After one week of racing, who will win the Giro 100?

[Red Rick]

Lo Squalo dello Stretto.

 

[huangho]

I can't see anybody but Quintana wearing pink by the end of Giro, the only real contender for pink is Vincenzo Nibali, because:

1. Major Tom will hang in there until last week, then we will see him out of top 5, he can't sustain than pace in the mountains from one year to another, also I can't see his team pressuring NQ, that's not gonna happen.

2. Tibopino is the other real contender for podium, but not for Quintana, he is not a trully menace for him on when facing Alps, he can do some damage on ITT, but that will be his peak, he should get 2nd place tomorrow, but I can't see him pairing Q's performance on multimountain stages.

3. Nibbs on the other hand, will recover quite good on 3rd week, but his team won't help him to attack NQ, but to deffend as long as they can. He can outmatch Tibopino by himself on 3rd week, but that depends on his performance tomorrow, then we'll see how it unfolds.

Based on what I said, I belive it is like:

1. Quintana: 70% pink
2. Nibbs: 20%
3. Tibopino: 10%

 

[killswitch]

Quintana is the favourite - best climber and has the best team. If he doesn't get sick or injured and weather permitting, gonna win his second Giro.

Also, why no Vino option?

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Quintana is the favourite - best climber and has the best team. If he doesn't get sick or injured and weather permitting, gonna win his second Giro.

Also, why no Vino option?

He's been replaced by the maestro Pippo Pozzato

 

[Sandisfan]

Voted Tom but it will still probably Niro.

 

[jaylew]

Barring something crazy happening, like the moto incident, I'd put chances of winning at:

Nairo - 75%
Nibali - 10%
Dumoulin - 7%
Pinot - 4%
Mollema - 3%
Vino - 1%

 

[Sciocco]

I believe in Major Tom.

 

[Nirvana]

I can't see past Nibali, as showed in Croatia his curse is stronger than ever.
And after one week three of the riders stronger than him are already out with another two looking very below their best shape.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't know where the doubts about Nibali's TTing are coming from. He's literally always solid in a GT TT

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

I don't know where the doubts about Nibali's TTing are coming from. He's literally always solid in a GT TT

Last year in the Giro he wasn't particularly impressive.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I don't know where the doubts about Nibali's TTing are coming from. He's literally always solid in a GT TT

Last year in the Giro he wasn't particularly impressive.

That was just a very strange TT due to the rain. Nibali was maybe only 7 seconds faster than Landa, but he also only lost 13 seconds to Dumoulin.

 

[RedheadDane]

Silly. Nobody is gonna win the Giro after a week of racing. It requires three weeks to win.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

As great as Dumoulin's ride was the other day, I still feel like he's not gonna challenge Quintana, come the third week.Last year he was also very good on the first MTF, but faded on the gravel stage and the next mountain stage, while underperforming in the ITT. I hope I'm wrong. Nibali is still my main hope to challenge Quintana.

 

[Arked]

Mind says Quintana or Dumoulin. But... my vote goes for Pinot who's great climber but also pretty good time trialist. If he won't blow up this time he might have the edge over both Quintana and Dumoulin.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

As great as Dumoulin's ride was the other day, I still feel like he's not gonna challenge Quintana, come the third week.Last year he was also very good on the first MTF, but faded on the gravel stage and the next mountain stage, while underperforming in the ITT. I hope I'm wrong. Nibali is still my main hope to challenge Quintana.

Please do not compare with last year. Last year he had to abandon with an injury (think it was saddle sore?) and was already suffering from it for days.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Re:

Silly. Nobody is gonna win the Giro after a week of racing. It requires three weeks to win.

 

[bambino]

Re:

I can't see past Nibali, as showed in Croatia his curse is stronger than ever.
And after one week three of the riders stronger than him are already out with another two looking very below their best shape.

I find it pretty odd to declare the 3 riders (Landa, Thomas, Yates) with total of massive 1 career GC podium by default stronger than a guy with 4 wins+4 podiums. Guess it is just the syptom of underrating Nibali big time in this forum.

For voodoo being on I agree

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Silly. Nobody is gonna win the Giro after a week of racing. It requires three weeks to win.

He might have taken the lead after one week, and then kept it for the last two, but it still took three weeks to win.
Lot's of things can happen in two weeks. One week into the race last year, was anyone expecting Nibali to win?

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Re: Re:

Silly. Nobody is gonna win the Giro after a week of racing. It requires three weeks to win.

He might have taken the lead after one week, and then kept it for the last two, but it still took three weeks to win.
Lot's of things can happen in two weeks. One week into the race last year, was anyone expecting Nibali to win?

Yeah me, anyway I was just joking.

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

Silly. Nobody is gonna win the Giro after a week of racing. It requires three weeks to win.

I remember people saying that everytime after the first MTF during the Armstrong years.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

I can't see past Nibali, as showed in Croatia his curse is stronger than ever.
And after one week three of the riders stronger than him are already out with another two looking very below their best shape.

I find it pretty odd to declare the 3 riders (Landa, Thomas, Yates) with total of massive 1 career GC podium by default stronger than a guy with 4 wins+4 podiums. Guess it is just the syptom of underrating Nibali big time in this forum.

