Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Red Rick]

So, one of the big 4 beating 1 barely whilst the other 2 are in crap shape is an indicator he's heads and shoulders above the rest? Getting roasted in the last 2 mountain stages and winning thanks to your team is being heads and shoulders above the rest?

You can't judge Nibali, who clearly wasn't as good as he could be
You can't judge Contador, who came into the Tour with the worst preperation of all time
I don't event think you can draw too much conclusions from Contador's Giro, he was never meant to start great there.

For someone who's always rambling about sample sizes, taking so many conclusions from a sample of n=1 seems a bit odd. Or is it just because it fits the argument?

Fact is the 'Big four' came 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th, whilst the latter two were in really bad shape.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If you look past the hype, the Big 4 story failed to materialise. For one reason or another, tho they are all good GT riders, they aren't riding away from the field together giving each other close duels. Instead, things look like they always have, sadly, if one or two riders crushing the rest. Are Quintana and Nibali any better than Menchov, Evans and Sastre? Nibali isn't, just luckier, and Quintana might go on to be but still isn't.

That said, Lance thought that the period after his retirement till his comeback was a weak era so perhaps there is something to it!

I pretty much agree. I like your posts BTW. I think you know it by now. Only difference (maybe). Bad luck put aside, Froome is above the rest, so there's no Big 4. It's Froome and a second tier with three riders, another tier with 5-6-7 riders. Contador is one of the three: I like your point about Lance thoughts. Contador should do Giro-Vuelta next year and say goodbye. Baring something unpredictable, he'll never beat Dawg in the TdF. No way. Contador should focus on winning the Vuelta and retire.

What's your opinion about 2014 AC in relation to Froome?

At their absoulte peak Froome was stronger in 2014. It was celebrated as a very significant result when Contador was able to just about hold Froome's wheel in the big head to head at the Dauphine. I think that shows where the balance of power lies.

That's not to say that Contador couldn't beat Froome in the TdF - I think he could. When on top form he seems to be able to hold his peak for longer than Froome in Grand Tours. Froome has only seemed to be able to maintain top form for two weeks - either starting slowly (Vuelta) or finishing slightly weaker (Tour).

 

[nobilis]

GT racing is now the strongest it has been since 2005 with 3 and a half super-GT-riders in prime condition.

Contador benefited from a weak GT-riding era...in the years 2007-2011. Only him and Andy Schleck.
Menchov, Evans and Sastre etc were never true 5 stars GT riders.

You must be one of those people who firmly believe Nadal is a greater player than Federer

On a head to head basis, Nadal is by far a better player than Federer. Nadal's problem was that he approach his career in a smart way like Federer did. Nadal used to go all-in in every match and trying not to lose sets, which obviously affected physically on the longer term.

 

[Red Rick]

GT racing is now the strongest it has been since 2005 with 3 and a half super-GT-riders in prime condition.

Contador benefited from a weak GT-riding era...in the years 2007-2011. Only him and Andy Schleck.
Menchov, Evans and Sastre etc were never true 5 stars GT riders.

You must be one of those people who firmly believe Nadal is a greater player than Federer

On a head to head basis, Nadal is by far a better player than Federer. Nadal's problem was that he approach his career in a smart way like Federer did. Nadal used to go all-in in every match and trying not to lose sets, which obviously affected physically on the longer term.

I was reffering to the weak era argument obviously, but tennis has matchups where different playing styles can have advantages similar to rock paper scissors sometimes, but let's not get carried away with tennis

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

If you look past the hype, the Big 4 story failed to materialise. For one reason or another, tho they are all good GT riders, they aren't riding away from the field together giving each other close duels. Instead, things look like they always have, sadly, if one or two riders crushing the rest. Are Quintana and Nibali any better than Menchov, Evans and Sastre? Nibali isn't, just luckier, and Quintana might go on to be but still isn't.

That said, Lance thought that the period after his retirement till his comeback was a weak era so perhaps there is something to it!

I pretty much agree. I like your posts BTW. I think you know it by now. Only difference (maybe). Bad luck put aside, Froome is above the rest, so there's no Big 4. It's Froome and a second tier with three riders, another tier with 5-6-7 riders. Contador is one of the three: I like your point about Lance thoughts. Contador should do Giro-Vuelta next year and say goodbye. Baring something unpredictable, he'll never beat Dawg in the TdF. No way. Contador should focus on winning the Vuelta and retire.

What's your opinion about 2014 AC in relation to Froome?

