After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[auscyclefan94]

When discussing the possibility of the likes of Evans taking time back, you have to realize, that to create big gaps on mountain stages, you need a strong team to set the tempo from some point and tire riders. That was always US Postal strategy, and that's why Armstrong always put big time gaps in the mountains. Even a mountain so steep as Zoncolan will not create significant gaps, if there won't be strong tempo setting from the start. The only possibility for the likes of Evans to take back time, is to have former favourites work together and not base on lesser team helpers.
Such things don't happen in the tour, but they have some tradition at the Giro.
In 1999, after Pantani's disqualification, Savoldelli became an accidental leader. But on the Mortirolo Gotti, Simoni and Heras attacked Savoldelli. It was a monumental escape: Gotti got the GC win, Heras grabbed the stage and Simoni jumped on his first Giro podium. Similar thing happened on Colle delle Finestre in 2005, but without luck for the escapees.
The same thing has to happen now. Evans may attack with the likes of Cunego, Nibali, Brillo, Vino, Garzelli.
There is one condition: Sastre must be dropped immediately

Yes, but the teams know that evans' team won't be setting a hard tempo. Cervelo and liquigas can I think will set that hard tempo. The Zoncolan has been nullified a bit in the past as it is so hard and riders have saved themselves for later. It will be aggressive as teams are a fair bit behind.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I don't recall anyone really seriously talking Porte up. Primarily revelling in his envious position as a neo-pro in pink. Most are talking up Tondo, Arroyo and Sastre. I'm leaning towards Arroyo although I'd have to do some research to see how he does on climbs like the Zoncolan. He could lose it all there.

I agree with you. Though if sastre hits desired form in the 3rd week he will take it.

With such a weak team, it will be very tough for Evans or vino to win at this point.

 

[theyoungest]

no he wont,mountain TT and 15,3 km flat in verona,he can put maybe 2 minutes if hes in top form (which i doubt)

Evans could take 2 minutes in the mountain TT alone. The last time there was a TT on Plan de Corones, the difference between the winner (Pellizotti) and the nr. 10 (Menchov) was already 2 minutes.

 

[Zen Master]

Yes, but the teams know that evans' team won't be setting a hard tempo. Cervelo and liquigas can I think will set that hard tempo. The Zoncolan has been nullified a bit in the past as it is so hard and riders have saved themselves for later. It will be aggressive as teams are a fair bit behind.

Zoncolan ( Ovaro ) nullified ?!? Sorry, but when was that ?
Could you please enlighten me...

 

[Jan the Man]

Sastre is the best pure climber of any of the GC contenders and if he is recovered (a big if admittedly) from his crashes on stages 2 and 3 then he is going to be very difficult to stop. I mean if Sastre designed his ideal mountain stage, stages 15, 19 and 20 would come pretty close.

He performs best when there are several climbs before the finish and also when the climbs themselves are very hard. He also has a knack of riding his own tempo on these climbs. If someone is setting too fast a pace at the bottom he is more than happy to let them go and climb at his own rhythm.

That said Evans is also better in tough mountain stages than stages with one climb. I just think that Crevelo has a vastly superior team, in particular if Tondo works for Sastre or vice versa.

Vino, I think he is in a similar position to Evans but is a slightly weaker climber.

Basso is the dark horse for me. I just don't know what his form will be on the tougher stages. He wasn't great in Romandie but on paper I think he is the only one who can match Sastre in the climbing departement.

Nibali; excellent showing so far but I think he will probably struggle in the last two mountain stages on the basis he wasn't preparing for the Giro.

As for Arroyo, Porte, Agnoli etc I think it will be interesting to see if they Tondo or the Croat can hang tough. Some of these will end up in the top 10 and Arroyo and Tondo now have a shot at the podium, it just depends on the legs as they say.

 

[Pantani_lives]

This is a totally unpredictable Giro. There are at least 15 riders who can still win. I think Richie Porte has to be taken seriously, because he was very strong in all the stages thus far. He won't just lose ten minutes like that.

On the other hand the mountain stages are so tough that any strong climber in the top 20 can still win.

 

[M Sport]

no he wont,mountain TT and 15,3 km flat in verona,he can put maybe 2 minutes if hes in top form (which i doubt

Plan de Corones is tailor made for Evans, TT, uphill, and gravel, ticks 3 boxes. I think you will be shocked at how many minutes he puts in to the riders you're talking up.

 

[Shardi]

The Main GC Contenders will fight it out in the end. The guys in the lead now (porte, arroyo, gerdemann & co) won't be able to sustain the oncoming week of hell.

Cadel wins.

 

[R.0.t.O]

Arroyo is the best placed, I would have him marginal favourite ahead of Evans or Basso. If riders like Scarponi are prepared to keep attacking like yesterday then the gaps will quickly close down; it's very encouraging that the heads of state are prepared to work together like that to take time back.

