must be dropped immediately

 

[Night Rider]

Evans will put at least five minutes on Tondo and Arroyo just in the two TT's left, wouldn't actually surprise me if it was more. That virtually rules both of them out, sure there is more work to do on Arroyo but that won't be too hard.

 

[saganftw]

Evans will put at least five minutes on Tondo and Arroyo just in the two TT's left, wouldn't actually surprise me if it was more. That virtually rules both of them out, sure there is more work to do on Arroyo but that won't be too hard.

no he wont,mountain TT and 15,3 km flat in verona,he can put maybe 2 minutes if hes in top form (which i doubt)

anyway looks to me arroyo has to be favourite to take it all,hes solid climber not attacking type,he wont loose too much time in mountain top finishes and if hes in pink or podium before final TT you know how those jerseys makes you 100% better in TT

tondo looks like in to form but hes never been consistent (coz he was never leader) and we dont know how it is now with him and sastre both having chance to win overall,whats the team plan

i think it will be spanish victory this year,vino,basso,evans,nibali lost too much time and none of them is really in top form to gain 7-10 minutes on arroyo or tondo (but i wouldnt be surprised if another crazy stage happen and shake overall placings)

 

[Epicycle]

The gaps should be bigger on the Zoncolan this year than in 2007 because this year the stage is a whopping 80km longer. Add that to the fact that it's been a tough Giro and we could see some major differences at the finish Sunday.

 

[Night Rider]

no he wont,mountain TT and 15,3 km flat in verona,he can put maybe 2 minutes if hes in top form (which i doubt)

I will get back to you next week

 

[saganftw]

I will get back to you next week

im sure you will...even if tondo and arroyo prove you wrong, am i right?