At their absoulte peak Froome was stronger in 2014. It was celebrated as a very significant result when Contador was able to just about hold Froome's wheel in the big head to head at the Dauphine. I think that shows where the balance of power lies.

That's not to say that Contador couldn't beat Froome in the TdF - I think he could. When on top form he seems to be able to hold his peak for longer than Froome in Grand Tours. Froome has only seemed to be able to maintain top form for two weeks - either starting slowly (Vuelta) or finishing slightly weaker (Tour).

What did I just read? When were Contador and Froome both at their absolute peak in 2014 with Froome beating Contador? At the Dauphiné, of course people celebrated. At the Volta a Catalunya, Alberto beat Froome, but Froome came back from an illness. In 2013 Froome beat Contador like a puppy. It was very significant that Alberto could hang on, especially because Contador always is a little sub-par at the Dauphiné.

 

[LaFlorecita]

GT racing is now the strongest it has been since 2005 with 3 and a half super-GT-riders in prime condition.

Contador benefited from a weak GT-riding era...in the years 2007-2011. Only him and Andy Schleck.
Menchov, Evans and Sastre etc were never true 5 stars GT riders.

This is a very poor attempt by you to devalue Contador's career IMO. While there were not many 5 star GT riders, Contador's opposition was never low-level. And we still have the climbing times to prove it. You can say whatever you want, but fact is Verbier 2009 is the highest ever recorded VAM, on a relatively shallow climb (on a steeper climb his VAM would have been even higher). You don't beat Cancellara in a long ITT unless you are at an insane level. And these days, while there are more 5 star GT riders, it is rare to have more than 2 of them at the start line of a GT, and even rarer to have more than 2 of them in great shape. So the difference between now and a few years ago really isn't that significant.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If you look past the hype, the Big 4 story failed to materialise. For one reason or another, tho they are all good GT riders, they aren't riding away from the field together giving each other close duels. Instead, things look like they always have, sadly, if one or two riders crushing the rest. Are Quintana and Nibali any better than Menchov, Evans and Sastre? Nibali isn't, just luckier, and Quintana might go on to be but still isn't.

That said, Lance thought that the period after his retirement till his comeback was a weak era so perhaps there is something to it!

I pretty much agree. I like your posts BTW. I think you know it by now. Only difference (maybe). Bad luck put aside, Froome is above the rest, so there's no Big 4. It's Froome and a second tier with three riders, another tier with 5-6-7 riders. Contador is one of the three: I like your point about Lance thoughts. Contador should do Giro-Vuelta next year and say goodbye. Baring something unpredictable, he'll never beat Dawg in the TdF. No way. Contador should focus on winning the Vuelta and retire.

What's your opinion about 2014 AC in relation to Froome?

At their absoulte peak Froome was stronger in 2014. It was celebrated as a very significant result when Contador was able to just about hold Froome's wheel in the big head to head at the Dauphine. I think that shows where the balance of power lies.

That's not to say that Contador couldn't beat Froome in the TdF - I think he could. When on top form he seems to be able to hold his peak for longer than Froome in Grand Tours. Froome has only seemed to be able to maintain top form for two weeks - either starting slowly (Vuelta) or finishing slightly weaker (Tour).

What did I just read? When were Contador and Froome both at their absolute peak in 2014 with Froome beating Contador? At the Dauphiné, of course people celebrated. At the Volta a Catalunya, Alberto beat Froome, but Froome came back from an illness. In 2013 Froome beat Contador like a puppy. It was very significant that Alberto could hang on, especially because Contador always is a little sub-par at the Dauphiné.

The point is that Froome is the main man to beat now in GT's, not Alberto. That is because at his best he has absolutely crushed the opposition; Contador hasn't done this against top quality opponents since 2009.

At his absolute peak, Froome is in a league of his own. At his peak, he has been able to put over a minute into his rivals in the Tour de France in both MTFs and time trials. There is not doubt in my mind that even if Contador would have been on peak form in the time trial to Mont St Michel or the MTFs at Belles Filles and Pierre St Martin, he still would have lost considerable time to Froome.

Contador's advantage is that he can sustain his peak form for a full three weeks, Froome can't.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

If you look past the hype, the Big 4 story failed to materialise. For one reason or another, tho they are all good GT riders, they aren't riding away from the field together giving each other close duels. Instead, things look like they always have, sadly, if one or two riders crushing the rest. Are Quintana and Nibali any better than Menchov, Evans and Sastre? Nibali isn't, just luckier, and Quintana might go on to be but still isn't.

