After L'Aquila stage: Who will win the giro?

[santacruz]

I want Richie Porte.. young whipper snapper has to GET ER DUN FER THE AUSSIES!! since Cadel epic failed on that one.

all you guys trying to butter Sastre's chamois, take a look at the facts, Porte has been consistent and climbing better than Sastre this entire time.. Porte will bring the fruggin hammer down so hard on Sastre's frail and whiny little spanish buttt. Also Porte has a bad mutha-lickin team (that's a good thing to have at the Giro Cadel/Sastre fyi).

 

[jaylew]

The odds of an Italian finishing on the final podium just got really slim.

 

[xmoonx]

Wow! What a shock.
Interesting that Will Fricshorn (who was helping w commentary) on the Terminillo climb mentioned that Vino was isolated and was musing on the teams strength. Is Giro Astana that weak? Still no excuse for Liquigas to let it go, or is Kiserlovski there excuse for sitting in?
Guess Sastre and Tondo are in a good place and Wiggins may surprise if he rides like the 2009 TDF...

 

[Jamsque]

If Giro Astana weren't weak before today they sure as heck are now.

 

[Claudiu]

I guess the former GC podium before this stage can't recover this huge time loss. Normally, i would say Carlos Sastre has a chance, it could be nice to fight to the end after the streak of bad lucks happened to him during the first week. Also i think that no italian will be close to the top 3 (so another Giro passing without a home rider wearing maglia rosa after 21 days). I really don't see Arroyo having the stamina to maintain his current position, and to finish my post in surprising way, my bet is the young croatian climber Robert Kiserlovski! I'm crazy, you will all say, probably, but if someone gives a chance to Richie Porte, i'll be the one who votes for the Liquigas promising talent, for the following reasons: i see him more fit and constant in the final days; he will be probably more motivated, and will have a better morale, support, good atmsophere, riding for an italian team, rather than Richie, who can be more affected by the pressure of maglia rosa wining perspective; and finally, the croatian is more used, trained and suited with the italian mountains than the australian.

 

[jaylew]

all you guys trying to butter Sastre's chamois, take a look at the facts, Porte has been consistent and climbing better than Sastre this entire time.. Porte will bring the fruggin hammer down so hard on Sastre's frail and whiny little spanish buttt.

It may seem like a small thing but I think it was rather telling the way Sastre finished the stage 1st from the group that was trying bring back the guys who attacked at the end (and put 16 secs into Porte). That original 50+ man group broke up a bunch along the way and resulted in a bunch of time gaps, but when it was all said and done Sastre finished 3rd.

You could certainly argue he was one of the guys with the most to gain, but he was also putting in some work in the closing ks. I think it may be a sign he is coming into form. Sastre almost always goes well in the 3rd week of a GT, so that wouldn't come as any surprise.

Otoh, you have no idea how Porte's body is going to respond to the third week of a GT, especially one that is as hard as this one is. You never know, though; he could be this year's Andy Schleck.

 

[Galic Ho]

I still think it's between Evans and Sastre.

I tell you what today has done though - there'll be no more complaints that the GC is too open and the Giro had peaked too soon any more. We are pretty much guaranteed a good contest for the entire race.

We have the winner from those two. I said a few days back, even after Sastre had dropped 5 minutes and then 2 minutes the next day, that he could still possibly come third. He could only win if a miracle occured. Enter said miracle. Come on people look at what has happened. Evans has been the strongest rider overall. So what Wiggins got some time. He cannot win when riding for training. His preparation is the Giro so he can aim for the Tour. Gerdemann and Sastre are the best bets, maybe Arroyo. But that is only for the podium. Sastre is the only guy who won time today who can win. Put it this way. The break rode harder. 95% of those who gained time today needed it because over 3 weeks once the last 7 days arrives, they will lose time. That was always a guarantee. History tells the same thing. It's kind of like when Voeckler gained time in the 2004 Tour and had yellow. He was always going to lose it in the last week. Porte and co, are no different. They will burn lots of time on the big mountains. Being stronger for one day over the GC guys means squat. What about all the days that are coming up when they aren't as strong? That's right...they will lose their advantage.

Evans, Basso, Nibali, Scaponi, Cunego and Vino will all take time out of those riders in the last week. Why? Because they always do. Most in the break will easily lose 5 minutes on the Zoncolan and another 2 on the ITT. Breakaway time made up there. Sastre is injured and the only real threat. Is he better? One day guys. I hope so but it isn't a guarantee. With his falls he needed time. I won't complain. My original finish list of Sastre, Evans and Vino is back in. This should be exciting.

 

[Galic Ho]

Why can we be sure it won't happen again? If I had told you last night that today a fifty man break with two pre-race favourites in it would gain more than ten minutes and poach the leader's jersey you would have thought I was crazy.

Actually I'd be asking you for lottery numbers if you had.

 

[Frosty]

Liquigas have done well so far, have a much stronger team than the others and have several cards to play. I've got a hunch we could yet see Basso come first or second. This partly depends on how strong the two guys in the break are - im guessing they would have got a free ride today as they wouldnt have done work when their leaders were back in the main group.