Encouraging for an exciting race I mean, because at this stage it could go 2 ways, the pre-race favourites either go mental to take time back at every opportunity, or they close it down by being unwilling to expend any energy that will draw their rivals back into the GC race. There is always the risk that, say Basso, would rather sit back and let Arroyo win, rather than putting in some huge efforts that can be seized upon by Evans or Vino.

 

[Inner Peace]

Liquigas will set the tempo before the climbs (a la US Postal) and the time gaps are going to explode in the final week.

If it continues to rain like hell on the mountain stages, Evans wins the Giro.

If it stays dry, Sastre wins the Giro.

Darkhorse is now Porte because you never know about this guy. Cyclingnews wrote an article about this guy probably 6 months ago claiming he could pull 7 watts per kg or something like that and I considered posting on here a VERY early Giro prediction just to stir things up... boy am I regretting not getting on that early haha

The irony for Evans is, this was his best chance to win a GT (before stage 11), yet Porte, the 25 yr old untested australian finds himself the outright leader of the Giro - it reaks of 2002 Evans...

That said,

Predictions if it rains:
Evans
Sastre
Nibali

Predictions if it's dry:
Sastre
Evans
Porte

No disrespect to Arroyo, Gerdemann and Tondo - but winners win Grand Tours, top ten-ers do not (okay, yes Periero won a GT, that's an anomaly tho)...

The natural order of the GC will still sort itself out, I think, but the problem is Porte. He is untested, supremely talented (if you believe the 7w/kg), and by virtue of a poor poor strategy by Liquigas he finds himself in a winning position...

I don't think he'll win, but a podium is possible if the conditions suit. The harder the Giro, the more likely Evans and Sastre climb back into the lead.. The stages that suit Sastre, suit Evans too - many climbs back to back is their style... The more it rains, the better for Evans over Sastre

Evans and Vino did not lose the Giro on stage 11, Liquigas did. The best shot they have is a Nibali podium

 

[LukeSchmid]

The feature on Porte is here http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/opening-doors-comes-naturally-for-porte It says 7.6 watts per kilogram.
Also an interview with him from last year http://www.dailypeloton.com/displayarticle.asp?pk=15462

 

[Zen Master]

Plan de Corones is tailor made for Evans, TT, uphill, and gravel, ticks 3 boxes. I think you will be shocked at how many minutes he puts in to the riders you're talking up.

Hmmmm IMHO you obviously didn't watch Plan de Corones 2008 TT !?
For your information Plan de Corones TT is practically a contest for best individual climber and that's all, TT skills aren't important ( that much ) and you have gravel road only at the last part of climb ( 20+ % section )
When you ride 20+% climb only things that counts are physical and mental strength and nothing else

 

[auscyclefan94]

Zoncolan ( Ovaro ) nullified ?!? Sorry, but when was that ?
Could you please enlighten me...

Reffering to 2007
1 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir 3.51.52 (36.745 km/h)
2 Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 0.07
4 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) Liquigas 0.31
5 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - Fondital 0.37
6 Massimo Codol (Ita) Acqua & Sapone - Caffe Mokambo 0.58
7 Julio Alberto Perez Cuapio (Mex) Ceramica Panaria - Navigare 1.19
8 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas 1.40
9 Marzio Bruseghin (Ita) Lampre - Fondital 1.57
10 Ivan Ramiro Parra Pinto (Col) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 2.02
11 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 2.08
12 Riccardo Ricco (Ita) Saunier Duval - Prodir 2.11
13 Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) Astana 2.26
14 Mario Aerts (Bel) Predictor - Lotto 2.38
15 Fortunato Baliani (Ita) Ceramica Panaria - Navigare 2.41
16 Paolo Bettini (Ita) Quickstep - Innergetic 2.43
17 Dario David Cioni (Ita) Predictor - Lotto 2.55
18 Jussi Veikkanen (Fin) Française des Jeux 3.22
19 Evgeni Petrov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit System 3.27
20 Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone - Caffe Mokambo 3.35

Not big time gaps for a climb like that thorughout the top 20. Not overly attacking. But with attacking racing and a rest day afterwards we could see fireworks. Pinotti, thinks that it could be a bit nullified. (i think he said that)

 

[Zen Master]

Not big time gaps for a climb like that thorughout the top 20. Not overly attacking. But with attacking racing and a rest day afterwards we could see fireworks. Pinotti, thinks that it could be a bit nullified. (i think he said that)

I remember very well what's happened that day. Zoncolan was practically a last hard stage at Giro 2007 ( stage after was flat stage and then was not so hard climb stage, next day was a Verona TT and Milano finale at the end)
Zoncolan ( Ovaro ) is a pure killer and the fight to survive believe me and can't be nullified
My predictions for sunday: Exactly like at 2007 Zoncolan stage we will have a group of strongest in the front with Vino, Basso, Nibali, Evans, Scarponi and unfortunately Sastre
And IMHO the winner will be ... Cadel !
Vino is still a little too heavyweight and for Basso Zoncolan is too steep, but we shall see...