That said, Lance thought that the period after his retirement till his comeback was a weak era so perhaps there is something to it!

I pretty much agree. I like your posts BTW. I think you know it by now. Only difference (maybe). Bad luck put aside, Froome is above the rest, so there's no Big 4. It's Froome and a second tier with three riders, another tier with 5-6-7 riders. Contador is one of the three: I like your point about Lance thoughts. Contador should do Giro-Vuelta next year and say goodbye. Baring something unpredictable, he'll never beat Dawg in the TdF. No way. Contador should focus on winning the Vuelta and retire.

It is people like you who drive and motivate Contador. "He should just focus on winning the Vuelta and retire" I will thank you when he stands on the top step in Paris next year!

Get real guys, he isn't a loser. Of course he won't give up and just go for an easy Vuelta win (although I have no doubt many of you would like him to be a loser - god forbid him winning the Tour - your heads would explode )

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

The point is that Froome is the main man to beat now in GT's, not Alberto. That is because at his best he has absolutely crushed the opposition; Contador hasn't done this against top quality opponents since 2009.

At his absolute peak, Froome is in a league of his own. At his peak, he has been able to put over a minute into his rivals in the Tour de France in both MTFs and time trials. There is not doubt in my mind that even if Contador would have been on peak form in the time trial to Mont St Michel or the MTFs at Belles Filles and Pierre St Martin, he still would have lost considerable time to Froome.

Contador's advantage is that he can sustain his peak form for a full three weeks, Froome can't.

Unfortunately when Froome was at his absolute peak, Contador wasn't, so Froome managed to beat him quite convincingly. Does this mean Froome is in a league of his own when he is on peak form no it does not, not if Contador is on peak form too but I am not surprised you fail to see that.

To the bolded: I am not sure what you're babbling about because Froome won the sprint on la Planche des Belles Filles and Contador wasn't even in the race, anyway you are clueless if you believe Froome would still take considerable time on Contador when both are in similar shape, surely 2014 should have made you realize that.

Mr 1864m/h VAM & 420W FTP would lose "considerable" time to Froome on an uphill finish, excuse me while I laugh at your ridiculous beliefs.
I pray to the cycling gods that Alberto's decline hasn't started yet, and he can have a great preparation. He will show the world and ignorant cycling fans like you who is the best one last time. It will be like 2014, just with a Tour victory to remove any doubt.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

So, one of the big 4 beating 1 barely whilst the other 2 are in crap shape is an indicator he's heads and shoulders above the rest? Getting roasted in the last 2 mountain stages and winning thanks to your team is being heads and shoulders above the rest?

not really. froome lost the affordable amount of time in the last 2 stages. the race is won on the results of 3 weeks not 3rd week and it's problematic to point a rider who is as сrazy strong as froome in first 2 weeks.

You can't judge Nibali, who clearly wasn't as good as he could be
You can't judge Contador, who came into the Tour with the worst preperation of all time
I don't event think you can draw too much conclusions from Contador's Giro, he was never meant to start great there.

screwing up preparation cannot be ascribed as an excuse as quintana and froome constantly play against the same menace too.

in a nutshell the question 'who's the strongest gc rider now' is pretty senseless. every year balances of forces on top changes. as soon as the vuelta ends up the 2015 grand tours become the foretime and it will mean nothing for 2016.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The point is that Froome is the main man to beat now in GT's, not Alberto. That is because at his best he has absolutely crushed the opposition; Contador hasn't done this against top quality opponents since 2009.

At his absolute peak, Froome is in a league of his own. At his peak, he has been able to put over a minute into his rivals in the Tour de France in both MTFs and time trials. There is not doubt in my mind that even if Contador would have been on peak form in the time trial to Mont St Michel or the MTFs at Belles Filles and Pierre St Martin, he still would have lost considerable time to Froome.

Contador's advantage is that he can sustain his peak form for a full three weeks, Froome can't.

Unfortunately when Froome was at his absolute peak, Contador wasn't, so Froome managed to beat him quite convincingly. Does this mean Froome is in a league of his own when he is on peak form no it does not, not if Contador is on peak form too but I am not surprised you fail to see that.

To the bolded: I am not sure what you're babbling about because Froome won the sprint on la Planche des Belles Filles and Contador wasn't even in the race, anyway you are clueless if you believe Froome would still take considerable time on Contador when both are in similar shape, surely 2014 should have made you realize that.

