Teams & Riders Alberto Contador Discussion Thread

[mrhender]

I guess you are so enchanted to tell the difference between black and white. But then you are the one who pick the Nibali to win the Tour. LOL And the hard stone fact is before the crash TJVG and AC are close on GC. And please stop using ancient historical data to back up your bull**** theory. Keep in mind, we are talking about this Tour.

Actually I don't blame you for beeing upset if you support TJVG...
I would probably be upset to.. But if you think that it was Tinkoff's objective to serve him a serious setback I think you're wrong..

The decision to go on the front was of defensive nature first of all (trying to keep AC out of accumulative trouble following the crash)..
Of course they don't mind that a potential rival looses time, but that was not the objective..

 

[maxmartin]

Actually I don't blame you for beeing upset if you support TJVG...
I would probably be upset to.. But if you think that it was Tinkoff's objective to serve him a serious setback I think you're wrong..

The decision to go on the front was of defensive nature first of all (trying to keep AC out of accumulative trouble following the crash)..
Of course they don't mind that a potential rival looses time, but that was not the objective..

this is also quite possible

 

[SeriousSam]

TJVG has approximately ~0% chance to win the Tour (and had 0.01% before today). The notion that riders fighting for GC victory do anything at all with the express purpose to put time into TJVG is just absurd.

 

[mrhender]

Nah, Porte will attack in the final climb, only Nibali can follow. And AC will be only a few seconds behind.

This scenario is also possible..
Over the years AC has lost some explosive power, and the stage/climb is not hard/steep and long enough to suit him well..

I would not be surprised if he looses a few seconds and people will be quick to deem him out if so.. But when it gets really tough and steep AC will win it back and then some IMO...

 

[maxmartin]

This scenario is also possible..
Over the years AC has lost some explosive power, and the stage/climb is not hard/steep and long enough to suit him well..

I would not be surprised if he looses a few seconds and people will be quick to deem him out if so.. But when it gets really tough and steep AC will win it back and then some IMO...

first mountain stage could be a moral boost, I expect a big fight. And after today's crash, pitbull crazy AT is all fired up. Maybe he could also be a factor. (unlikely due to heavy crash today) Can't wait!

 

[Publicus]

all I am saying timing is suspicious, it is not like they are pushing the pace all along, they just started pushing pace immediately after TJVG crashed

lol too much for me. i'm not going to follow you down that rabbit hole.

 

[Publicus]

This scenario is also possible..
Over the years AC has lost some explosive power, and the stage/climb is not hard/steep and long enough to suit him well..

I would not be surprised if he looses a few seconds and people will be quick to deem him out if so.. But when it gets really tough and steep AC will win it back and then some IMO...

It's plenty hard/steep (2nd/final climb):

1st climb:

2nd climb:

3rd climb:

I do agree the final climb isn't long enough unless they race the penultimate stage hard and someone pops on the final steep gradients. Could lose 10-15 seconds easy in that case.

I see this as a Valverde stage.

 

[SeriousSam]

I see this as a Valverde stage.

Yes, if he's in form this could be his stage.

 

[LaFlorecita]

This scenario is also possible..
Over the years AC has lost some explosive power, and the stage/climb is not hard/steep and long enough to suit him well..

I would not be surprised if he looses a few seconds and people will be quick to deem him out if so.. But when it gets really tough and steep AC will win it back and then some IMO...

Lost some explosive power? Stage 1 Pais Vasco says hello

 

[LaFlorecita]

I guess you are so enchanted to tell the difference between black and white.

Is there anyone who agrees with your theory that Saxo tried to put time into Tejay? No.

But then you are the one who pick the Nibali to win the Tour. LOL

Indeed

And the hard stone fact is before the crash TJVG and AC are close on GC. And please stop using ancient historical data to back up your bull**** theory. Keep in mind, we are talking about this Tour.

1 month ago is ancient? Okay then. Besides, I've posted old results ONCE.

Christ guy, you sound so frustrated, you must be scared ****less at the thought of Contador beating Nibali. Get real.

 

[mrhender]

It's plenty hard/steep (2nd/final climb):

I do agree the final climb isn't long enough unless they race the penultimate stage hard and someone pops on the final steep gradients. Could lose 10-15 seconds easy in that case.

I see this as a Valverde stage.

Thanks for details..

And yes I have to agree that the climbs are/should be AC territory..
The problem is the lenght of the climbs.. (as you also state)

No-one will go all out on the first one which is the longest and the other two are so short that they fovorises explosivity hence not AC..

This is a stage where he really needs his team to be there to set tempo until the last one.. Otherwise he will have to be selective in responding and may use a lot of unnecessary energy..

 

[murali]

It's plenty hard/steep (2nd/final climb):

1st climb:

2nd climb:

3rd climb:

I do agree the final climb isn't long enough unless they race the penultimate stage hard and someone pops on the final steep gradients. Could lose 10-15 seconds easy in that case.

I see this as a Valverde stage.

thank you for the climb profiles.

the first climb peaks at 19 km frm the finish.
the penultimate climb is just 11 km from the finish.


all the explosive stuff happens within the last @ 25 km.


I really like this stage. seems like first climb to make grouppettos, second to make a <20 selection; and the final for Valverde/Kwiato attack like Fleche.

If Nibali is strong, he may lose only a few secs. but if he is not, as i believe, he may lose 15-20 secs.