 

[Zen Master]

Sastre himself claims that Tondo is improving (I took it as now, not just in general), so my bet is on him - AFTER Arroyo that is! Those two should be very much on par on the crucial stages to Zoncolan and on "Plan De Cohones".

Neither of the three youngsters (Porte, Kiserlovski and Agnoli) will be in top5 when the giro is over, but Evans and most likely Scarponi will claw their way back into top5.

My pick atm (Granted: anything can happen still, we're just around halfway):

1. Arroyo
2. Tondo + 2 min
3. Sastre + 3½ min
4. Evans + 4½ min
5. Scarponi + 6½ min (Scarponi will win PDC)

I don't think so, that boy Kiserlovski is definitely top pick for me ( IF Liquigas stands behind him )
1. Arroyo or Kiserlovski
...
3. Tondo

 

[Walkman]

I think Evans will win!

Why?
Wiggins is just riding to prepare for le Tour, so he won't be in the mix.
Valerio Agnoli, Alexander Efimkin, Laurent Didier, Jan Bakelandts, Linus Gerdemann, Richie Porte and Robert Kiserlovski will all crack in the high mountains plus they can't TT like Evans.

That leaves Carlos Sastre, David Arroyo and Xavier Tondo. I think Tondo is too inexperienced, David Arroyo will struggle with all the press and Sastre, well he hasn't looked great and I think he will struggle when the going gets really tough!

You can say I am dreaming, but at least I have faith in my favorite rider!

 

[killswitch]

If Sastre has the pink jersey after Plan de Corones he will win it IMO.

 

[Magnus]

Riders in front of Vino in GC's placing on the the Terminillo stage relative to Vino:
Tondo - 20"
Kiserlovski + 20"
Porte and Wigans + 26"
Arroyo + 54"
Bakelandts + 1' 3"
Agnoli, Sastre and Efimkin + 1' 4"
Didier + 4'22"
Gerdeman + 6'20"

Clearly Gerdeman, Didier and Bakelandts (Bakelandts is at 8'35") isn't contenders.

Porte and Kiserlovski are young and are likely to crack in third week.

Agnoli and Efimkin would have to gain on Tondo, Kiserlovski, Porte and Arroyo. It's unlikely either will pass all four of them.

Assuming Wigans wasn't going 100% at Terminillo because he's already behind in GC he could be a contender.

Tondo's been looking good and Sastres consistency in week 3 give him a big advantage. If they can work out the tactics the GC could very well be CTT's.

Liquigas seems to be in a strong position but I doubt they'll be able to use it.


I call Sastre ftw (unless the maglia rosa gives Porte superpowers)

 

[Barrus]

Riders in front of Vino in GC's placing on the the Terminillo stage relative to Vino:
Tondo - 20"
Kiserlovski + 20"
Porte and Wigans + 26"
Arroyo + 54"
Bakelandts + 1' 3"
Agnoli, Sastre and Efimkin + 1' 4"
Didier + 4'22"
Gerdeman + 6'20"

Clearly Gerdeman, Didier and Bakelandts (Bakelandts is at 8'35") isn't contenders.

Porte and Kiserlovski are young and are likely to crack in third week.

Agnoli and Efimkin would have to gain on Tondo, Kiserlovski, Porte and Arroyo. It's unlikely either will pass all four of them.

Assuming Wigans wasn't going 100% at Terminillo because he's already behind in GC he could be a contender.

Tondo's been looking good and Sastres consistency in week 3 give him a big advantage. If they can work out the tactics the GC could very well be CTT's.

Liquigas seems to be in a strong position but I doubt they'll be able to use it.


I call Sastre ftw (unless the maglia rosa gives Porte superpowers)

Please do keep into account that Kiserlovski also needed to attack and fall back several times due to team tactics, he could've placed with Vino at the same time. Still these two young riders can crack and probably will, but still it would be nice to see such a young guy win such a big race

 

[nvpacchi]

Please do keep into account that Kiserlovski also needed to attack and fall back several times due to team tactics, he could've placed with Vino at the same time. Still these two young riders can crack and probably will, but still it would be nice to see such a young guy win such a big race

For the next 10 days all Arroyo, Tondo, and Sastre have to do is suck wheels. And as all Spainards love collaborating with their countrymen, they will work together to squelch any attacks that might occur. Unless one absolutely bonks the podium should be 1) Arroyo 2) Tondo 3) Sastre (Sastre and Tondo could potentially flip flop).

 

[issoisso]

And as all Spainards love collaborating with their countrymen

Based on what? BFFs Contador and Valverde?

Tondo and Sastre will collaborate.....because they're teammates. Arroyo will collaborate with them or not depending on the race situation, just as any other person in the race.

 

[nvpacchi]

Based on what? BFFs Contador and Valverde?

Tondo and Sastre will collaborate.....because they're teammates. Arroyo will collaborate with them or not depending on the race situation, just as any other person in the race.

There is already bad blood between Spain and Italy (Italy banning Valverde, then Spain banning all Italian teams from Asturias?[I think it was]).