Mr 1864m/h VAM & 420W FTP would lose "considerable" time to Froome on an uphill finish, excuse me while I laugh at your ridiculous beliefs.
I pray to the cycling gods that Alberto's decline hasn't started yet, and he can have a great preparation. He will show the world and ignorant cycling fans like you who is the best one last time. It will be like 2014, just with a Tour victory to remove any doubt.

You're just not looking at it objectively. Contador has already declined since 2011 and now, although he is still a great rider, isn't the main man to beat.

Look at the bookies odds to win the TdF next year. Contador is the third favourite at 6/1, while Froome is massive favourite at less than evens.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Bert doesn't have the speed required for one day classics. LBL might be winnable, at most, but nothing more. He's just not trained for that and is too late to change with respect to physiological decline with aging. Stage races are the appropriate choices that leverage his strength.

Indeed, thank you for your sensible reply. He might have been able to win a major one day race, had he focused on them for several years, several years back. He only has 1 year left, maybe two, and he is getting old. He would need a lucky break to win one and with his current physique and riding style it is just not realistic. On the other hand he could continue to focus on winning stage races which is the approach he will choose. I think it is completely logical to, instead of a 2% chance to win some 1-day race, go for a preparation and season which suits his abilities as a rider, and as a result of this approach it is highly likely he will win 1 or more 1-week stage races, and with a good chance he will arrive at the Tour in peak shape, ready to fight for the overall victory

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

You're just not looking at it objectively.

I could easily say the same about you but I won't.

Contador has already declined since 2011 and now, although he is still a great rider, isn't the main man to beat.

If Contador has declined since 2011, how do you explain 2014 when he had his best ever pre-TDF season and his best ever CQ season without even finishing the TDF?

If he has enough motivation, I am sure he will have a great season next year, and people will regard him as the main favorite for the race, just like in 2014.

It does feel very much like 2013, when practically everyone wrote him off, and the haters had a great time, using every opportunity to remind Contador fans that their hero had gotten his arse kicked and had turned into a worthless rider, and would never ever even win a race again, blah blah, then 2014 happened and they looked like total idiots. Now the same losers have returned. Do they ever learn probably not because they have like 3 brain cells.

Look at the bookies odds to win the TdF next year. Contador is the third favourite at 6/1, while Froome is massive favourite at less than evens.

[/quote]
Don't talk to me about bookmakers' odds. As SeriousSam can tell you, I do not value them at all. Froome is the massive favorite and Contador is far down only because of the results of this year's Tour de France, and that makes sense, however, next year is a new season and everything will be different. The bookies are clueless and just follow the tales of mainstream media. Their opinion is practically worthless to me.

 

[dacooley]

the bookies are extremely far from being clueless since they never dwell on dreams, hopes, expectations, romantics and all other materials fans (or haters) love that much. surely they also can be wrong but their mathematical model of risk assessment illustrates the view which is very close to reality. today froome is a favorite, after tirreno 2016 he can easily not be a favorite. no one knows how the things are going to develop.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

You're just not looking at it objectively.

I could easily say the same about you but I won't.

Contador has already declined since 2011 and now, although he is still a great rider, isn't the main man to beat.

If Contador has declined since 2011, how do you explain 2014 when he had his best ever pre-TDF season and his best ever CQ season without even finishing the TDF?

If he has enough motivation, I am sure he will have a great season next year, and people will regard him as the main favorite for the race, just like in 2014.

It does feel very much like 2013, when practically everyone wrote him off, and the haters had a great time, using every opportunity to remind Contador fans that their hero had gotten his arse kicked and had turned into a worthless rider, and would never ever even win a race again, blah blah, then 2014 happened and they looked like total idiots. Now the same losers have returned. Do they ever learn probably not because they have like 3 brain cells.

Look at the bookies odds to win the TdF next year. Contador is the third favourite at 6/1, while Froome is massive favourite at less than evens.

Don't talk to me about bookmakers' odds. As SeriousSam can tell you, I do not value them at all. Froome is the massive favorite and Contador is far down only because of the results of this year's Tour de France, and that makes sense, however, next year is a new season and everything will be different. The bookies are clueless and just follow the tales of mainstream media. Their opinion is practically worthless to me.[/quote]

I don't really see where anyone is 'hating' Contador. Please don't try to stifle discussion by turning a debate into some childish fan boys v haters narrative. Just a few people, myself included, think that at their respective best, he is a level below Froome now, and has been for three years. It's not a criticism of Contador, or hoping that he will lose, it's just based on what we have seen. Froome is now the number one GC rider to beat. Personally, I would be delighted if he could beat Froome at the TdF next year, but I don't rate his chances too highly.