For voodoo being on I agree

Now they are stronger than him, the past doesn't count in evaluating what could be their top shape in 2017.
And i don't think that Nibali now could even reach level a near to his best because is fading, furthermore his best is probably overrated due to his luck. The top shape Nibali is widely considered the one of 2013-2014, he dominated the 2014 Tour but the second was Peraud, he easily won at the Giro the year before and the second was Uran then he lost the Vuelta against Horner.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

I can't see past Nibali, as showed in Croatia his curse is stronger than ever.
And after one week three of the riders stronger than him are already out with another two looking very below their best shape.

I find it pretty odd to declare the 3 riders (Landa, Thomas, Yates) with total of massive 1 career GC podium by default stronger than a guy with 4 wins+4 podiums. Guess it is just the syptom of underrating Nibali big time in this forum.

For voodoo being on I agree

Now they are stronger than him, the past doesn't count in evaluating what could be their top shape in 2017.
And i don't think that Nibali now could even reach level a near to his best because is fading, furthermore his best is probably overrated due to his luck. The top shape Nibali is widely considered the one of 2013-2014, he dominated the 2014 Tour but the second was Peraud, he easily won at the Giro the year before and the second was Uran then he lost the Vuelta against Horner.

If you didn't notice, he only lost to Thomas on those trio today which is normal as Thomas is ITT specialist. It is very brave of you to suggest that Yates, Landa and even Thomas are currently stronger tham Nibs. I could even make a virtual bet that he is going to beat all of them (save unchased attacks that Landa will be allowed) from this point to the rest of Giro.

There is absolutely zero evidence they are stronger. And I'm not sure why 2017 Nibs would be so much faded from 2016 when he won Giro? Yes Kruijswijk did fell, but there were other rides he crushed (i.e. Chaves, Vuelta #3) big time when he reached the peak.

And he hasn't reached his peak this Giro yet...

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

There is absolutely zero evidence they are stronger. And I'm not sure why 2017 Nibs would be so much faded from 2016 when he won Giro? Yes Kruijswijk did fell, but there were other rides he crushed (i.e. Chaves, Vuelta #3) big time when he reached the peak.

And he hasn't reached his peak this Giro yet...

yep, but the problem is all grand tours are different, and the giro 2017 almost certaintly won't go the giro 2016 path for nibs. with that, i'm not suggesting he won't win.

i'm still going with nairo. yes, dimoulin smoked him today and losing 1'10''-1'30'' in the next tt seems almost inevitable (providing tom is still in the game after the dolomites stages). nonetheless somehow i don't believe in dimoulin being able to get over multimountain stages, not cracking big time,

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

There is absolutely zero evidence they are stronger. And I'm not sure why 2017 Nibs would be so much faded from 2016 when he won Giro? Yes Kruijswijk did fell, but there were other rides he crushed (i.e. Chaves, Vuelta #3) big time when he reached the peak.

And he hasn't reached his peak this Giro yet...

yep, but the problem is all grand tours are different, and the giro 2017 almost certaintly won't go the giro 2016 path for nibs. with that, i'm not suggesting he won't win.

i'm still going with nairo. yes, dimoulin smoked him today and losing 1'10''-1'30'' in the next tt seems almost inevitable (providing tom is still in the game after the dolomites stages). nonetheless somehow i don't believe in dimoulin being able to get over multimountain stages, not cracking big time,

I didn't say he will win either - just said he hasn't peaked yet.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

I can't see past Nibali, as showed in Croatia his curse is stronger than ever.
And after one week three of the riders stronger than him are already out with another two looking very below their best shape.

I find it pretty odd to declare the 3 riders (Landa, Thomas, Yates) with total of massive 1 career GC podium by default stronger than a guy with 4 wins+4 podiums. Guess it is just the syptom of underrating Nibali big time in this forum.

For voodoo being on I agree

Now they are stronger than him, the past doesn't count in evaluating what could be their top shape in 2017.
And i don't think that Nibali now could even reach level a near to his best because is fading, furthermore his best is probably overrated due to his luck. The top shape Nibali is widely considered the one of 2013-2014, he dominated the 2014 Tour but the second was Peraud, he easily won at the Giro the year before and the second was Uran then he lost the Vuelta against Horner.

If you didn't notice, he only lost to Thomas on those trio today which is normal as Thomas is ITT specialist. It is very brave of you to suggest that Yates, Landa and even Thomas are currently stronger tham Nibs. I could even make a virtual bet that he is going to beat all of them (save unchased attacks that Landa will be allowed) from this point to the rest of Giro.

There is absolutely zero evidence they are stronger. And I'm not sure why 2017 Nibs would be so much faded from 2016 when he won Giro? Yes Kruijswijk did fell, but there were other rides he crushed (i.e. Chaves, Vuelta #3) big time when he reached the peak.

And he hasn't reached his peak this Giro yet...

Thomas was impressive also on sunday despite the crash, he cracked in the last kilometres but between the foot of the climb and circa 4 kms to go he steadly gained time to the GC group and than the leading trio.
And don't forget that a couple of week ago in Tyrol was at the level of Pinot, i think that without the crash he would have dropped Nibali.
The problem of Thomas i think is the Stelvio stage, probably too much for him.