After the Culling in Holland....

[Galic Ho]

I do wonder how long Vino will last, whether Sastre is as strong as last year, how diesel Basso will digest the mountains.

Vino will last, but lose some time in the mountains.His form suggests he has a chance to podium. Sastre is probably stronger this year because his squad looks stronger. They have the first year experimentation over with. They came to the Giro to win. He's strong enough. I think Nibali will be required to drag Basso up to Vino. I don't think he will come close to Evans or Sastre. All things equal, I don't know if Basso can match Vino all round. Vino can still climb, maybe not like Evans or Sastre but still well and he has a very strong chrono. All his wins before Liege were in the ITT. Third week should be good. Action packed. Evans and Sastre have time to make up, but to be fair, the others needed that handicap because Evans and Sastre are so strong. Means more racing and strategy which makes better viewing.

 

[rick bensco]

Poor Evans! Who is going to motivate his cobbled together team? BMC seemed content to let all their guys DNF in the classics to me that breeds mediocrity and accepts half *** work. Can they pull it together for a ttt? They look like a bunch of quitters to me.

 

[Oldman]

Vino will last, but lose some time in the mountains.His form suggests he has a chance to podium. Sastre is probably stronger this year because his squad looks stronger. They have the first year experimentation over with. They came to the Giro to win. He's strong enough. I think Nibali will be required to drag Basso up to Vino. I don't think he will come close to Evans or Sastre. All things equal, I don't know if Basso can match Vino all round. Vino can still climb, maybe not like Evans or Sastre but still well and he has a very strong chrono. All his wins before Liege were in the ITT. Third week should be good. Action packed. Evans and Sastre have time to make up, but to be fair, the others needed that handicap because Evans and Sastre are so strong. Means more racing and strategy which makes better viewing.

Sastre's team may be the edge needed over Evans, particularly if BMC is as absent as the TV coverage has made them look this week. They need to get their sh*t together quick or Evans will be exhausted before week 3. If it gets to that Vino's aggression will probably hurt Basson & Vino; making life even easier for Sastre.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I like it that Evans and Sastre lost time already.
Makes for a more exciting Giro.

 

[Ad Rock]

I feel the same way. But I also am thinking that Cadel will take carlos to the slaughter house and cut him up like a piece of meat on the climbs!

Good luck!.... has evans ever outclimbed Sastre on anything where Carlos was trying? (Ie: Exclude last year's TdF)

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Evans never outclimbes entire fields, there are always a few better. In the Vuelta last year same story, Evans is very consistent, but never the best climber.

 

[ttrider]

the thing is im convinced vino will have at least 1 disaster and i think due to his team evans will on either gavia or mortirolo later on

im also fairly sure basso will not have a bad day and i think that with the ttt to come he may hav enough to hold the others off

Sastre is just such an awesome climber and with people like tondo and cuesta i can certainly see basso being dropped by him at least once but sastre is simply an improved basso these days

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Good luck!.... has evans ever outclimbed Sastre on anything where Carlos was trying? (Ie: Exclude last year's TdF)

Did he even outclimb Carlos at last year's Tour?

Stage 7, Arcalis:

10 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +3'47"
18 SASTRE Carlos (CTT) +3'47"
- same group

both were in the group in the stages over the mountains in the Pyrenées ending in breakaway victories or sprints.

Stage 15, Verbier:

6 SASTRE Carlos (CTT) +1'06"
7 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +1'26"
- Sastre outclimbed Evans

Stage 16, over the mountains to Bourg Saint-Maurice:

24 SASTRE Carlos (CTT) +59"
46 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +3'55"
- Sastre was dropped by the heads of state group but caught up to it when the impetus went out of it near the peak and other climbing gods like Dave Zabriskie and Yuri Trofimov could make it over with them. Evans was dropped on this climb but unable to bridge.

Stage 17, queen stage to Le Grand-Bornand:

25 SASTRE Carlos (CTT) +7'47"
81 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +29'43"
- Evans came in with the autobus. Sastre attempted an attack at the base of the Romme but never had the legs nor looked like having them. He had only been four minutes down at this point, so this was the end of him being even a dark horse for the win, though anybody who had paid attention would have seen he was out of form long before this.

Stage 20, to Mont Ventoux:

32 EVANS Cadel (SIL) +5'45"
71 SASTRE Carlos (CTT) +9'36"
- here Evans did outclimb Sastre; Sastre was caught in the split in the péloton about 10-15km before the climb started, and never really came into it.

Of those, Sastre finished before Evans in 3 of the 5, and in one of the 2 in which Evans beat the Spaniard home they finished on the same time. However, he did beat Sastre on Ventoux.