The key question is what will Contador do now. Whether he will go all in to challenge Froome at the TdF, or whether he will look to pick up another relatively easy Giro/Vuelta win. Also, if he has genuine ambitions to do well at the Olympics (which, imo he has absolutely no chance of winning), then that could complicate any attempt at the TdF.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

So, one of the big 4 beating 1 barely whilst the other 2 are in crap shape is an indicator he's heads and shoulders above the rest? Getting roasted in the last 2 mountain stages and winning thanks to your team is being heads and shoulders above the rest?

not really. froome lost the affordable amount of time in the last 2 stages. the race is won on the results of 3 weeks not 3rd week and it's problematic to point a rider who is as сrazy strong as froome in first 2 weeks.

You can't judge Nibali, who clearly wasn't as good as he could be
You can't judge Contador, who came into the Tour with the worst preperation of all time
I don't event think you can draw too much conclusions from Contador's Giro, he was never meant to start great there.

screwing up preparation cannot be ascribed as an excuse as quintana and froome constantly play against the same menace too.

in a nutshell the question 'who's the strongest gc rider now' is pretty senseless. every year balances of forces on top changes. as soon as the vuelta ends up the 2015 grand tours become the foretime and it will mean nothing for 2016.

I'm not saying Froome didn't deserve to win, but you're not head and shoulders above the rest when you're hanging on for dear life to save your jersey and win by just over a minute, which you've won in the first week due to an echelon stage where he didn't do a single pull himself

as for the 'Big 4', it's obviously not about who's the best right now, but about the fact that if they all go to a GT in top form, they'll take 1-4th, so it's about peak level. We don't judge Froome by Catalunya results, or any race where he was off shape obviously, same goes for the other riders. So why draw so many conclusions from a single race where 2 best riders just missed their peak in spectacular fashion

 

[Red Rick]

As for Froome vs Contador, there was one race this year where they raced each other in arguably comparable shape. They finished 1 second apart. I'll leave the whole 'different season build up' argument out of this


Oh and bookmakers don't model the odds of someone winning, they model the betting behaviour. They make money because clueless people bet and because most of them the limit your maximum bet down pennies when they find out you crush them and just take their money.

Contador at 6/1 doesn't mean he has 15% chance of winning the Tour next year. It means they think they won't loose money if they offer those odds, because enough money will be bet on other riders.

If I make a couple of max bets on Contador right now, odds will go down. Surely my betting behaviour directly affects Alberto Contador's chances to win the TdF next year.

edit. and I think 6/1 is great ev, but very few want to have bets open for that long.

And can we please discuss betting odds in the appropriate thread,

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I don't really see where anyone is 'hating' Contador. Please don't try to stifle discussion by turning a debate into some childish fan boys v haters narrative. Just a few people, myself included, think that at their respective best, he is a level below Froome now, and has been for three years. It's not a criticism of Contador, or hoping that he will lose, it's just based on what we have seen. Froome is now the number one GC rider to beat. Personally, I would be delighted if he could beat Froome at the TdF next year, but I don't rate his chances too highly.

It was not really a reply to you but rather a general comment.
I do not agree with you that Froome is the main man to beat.

The key question is what will Contador do now. Whether he will go all in to challenge Froome at the TdF, or whether he will look to pick up another relatively easy Giro/Vuelta win. Also, if he has genuine ambitions to do well at the Olympics (which, imo he has absolutely no chance of winning), then that could complicate any attempt at the TdF.

He has already stated his goals next season are the Tour and the Olympics.
It will be difficult to win the Olympics but definitely not impossible. The Italian coach, Serge Pauwels and the Belgian coach named him among the potential winners after the test event. According to them a true stage racer will win, "Contador, Nibali, Froome, Valverde" are the names they named. I do not see how the Olympics will influence his preparation for the Tour. To win the Olympics, he would have to escape on the final ascent and TT the final 18km to the finish. For the Tour, he will have to be in great climbing shape and there will likely be a lot of ITT km too. Of course he will have peaked already, but his main opponents will have done so too, except for the Brazilians who will no doubt peak just for the Olympics.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I'm not saying Froome didn't deserve to win, but you're not head and shoulders above the rest when you're hanging on for dear life to save your jersey and win by just over a minute, which you've won in the first week due to an echelon stage where he didn't do a single pull himself

