Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[Publicus]

This is bull****. Nibali is a way better rider than two years ago

I dont doubt it and I still dont think he can keep pace with Contador. Im open to being proved wrong (crow is delicious roasted with olive oil and garlic ), but nothing I've seen indicates, if they are both at their best, Nibali can climb with Contador.

 

[Publicus]

Nah, see it is more likely Porte, Talansky, Valverde will ride against AC, without AC they have more chances to stand on the podium and they are ahead of him in GC anyway. lol

Sadly this is most likely to be the case

 

[DirtyWorks]

This is bull****. Nibali is a way better rider than two years ago

But, he's just become the GC leader with 2+ weeks of racing left. Being #1 on GC is a heavy, heavy burden and he's got it really early.

Talansky and TJ will offer Nibali some distraction before they both fall off the GC podium through some combination of bad luck and mismanagement.

Meanwhile, we know Contador's a smart guy with flashes of tactical brilliance on the road. He's been making plenty of power, so taking time climbing should not be an issue.

 

[orangerider]

I hope Jesus is okay Any news? It is a morale blow for Alberto to lose him. His riding for the last couple of years makes me wonder how he gets the start, but Alberto seems to relish his company and will miss him dearly

I also heard the clip by Slanger on the other teams thinking Alberto has peaked to soon. They can believe that at their Peril. Go ahead make your plans based on that premise, we'll see how it works for you on Monday

History says Berto still has a good chance to win this race, he will never give up!

Agree it's a big emotional loss for Alberto with little to no tactical loss though. I don't know if Jesus would even make for a category 3 rider sometimes.

 

[red_flanders]

But, he's just become the GC leader with 2+ weeks of racing left. Being #1 on GC is a heavy, heavy burden and he's got it really early.

He does not offer the appearance of a man about to crack, mentally or physically. He'll bear the burden well.

 

[sacrifice&hardwork]

The discussion was on the rumor that Contador may have peaked to early that was going around. I remembered someone from Astana (couldn't place the exact name, but was correct it was Slongo) had said basically that before the Tour.

I didn't say I believed that, in fact I think Contador is in good form and timed his peak fine. I was just putting out that perhaps this is where these rumors of Contador peaking too early originated from (I even said that).

I've seen it again and apparently the rumor is mostly based on "the way he's been riding these past few days." So Steve's report was based on recent events since he was going around asking different teams their views on Alberto. And of course Phil mentioned that how is it possible to judge Alberto's condition if they haven't even reach the mountains yet.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

i think berto will smash the field at some point and then defend a small lead over nibali in the time trial.

 

[movingtarget]

i think berto will smash the field at some point and then defend a small lead over nibali in the time trial.

Nibali overachieved on the cobbles and some people think the race is over already. Nibali has never out climbed Contador in a GT and it remains to be seen whether he can or whether he can even defend his lead. Nibali has a good gap but Astana don't look too strong to me as far as the mountains go but then Contador is also now without Hernandez and Kreuziger. This is far from over but it's also to Nibali's advantage that all of his rivals lost big time, Froome is out, Rodriguez is out of form. The nearest danger is Kwiatowski and no one expects him to win the Tour.

Nibali will still be tough to crack as he knows he is in a winning position and is an experienced grand tour winner but that also adds a lot of pressure as well and the attacks are sure to come from many GC riders. Knowing which attacks to follow will be the hard part as teams like Garmin don't mind attacking from a distance. I think Porte is in a good position without any real pressure on his team to work on the front. He could be the one to watch if he has regained his form from last year. Nibali's watching of Contador could also help riders like TJVG and VDB. At some point Astana will have to let attacks go and that will be the danger for Nibali if his team are not at their best in the mountains.

 

[whittashau]

Astana have a pretty good team for the mountains:

Scarponi, Westra, Kangert, and Birdsong are all quality climbers. Grivko also looks to be climbing well.