At this point it has become a race between the guys who lost big time (Vino, Evans, Basso, Nibali, Scarponi, and Garzelli) vs. todays three benefactors with the best chance of winning, who all just happen to be Spanish.

Maybe, just maybe, country pride will come to the forefront at the end of this Giro as Arroyo, Tondo, and Sastre unite a Spanish front delivering a big f*** you to the Italians.

Also Arroyo and Sastre grew up 100kms away from each other, and Spainards seem to have a lot of territorial pride in their specific birthplace region.

 

[Galic Ho]

Based on what? BFFs Contador and Valverde?

Tondo and Sastre will collaborate.....because they're teammates. Arroyo will collaborate with them or not depending on the race situation, just as any other person in the race.

It's funny because the Italians have more of an incentive to work together than the Spaniards. Plus the Italians left are overwhelmingly stronger riders than the Spaniards as a collective group.

It makes me wonder. Did people forget how pathetic Caisse were in the first 3 days. They were worse than Sky, but Sky got all the focus because the cool thing to do is slag off the Brits. Caisse, it is your turn now.

 

[issoisso]

There is already bad blood between Spain and Italy (Italy banning Valverde, then Spain banning all Italian teams from Asturias?[I think it was]).

At this point it has become a race between the guys who lost big time (Vino, Evans, Basso, Nibali, Scarponi, and Garzelli) vs. todays three benefactors with the best chance of winning, who all just happen to be Spanish.

Maybe, just maybe, country pride will come to the forefront at the end of this Giro as Arroyo, Tondo, and Sastre unite a Spanish front delivering a big f*** you to the Italians.

Does not come into it. There is no bad blood between them, unless Valverde is involved. Which is he isn't. And even if he were, the biggest favourites are a Kazakhstani and an Australian, so it still wouldn't matter.

Also Arroyo and Sastre grew up 100kms away from each other, and Spainards seem to have a lot of territorial pride in their specific birthplace region.

They're from different regions, and neither is the type of person to look up or down at someone based on birthplace.

 

[khardung la]

There is already bad blood between Spain and Italy (Italy banning Valverde, then Spain banning all Italian teams from Asturias?[I think it was]).

It was Murcia, not Asturias (the organizer of the race is a foolish guy, that was all). But I think we have no bad blood with the Italians at all. These kind of things don't play a role IMHO.

 

[theswordsman]

According to Velonews:
Attacks came right from the gun, with groups forming, being chased, followed by more counter-attacks.

Sastre said it was difficult to follow the action and said he was lucky to make the breakaway.

“There was one group of 20 that was getting away, then a second group formed. Tondo was out there and I was the last one to get across,” Sastre said. “The gaps opened up very fast. We had five, eight, then 10 minutes within 20km.”

There was confusion right from the gun. When the attacks came, no one really knew what was going on until it was too late.

“We heard over the radio, there were 20 riders gone. We were waiting for the numbers, then we didn’t get the numbers. Then we heard there was another big group of 40 going,” said Astana sport director Lorenzo Lapage. “We didn’t get the numbers of the big group until they had eight minutes, so that was part of the problem.

Read more: http://velonews.competitor.com/2010...erturns-the-gc-standings_114802#ixzz0oPVF5uI1

Astana had lost Tiralongo the other day, and today Valentin Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto abandoned with a stomach bug, so Astana didn't have the manpower to chase. BMC didn't either, and Liquigas didn't because they had guys in the break. It sounds like the front group was way more motivated than the former top GC guys, and they started with more domestiques to boot.

As for the rest of the race, I'm just going to live in the moment. Today it was 150 hilly miles in the rain, and those were some miserable hours emotionally for guys in the back. They've got two regular stages and two mountain stages before the rest day, and then the real race begins

Mad respect for everyone who finishes this one.

 

[khardung la]

Also Arroyo and Sastre grew up 100kms away from each other, and Spainards seem to have a lot of territorial pride in their specific birthplace region.

They are basically from the same region, although they are named differently. That is just a territorial/political minor issue. We Spaniards in general do not have a lot of territorial pride, although many citizens of some few particular territories do really show lots of pride, and birthplace is an issue there. That does not apply at all for the places of origin of these 2 cyclists (Madrid or Castilla y Leon for Sastre, Castilla La Mancha for Arroyo)

 

[icefire]

Spaniards will collaborate exactly as they did in stage 17 of TdF 2006 to help Pereiro chasing FLandys.

 

[nvpacchi]

They're from different regions, and neither is the type of person to look up or down at someone based on birthplace.

Just noticed that they are from different regions even though Madrid and Toledo are so close thanks for clarifying that.

Its not that Sastre and Arroyo would view someone differently based on their birthplace. However, now that everyone is targeting them (and Tondo) they might find it a little easier to collaborate with another Spainard, even if they are on different teams... Disagree if you like, thats just the way I see it.

 

[Galic Ho]

Spaniards will collaborate exactly as they did in stage 17 of TdF 2006 to help Pereiro chasing FLandys.

Exactly. They won't collaborate at all. Nobody did that day. At least not effectively. Can't wait for that type of stage in the Giro. The Clinic will go into meltdown!