contador, froome and quintana are pretty much on the same climbing level imo with nibali being slightly below them. although, quintana's general gc level can be seriously questioned in a gt loaded by 30+ km ot timetrialing if the other 3 are in. it's very hard to judge their relative strength against each other because that's all about logics of sense (like/dislike), not logics of facts. there are no absolute metrics to think through their skills objectively for today. the only reason why we are looking into them like top-4 is each of them has dominant perfomances in the grand tours under their belts. nonetheless i don't find the difference between top-4 and others very big. valverde confirms it.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I don't really see where anyone is 'hating' Contador. Please don't try to stifle discussion by turning a debate into some childish fan boys v haters narrative. Just a few people, myself included, think that at their respective best, he is a level below Froome now, and has been for three years. It's not a criticism of Contador, or hoping that he will lose, it's just based on what we have seen. Froome is now the number one GC rider to beat. Personally, I would be delighted if he could beat Froome at the TdF next year, but I don't rate his chances too highly.

It was not really a reply to you but rather a general comment.
I do not agree with you that Froome is the main man to beat.

The key question is what will Contador do now. Whether he will go all in to challenge Froome at the TdF, or whether he will look to pick up another relatively easy Giro/Vuelta win. Also, if he has genuine ambitions to do well at the Olympics (which, imo he has absolutely no chance of winning), then that could complicate any attempt at the TdF.

He has already stated his goals next season are the Tour and the Olympics.
It will be difficult to win the Olympics but definitely not impossible. The Italian coach, Serge Pauwels and the Belgian coach named him among the potential winners after the test event. According to them a true stage racer will win, "Contador, Nibali, Froome, Valverde" are the names they named. I do not see how the Olympics will influence his preparation for the Tour. To win the Olympics, he would have to escape on the final ascent and TT the final 18km to the finish. For the Tour, he will have to be in great climbing shape and there will likely be a lot of ITT km too. Of course he will have peaked already, but his main opponents will have done so too, except for the Brazilians who will no doubt peak just for the Olympics.

It would be great to see him try the Olympics. Somewhat ironically given the animosity between then, the biggest help to him would be the fact that Valverde is favourite. If Contador did get a gap over the top, the other contenders might not be too keen to work together to reel him back in with Valverde just sitting on their wheel ready to outsprint them all. Although in that situation, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Bala chasing him down himself

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I'm not saying Froome didn't deserve to win, but you're not head and shoulders above the rest when you're hanging on for dear life to save your jersey and win by just over a minute, which you've won in the first week due to an echelon stage where he didn't do a single pull himself

contador, froome and quintana are pretty much on the same climbing level imo with nibali being slightly below them. although, quintana's general gc level can be seriously questioned in a gt loaded by 30+ km ot timetrialing if the other 3 are in. it's very hard to judge their relative strength against each other because that's all about logics of sense (like/dislike), not logics of facts. there are no absolute metrics to think through their skills objectively for today. the only reason why we are looking into them like top-4 is each of them has dominant perfomances in the grand tours under their belts. nonetheless i don't find the difference between top-4 and others very big. valverde confirms it.

I agree with you. Good post.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

As for Froome vs Contador, there was one race this year where they raced each other in arguably comparable shape. They finished 1 second apart. I'll leave the whole 'different season build up' argument out of this


Oh and bookmakers don't model the odds of someone winning, they model the betting behaviour. They make money because clueless people bet and because most of them the limit your maximum bet down pennies when they find out you crush them and just take their money.

Contador at 6/1 doesn't mean he has 15% chance of winning the Tour next year. It means they think they won't loose money if they offer those odds, because enough money will be bet on other riders.

the bookies present some probabilistic basis for sporting events which implies quite serious analysis. yeah, i agree with you they neutralize financial risks and fix ratios depending on the actual bets but it doesn't change much. they are way more objective than fans is the point i stand by. i don't believe bookmakers much but it can be fun to read sometimes what they think.

 

[Carols]

'It's a pleasure being at Saxo Bank, great sponsor and better people!!!'

From FB. Alberto is visiting at Saxo Bank headquarters.....I hope they make him an offer to sponsor his Foundation team .

 

[Electress]

Can anyone tell me if there's a way to block posts based on keywords?

 

[Carols]

Re:

Can anyone tell me if there's a way to block posts based on keywords?

Only by user name to my knowledge. You could try asking in About the Forum sub-forum.