 

[saganftw]

Plan de Corones is tailor made for Evans, TT, uphill, and gravel, ticks 3 boxes. I think you will be shocked at how many minutes he puts in to the riders you're talking up.

you can untick 2 boxes, TT factor is really nonfactor (just look at 2008 plan de corones results top 10-8 pure climbers)...uphill well,i thought tondo looked in better shape or at least same shape as evans and others at terminillo...gravel yeah that could be his advantage...im not saying he wont get some time,in fact i would be surprised if he lose time to those guys but 5 minutes (together with last stage TT) as the other poster said its just too much

anyway,one bad day in the saddle and all our dispute can go down the ****house

 

[Eyeballs Out]

you can untick 2 boxes, TT factor is really nonfactor (just look at 2008 plan de corones results top 10-8 pure climbers)...uphill well,i thought tondo looked in better shape or at least same shape as evans and others at terminillo...gravel yeah that could be his advantage...im not saying he wont get some time,in fact i would be surprised if he lose time to those guys but 5 minutes (together with last stage TT) as the other poster said its just too much

anyway,one bad day in the saddle and all our dispute can go down the ****house

I remember big Jens doing very well in the Corones TT so it's not impossible for bigger riders to do a good race. One thing that was noticeable - I felt two teams (CSC & Liquigas) did a bit better than expected while LPR struggled - maybe choice of equipment or know-how ?

Another thing to consider - there was a recon session on Corones a few weeks back - the two current contenders who rode that day were Evans and Scarponi. That can't hurt their chances

 

[reyan12]

The 3 Spaniards (Arroyo,Tondo and Sastre) are the fovourite to win in this years Giro.The three are all good climbers.Barring any accidents and bad weather Arroyo and Tondo will never lose 10 mins to Evans and the other GC fovourites in the mountain stages this week.

 

[blaxland]

I remember big Jens doing very well in the Corones TT so it's not impossible for bigger riders to do a good race. One thing that was noticeable - I felt two teams (CSC & Liquigas) did a bit better than expected while LPR struggled - maybe choice of equipment or know-how ?

Another thing to consider - there was a recon session on Corones a few weeks back - the two current contenders who rode that day were Evans and Scarponi. That can't hurt their chances

+1 agree....and Evans will put some time into the main contenders.

 

[Sasquatch]

Great minds think alike haha

One thing though. Porte never won the baby giro. He won a time trial in the Baby Giro, but didn't win the overall.

 

[Sasquatch]

Evans will put at least five minutes on Tondo and Arroyo just in the two TT's left, wouldn't actually surprise me if it was more. That virtually rules both of them out, sure there is more work to do on Arroyo but that won't be too hard.

You're joking aren't you.

A 15km time trial and and uphill time trial?

He may put a minute into Tondo in the 15km time trial but Tondo will surprise everyone in the mountain time trial. I can't believe the love for Evans in the mountain time trial. Seriously, it's a different kettle of fish. Who cares if it's on dirt - that dirt won't be a problem. Evans will not win the uphill time trial and he won't put a massive amount of time into Sastre or Tondo.

 

[Sasquatch]

This is a totally unpredictable Giro. There are at least 15 riders who can still win. I think Richie Porte has to be taken seriously, because he was very strong in all the stages thus far. He won't just lose ten minutes like that.

On the other hand the mountain stages are so tough that any strong climber in the top 20 can still win.

Porte will lose 10+ minutes next week. He'll crumble. He may even crumble tonight.

 

[Sasquatch]

Hmmmm IMHO you obviously didn't watch Plan de Corones 2008 TT !?
For your information Plan de Corones TT is practically a contest for best individual climber and that's all, TT skills aren't important ( that much ) and you have gravel road only at the last part of climb ( 20+ % section )
When you ride 20+% climb only things that counts are physical and mental strength and nothing else

Precisely.

You don't need time trial ability in an uphill time trial. It's not a time trial!

 

[Connor Pass]

To me Arroyo looks the best bet. Caisse have a decent team for protecting him particularly Kiryienka and Uran. I can't see how Evans and Vino can get 10 minutes out of him.
Liquigas have a lot of cards to play with Kiserlovski, Agnoli, Nibali and Basso all in the top 20 and Cervelo obviously have Sastre and Tondo.
I'm very interested to see how Richie Porte goes over the next few days - if he's as good as has been talked up he could hang on!

My top 3

1) Arroyo
2) Sastre
3) Basso

 

[Cerberus]

Porte will lose 10+ minutes next week. He'll crumble. He may even crumble tonight.

Depending on who he looses 10+ minutes to that could still put him on the podium, or even in the lead.

 

[AtletiSK]

I think one of the Spaniards (Tondo, Arroyo, Sastre) will take it, but it is still very very unpredictable....