 

[LaFlorecita]

This is bull****. Nibali is a way better rider than two years ago

Nah, see it is more likely Porte, Talansky, Valverde will ride against AC, without AC they have more chances to stand on the podium and they are ahead of him in GC anyway. lol

i don't know if nibbles is way ahead of Fulgsang, so far I am very impressive with birdsong. Even on the cobbles, Nibbles is hanging his dear life onto F's wheel. I think Astana wants play if defensively at this point, if AC attacks F and VN will chase, if VN falters maybe F can fill his shoes. Why at this early stage to throw away your second best GC position?

Oh oh oh, Nibali fans clutching at straws I see would be cool to see Alberto smash Nibali

I was thinking to myself last night, what was my initial expectation of this tour? I was thinking, Contador 1st, Froome at 1 minute or so and Nibali a further 2-3 minutes back. Of course, we know once Alberto has a race in the bag, he doesn't really take a lot more time. But now he has to. It will be interesting. It all depends on Nibali's shape IMO. I am confident Alberto is strong enough to take time on Nibali but how much?

Either way, whatever happens, I hope Contador wins a couple stages at least. That way a possible 2nd place wouldn't be a complete failure. Oh, and the polka dot jersey would be cool with Froome out, I think Contador is the best climber, so it should be possible since he has to attack on every MTF to close the gap to Nibali.

 

[inthepink]

I really can't believe the Contador fans on here

You have written him off or voted for someone else to win or suggested he settle for second, etc
Fair weather fans I would say.... what happened to backing someone all the way rather than giving up on them after 6 stages

Astana have great day in the cobbles and that is it ??? You forget Fuglsang's background and Nibalis mountain bike handling skills

Yeah....but the informed pundits on thsi forum are now declaring Nibali the winner and some even saying he will be a great Tour champion

Noting has been won or lost yet ....
If Contador had lost 2.5 minutes or even 1 minute to Froome well yes maybe ......

Contador has handicapped himself to make it a fairer fight, that is all

If you can't back your 'hero' when he is behind then you'd seriously want to re evaluate your fan status

 

[icefire]

He does not offer the appearance of a man about to crack, mentally or physically. He'll bear the burden well.

That was also the case in last year's Vuelta... until stage 16.

 

[Red Rick]

Oh oh oh, Nibali fans clutching at straws I see would be cool to see Alberto smash Nibali

Don't be deceived by my new avatar. I actually want to see Contador win it. I just think it's unfair to judge Nibali by the fact that he wasn't able to drop Wiggins in 2012. I think Nibali has become a better rider basically every year (except for maybe 2011). I still think that if Contador is as at his best, there's basically nothing that can he done. He'll look Nibali in the eye, just before sprinting away from him, and no amount of coöperating GC riders or dom's that will reel him back in

 

[xanadu]

I really can't believe the Contador fans on here

You have written him off or voted for someone else to win or suggested he settle for second, etc
Fair weather fans I would say.... what happened to backing someone all the way rather than giving up on them after 6 stages

Astana have great day in the cobbles and that is it ??? You forget Fuglsang's background and Nibalis mountain bike handling skills

Yeah....but the informed pundits on thsi forum are now declaring Nibali the winner and some even saying he will be a great Tour champion

Noting has been won or lost yet ....
If Contador had lost 2.5 minutes or even 1 minute to Froome well yes maybe ......

Contador has handicapped himself to make it a fairer fight, that is all

If you can't back your 'hero' when he is behind then you'd seriously want to re evaluate your fan status

Albertro is a mountain pixie rather like Beloki was. He does not sprint, he does not enter Paris-Roubaix, he lights up the mountains. The cobbles were a tasty apperetif, the main course is yet to be served. Patience mes enfants, the mountains await.

 

[No_Balls]

Astana have great day in the cobbles and that is it ??? You forget Fuglsang's background and Nibalis mountain bike handling skills

Importaint point to make. Nibali drove like a man possessed but his ride must also be judged upon the teams efforts, or rather how capable Astana are in these sorts of terrains and they are without doubt the strongest there. It would have been foolish not to try to use that as an advantage, which they did.

