After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[BroDeal]

I don't think the Terminillo means much. It was right after the tiring stage 7. Arroyo went really well during stage 7. I think he has good form.

 

[sportzchick]

I think its out of Tondo, Sastre Arroyo

would love to see Cadel say ahh to hell with everything and give it a crack.......lets face it he's got nothing to lose

 

[Joey_J]

Tondo!!!!!!!!!!

It would be great to see a Catalan win a GT. We haven't had one since Mauri beat that Indurain guy in the Vuelta.

No question he's the best climber in the top 5.

 

[offbyone]

My first instinct was to say that Vino would win because he is the only rider with gc aspirations who is aggressive enough to go on wild throw it all in the fire attacks. But on further thought, the reality is that after this event you are going to have one nervous peloton. Race directors are going to be cussing tonight, and no team is going to allow something like this to happen again in this race, much less an unchecked attack by someone like vino.

Sastre could be it. That last week in the mountains will determine this race so it has to be a climber and he is a good bet.

 

[Angliru]

WTF Happened????!!!

I'm in complete shock. I'm toiling away on the job and decide to check in on the Giro and what do I find? Utter chaos! I know I'm a late arrival to this party (as usual) and I have yet to view the stage itself but how did this group of this size and including riders like Sastre, Arroyo and Tondo ever get away to build such an unsurmountable gap? Mass crash in the chase group disable Astana, BMC and Liquigas? Race radio's inoperative? DS's asleep at the wheels? Well I'll be eagerly and impatiently anticipating viewing it all on Universal Sports tonight!

 

[Roland Rat]

I still think it's between Evans and Sastre.

I tell you what today has done though - there'll be no more complaints that the GC is too open and the Giro had peaked too soon any more. We are pretty much guaranteed a good contest for the entire race.

 

[Moondance]

Of all the guys up front, Tondo was the best on the Terminillo. But then again, he doesn't have any experience in a three week race.

Arroyo has a nice bonus. But can he handle the pressure?

Sastre is easily the most experienced rider, but hasn't shown top shape so far. He was the best of the GC contenders today though. I would probably bet on him right now.

He rode the Vuelta last year as part of Andalucia-CajaSur... Although he didn't finish the race. He was standing around 20th overall and DNSed the stage to La Pandera... No idea why though.

 

[theyoungest]

He rode the Vuelta last year as part of Andalucia-CajaSur... Although he didn't finish the race. He was standing around 20th overall and DNSed the stage to La Pandera... No idea why though.

Probably one of the victims of the mass crash in Liege, like Mosquera (who didn't have it quite so bad, apparently).

 

[Moondance]

Probably one of the victims of the mass crash in Liege, like Mosquera (who didn't have it quite so bad, apparently).

Well since he made it all the way to stage 14 before DNSing I think a crash in Liege would be a partial explanation at best

 

[RedheadDane]

Looking at it now it is very hard to tell really,
Porte is in his first grand tour and is still young so the final week will surely be to much

I'm afraid you're right! Come one! He's a neo-pro! Also will the team be able to defend the jersey for 10 more stages?
In fact I was wondering if it hadn't been better if he had missed the jersey? (by as little time as possible of course) That way another team would have had to do the hard work...
Of course the danger with such a situation would be that then the other CGers would know he was a threat and watch his every move!

 

[Wallace]

I'd put my money on Sastre now (although betting on this Giro would be a good way to throw away money)--he was going backwards in the first half of the race, but a lot of that had to be the cumulative psychological damage of mishap after mishap. He's suddenly been given a totally unexpected break and must be elated now. There's a good chance we'll see a completely different Carlos Sastre in the last week.

 

[titan_90]

Arroyo, Tondo, Efimkin, and even Sastre if he can get some form and take time on Zoncolan and Plan de Corones.

 

[jaylew]

Another vote here for the three Spaniards: Arroyo, Tondo, and Sastre, but leaning towards Arroyo. Porte and Kiserlovski are unknown quantites and I don't see Vino and Evans making up over 10 minutes on Arroyo. For some reason Gerdemann reminds me of Tommy D, which is never a good thing.

 

[Barrus]

I hope Evans throws all caution to the wind and rides to make the race hard in the mountains. No one has yet been tested in the mountains. A lot will crack.

I think he and the other GC riders will need to attack in the mountains, or they want to depend on the Kronplatz to make up several minutes, which they probably won't make up compared to Sastre and Tondo. It hink this will ensure we'll see lively mountain stages, mainly because they'll need to do this, this all will ensure that this will be a fantastic last week of the Giro and will cement this years giro as one of the best ever

Anyway, I'll make a longshot on Kiserlovski, don't know too much about him, but at least on Terminillo he looked fantastic, if he didn't need to attack again and again only to get back in the group, he would probably have remained in the group with Vino and Evans, so that at least shows he isn't the worst of climbers and is in a great form

 

[benpounder]

Are you kidding me? The real question should be who should get fired for letting a 56 rider group get away?