 

[Winterfold]

A good performance by Cervelo in the TTT will bring Sastre back into contention. If he rides the big mountain stages like he did last year then I still think he will win, but on the other hand, Evans will not watch the Schlecks like he did while Carlos styled away on the Alpe d'Huez...

When it gets tough Evans is on his own, we can see that already, and this is going to be a tough race. How tired will he be by the third week?

Will Vino be strong in the 3rd week? We just don't know.

I think Basso and Nibali just need to bide their time and the course they should take will become clear. Liquigas have looked very strong as a team and I think will be more long-lasting than Astana.

I can see both Basso and Nibali on podium if they continue to race low-key and smart (and with many green shirts with them) as they are.

 

[Cervelo77]

Liquigas look very strong, but I have doubts about Basso on the toughest climbs.

Evans will (as usual) have to do this all on his own. If he doesn't lose too much time on the TTT he'll still be in play in week 3.

Sastre is still my favourite to win. He'll likely do okay in the TTT, and as he rides into peak form for week 3 he'll be ideally positioned to take back time on the climbs. BTW, who are the climbing lieutenants for Cervelo at this race?

The Vino will be in the mix, but I'm willing to bank on one bad mountain day that puts the win out of his reach. Podium possible though. He definitely benefits from minimal carnage during the Dutch days.

Is this Richie Porte kid for real?

What's Garmin's game plan now that they're VDVless? Do they just ride for stage wins?

And Sky, well, Wiggins was here for training. He can practice trying to recovery minutes in the mountains.

 

[Ferminal]

Good luck!.... has evans ever outclimbed Sastre on anything where Carlos was trying? (Ie: Exclude last year's TdF)

2007 Tour

Up to Tignes on the Moreau Train

6. AUS EVANS Cadel PRL 03'13"
10. ESP SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 03'35"

Briancon - Doesn't really count though, Evans will always beat Sastre on an uphill kick a la Super Besse. They came over the last climb more or less together.

3. AUS EVANS Cadel PRL 38"
10. ESP SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 46"

Aubisque - Evans getting bashed by Chicken/Levi/Contador/Soler

4. AUS EVANS Cadel PRL 43"
8. ESP SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 02'12"

Did he even outclimb Carlos at last year's Tour?

-

I don't think last year's Tour is a good reference point, we can safely say that neither of them were *cough* "at their best". They haven't really gone H2H since the 2008 Tour and we all know who won there.

 

[M Sport]

Vino, Basso, Evans, Sastre are contenders.

Nibali = dark horse.

Everyone else = pretenders.

Sums it up well, the winner will certainly come from those five riders.

 

[jaylew]

BTW, who are the climbing lieutenants for Cervelo at this race?

Is this Richie Porte kid for real?

What's Garmin's game plan now that they're VDVless? Do they just ride for stage wins?

Tondo and Cuesta will likely be the guys in the mountains for Sastre.

Pretty sure stage wins was always the plan for Garmin. I think they'd also like to see how Martin does in the high mountains.

Porte? It's his 1st GT and the peloton hasn't been up so much as a driveway yet. For all we know he could lose an hour in the 3rd week. I highly doubt he'll be a factor but he looks like someone to at least keep an eye on in the coming years.

 

[Cerberus]

Tondo and Cuesta will likely be the guys in the mountains for Sastre.

Pretty sure stage wins was always the plan for Garmin. I think they'd also like to see how Martin does in the high mountains.

Porte? It's his 1st GT and the peloton hasn't been up so much as a driveway yet. For all we know he could lose an hour in the 3rd week. I highly doubt he'll be a factor but he looks like someone to at least keep an eye on in the coming years.

Honestly I think that in relation to GTs even considering him a hope for the future is premature, because as you say we haven't seen him climb yet. I think considering him anything more than a promising TTalist is getting your hopes to high. Not sure if that was what you meant though.

 

[Runitout]

Honestly I think that in relation to GTs even considering him a hope for the future is premature, because as you say we haven't seen him climb yet. I think considering him anything more than a promising TTalist is getting your hopes to high. Not sure if that was what you meant though.

If Porte finishes in the top 30 he should be delighted.

The parcours is very hard this year. I can't see him climbing with the best up the Zoncolan or Kronplatz. Nice to see him shine in his first GT and first season, though.

 

[Franklin]

Evans will (as usual) have to do this all on his own. If he doesn't lose too much time on the TTT he'll still be in play in week 3.

Considering that BMC finished just behind Sky on the prologue I wouldn't call BMC completely terrible for the TTT up front.

BMC might surprise us there. Or not

 

[auscyclefan94]

When it gets tough Evans is on his own, we can see that already, and this is going to be a tough race. How tired will he be by the third week?

Will Vino be strong in the 3rd week? We just don't know.
.

I think evans will be use to that. Don't think Vino will have it in 3rd week.