If you can't back your 'hero' when he is behind then you'd seriously want to re evaluate your fan status

Sure, there was some sore moment after Arenberg when there was some pessimitic attitude going on here. Probably in light of the overall impressions (Contador dropped, his team looked unable to put up a decent fight and lost a little time) and one tends to be overly pessimistic as a defense mechanism. But once the dust has settled, and people started to realise that it wasnt that bad, the optimistic spirit has begun to flourish again.

 

[murali]

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939

claims nibali has 6.5% fat and Westra has 5%.

is this a good number or a bad one? how will this reflect in stage 13+

 

[Red Rick]

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939

claims nibali has 6.5% fat and Westra has 5%.

is this a good number or a bad one? how will this reflect in stage 13+

I think it's good. I think only the Froome's of this world actually get under 5%, which is really unhealthy

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think it's good. I think only the Froome's of this world actually get under 5%, which is really unhealthy

I think Contador is at around 5%

 

[Rollthedice]

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939

claims nibali has 6.5% fat and Westra has 5%.

is this a good number or a bad one? how will this reflect in stage 13+

I think Contador has less than Nibali, good for the mountains and bad for Arenberg. I think if Froome would have been healthy in stage five he would have had the same deficit if not more than Contador. This Tour has a fair amount of stages that favor classics type of riders, true all-rounders and it seems that Nibali wants to get as much as possible time gaps to Contador before the four big mountain stages towards the end will come. I expect, if there is a possibility, that Nibali will also ride aggresively during this weekend and Monday's stage because anything can happen during the very hard MTFs later where Contador presumably is stronger. I think, if nothing out of the ordinary happens that in the TT the difference between Nibali and Contador to be less than 30 sec in either of the two riders advantage.

 

[murali]

is this advantage Contador or advantage Nibali?

 

[Rollthedice]

is this advantage Contador or advantage Nibali?

Body fat? I don't know. Maybe ask Dr. Feelgood Ferrari.

 

[Red Rick]

I think Contador is at around 5%

Nibali still likes his pizza too much

 

[LaFlorecita]

Nibali still likes his pizza too much

He should do like Contador and only eat salads in the off season or snack on beansprouts like Froome

 

[webbie146]

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939

claims nibali has 6.5% fat and Westra has 5%.

is this a good number or a bad one? how will this reflect in stage 13+

The optimal fat percentage differs per athlete. At a certain point losing more fat is not a option anymore, because the athlete will lose power output + recovery ability. Nibali has done a lot of GT's now and he knows what his optimal fat % is.

Athlete A can have a 5% fat percentage, and athlete B 6% but that does not mean always mean he is 'sharper'. Athlete B could lose power output at 4% so he will be 5% at the start of the tdf. Athlete B loses power at 5% so he will start the tdf at around 6%

During the tdf those initial numbers will lower because u always lose weight during a GT.

It's all about finding the optimal number for the athlete, differs per person.

Let's say Nibali get's down to 5%. His power output goes from 430 to 410W. This would mean in the flat TT he would perform worse, in the mountains it would not help either because his output is down. That Contador is around 5% and Nibali 6/6,5% does not say anything about how the will perform.

 

[movingtarget]

Astana have a pretty good team for the mountains:

Scarponi, Westra, Kangert, and Birdsong are all quality climbers. Grivko also looks to be climbing well.

I am not as optimistic as you. Scarponi has seen better days as has Grivko, Westra is not a climber but can do the job similar to Kyrienka for Sky, Birdsong was great on the cobbles but often goes missing on the big climbs although he has improved in recent times. The good thing for Astana is there is no team really that has a dominant team of climbers. Contador is without Kreuziger and Hernandez, Rogers did the Giro as did Majka. Sky is down to 7 riders but still look ok for the mountains. BMC and Garmin are not that strong either so the mountains will probably be more of a battle of the team leaders instead of one team dominating the others. The French teams should place some riders in the lead group. Movistar should do well in the mountains but no Quintana for Valverde. I don't see Nibali having team mates with him when the real attacks start happening.