Reminds me of a cold rainy day in the 2001 TdF (Stage 8 - July 15: Colmar - Pontarlier, 222.5 km) where a group of 12 got away for a 35 minute lead. (the following six stages in the Alps/Pyrnees were epic - LA at his best.)

Of course, in that edition all the realistic hopefuls were 29-36 minutes down. That year, USPostal tried to limit the Stage 8 losses, but no other team was willing to help. I'd guess today was along similar lines with everyone expecting (demanding???) that Astana do all the work (lord knows BMC cant).

 

[Dewulf]

I'm not that impressed by Porte, tbh. Don't think he'll be able to defend his lead. As it is now, Tondo is the main favourite, I think. But then again, we'll probably see some more insanity. The already hard mountain stages are going to be made extremely hard.

basically +1, I think he's doing a great job for his first grand tour, but people raving about him seem to be missing that he got ahead on time mostly by not getting caught in crashes etc., rather than better form than others. Still, wish him all the best for the white!

As for GC, my hunch says Tondo, Carlos is such a maybe due to his potentially-improving/potentially-not form.....but by God I hope Evans gets good rest somehow and just breaks them all in the mountains!

 

[Jamsque]

The only thing we can be certain of is uncertainty. What's to say there won't be another huge break that gains more than ten minutes and re-shuffles the GC all over again?

 

[theyoungest]

The only thing we can be certain of is uncertainty. What's to say there won't be another huge break that gains more than ten minutes and re-shuffles the GC all over again?

I think we can be pretty sure that's not going to happen. Or if it does, at least it'll be with the strongest riders who make a mountain stage hard from kilometre zero, not the complete randomness it was today.

 

[Vonn Brinkman]

What a bloody mess....
I'm happy for Porte though, this is definitely a dream come true for him! I mean who becomes a pro and in the first year gets a day in the maglia rosa??
Shame on Astana, that they let a break go, okay thats fine, but let Porte, Wiggans, Sastre, Arroyo, Gerdemann get away and then concede 10 min???
I'm going for either Arroyo or Sastre. Would be real fun if Arroyo ended up in Verona with the pink. That would quickly take care of a new sponsor for Caisse

 

[Mellow Velo]

Who knows?
I wouldn't be surprised to see the overall race won by seconds.
Some have forgotten already, that Sastre lost 2 minutes, with a puncture yesterday, on a pan flat stage.

Porte, I am certain, will crack. He wasn't too hot at today's finish.
Liquigas can work him over with their young guns.
Can the Italian teams form some sort of an alliance? I doubt it.

Cadel? He's got nothing, in terms of a team, that he can bring to the table.
He'll do what he does best, follow wheels and come up short.

Vino will probably attempt the impossible.

4 of the remaining stages, offer 10 minutes + or - any rider. That's even without the possiblity of intermediate stage shocks.

 

[Jamsque]

I think we can be pretty sure that's not going to happen. Or if it does, at least it'll be with the strongest riders who make a mountain stage hard from kilometre zero, not the complete randomness it was today.

Why can we be sure it won't happen again? If I had told you last night that today a fifty man break with two pre-race favourites in it would gain more than ten minutes and poach the leader's jersey you would have thought I was crazy.

 

[khardung la]

Tondo!!!!!!!!!!

It would be great to see a Catalan win a GT. We haven't had one since Mauri beat that Indurain guy in the Vuelta.

No question he's the best climber in the top 5.

I don't know why it would be so special, but aside from that for me it is very obvious that Arroyo is a better climber than tondo and has been there already, around top 10 and finishing big GTs. Tondo will probably loose shape while Sastre will feel better, so I would not bet for Tondo as the leader for the Cervelo team.

 

[Kazistuta]

Sastre himself claims that Tondo is improving (I took it as now, not just in general), so my bet is on him - AFTER Arroyo that is! Those two should be very much on par on the crucial stages to Zoncolan and on "Plan De Cohones".

Neither of the three youngsters (Porte, Kiserlovski and Agnoli) will be in top5 when the giro is over, but Evans and most likely Scarponi will claw their way back into top5.

My pick atm (Granted: anything can happen still, we're just around halfway):

1. Arroyo
2. Tondo + 2 min
3. Sastre + 3½ min
4. Evans + 4½ min
5. Scarponi + 6½ min (Scarponi will win PDC)

 

[LugHugger]

surely this has to be sastre's to lose now? with zoncolan, the mountain tt, the motirolo stage and more lumps and bumps than you can shake a stick at, of all the top 20 he has the toolbox to win?

 

[Jamsque]

It is going to be fun watching guys popping and plummeting out of the top ten on Zoncolan.