 

[indianfanboy]

He spins a big gear these days he surely should have some explosive power

The stage in Basque,Following Dawg's super mutant attacks in Dauphine and the way he led the group of favourites in Jenkins road shows that he is not lacking in that department

 

[Jack_89]

Lost some explosive power? Stage 1 Pais Vasco says hello [/Ehhehe

However , i don't think berto will be drop by anyone tomorrow. I don't want believe it !

 

[Afrank]

Everyone, please take a step back and think before you hit post. There's no need to resort to insults, trolling, or trolling accusations. We can all discuss Contador and Nibali and anyone else without getting worked up about it. Thank you.

 

[mrhender]

Lost some explosive power? Stage 1 Pais Vasco says hello

I see your point and he's been better this year than last, but TDF is a totally different venue with different actors and only one agenda as opposite to many other races used to develope "base form" for the best riders..

So I base my assumption regarding explossiveness on his TDF development primarily..

I may be wrong but stand my ground

 

[murali]

Thanks for details..

And yes I have to agree that the climbs are/should be AC territory..
The problem is the lenght of the climbs.. (as you also state)

No-one will go all out on the first one which is the longest and the other two are so short that they fovorises explosivity hence not AC..

This is a stage where he really needs his team to be there to set tempo until the last one.. Otherwise he will have to be selective in responding and may use a lot of unnecessary energy..

i disagree with ur analysis of the short climb. The Jenkin roads seems to imply tht he wud simply ride within top-5 of the group. with @ 9 km from the peek to the bottom of the last climb, this wud just be a selection climb, not a launch point for the favorites.

 

[Rollthedice]

I think Contador with enter top 10 tomorrow, maybe round his deficit to Nibali to 2:30. Valverde could take the stage if he tries (probably not).

 

[richwagmn]

I think Contador with enter top 10 tomorrow, maybe round his deficit to Nibali to 2:30. Valverde could take the stage if he tries (probably not).

I'm not sure he'll take any time from Nibali tomorrow. Climbs just aren't big enough.

I do think Alberto's in a good position though. Nibali doesn't seem to have as big an engine on the long steep stuff (witness last year's Vuelta). Alberto is far more explosive than Nibali too. I think Alberto is looking fine for the final week.

Of course, if AC senses any weakness prior to that, we know he'll take full advantage.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I see your point and he's been better this year than last, but TDF is a totally different venue with different actors and only one agenda as opposite to many other races used to develope "base form" for the best riders..

So I base my assumption regarding explossiveness on his TDF development primarily..

I may be wrong but stand my ground

But if we're only looking at TDF, we have last year, when he was in very poor form, and then before that 2011, where he almost beat Evans on one of the earlier stages on a similar finish

 

[maxmartin]

I'm not sure he'll take any time from Nibali tomorrow. Climbs just aren't big enough.

I do think Alberto's in a good position though. Nibali doesn't seem to have as big an engine on the long steep stuff (witness last year's Vuelta). Alberto is far more explosive than Nibali too. I think Alberto is looking fine for the final week.

Of course, if AC senses any weakness prior to that, we know he'll take full advantage.

he could be fine for the third week, but by that time could the gap be too big to recover? Like I said many times either AC is trying to peak at the best in the third week or he peaked too early. I think the first couple stages in the alps will decide who is going to win the Tour, although AC insists the winner will be decided in the Pyreness.

 

[inthepink]

First of all Contador does not need to respond to anyone tomorrow except Nibali ...only Nibali....not Porte and not Fuglsang ....let them do their worst ...let Astana respond if need be to SKY or Garmon or Lotto or Movistar
Contador does not ahve the yellow jersey

I don't believe on TCS setting pace of 2nd last climb because they will run out before the end and leave Contador alone
Let Astana set the pace

Follow and wait and and see......tomorrow is not for Contador to win
However if he follows he can use team on last climb to but hammer down and launch ...but let Astana do some work ....long way to go ...need to start letting them take the load

TCS need not act like a team chasing ......need to act like a team in control

Need to call some bluff and not play all their cards early

 

[pigoonse]

First of all Contador does not need to respond to anyone tomorrow except Nibali ...only Nibali....not Porte and not Fuglsang ....let them do their worst ...let Astana respond if need be to SKY or Garmon or Lotto or Movistar
Contador does not ahve the yellow jersey

I don't believe on TCS setting pace of 2nd last climb because they will run out before the end and leave Contador alone
Let Astana set the pace

Follow and wait and and see......tomorrow is not for Contador to win
However if he follows he can use team on last climb to but hammer down and launch ...but let Astana do some work ....long way to go ...need to start letting them take the load

TCS need not act like a team chasing ......need to act like a team in control

Need to call some bluff and not play all their cards early

Thanks. You explained that well and it makes sense. And you pretty much answered the question I was going to ask ...will Contador attack tomorrow?

 

[richwagmn]

he could be fine for the third week, but by that time could the gap be too big to recover? Like I said many times either AC is trying to peak at the best in the third week or he peaked too early. I think the first couple stages in the alps will decide who is going to win the Tour, although AC insists the winner will be decided in the Pyreness.

Possibly but I just don't see Nibali being able to put much climbing pressure on AC. Certainly not with the form he showed prior to the tour. But, who knows? Maybe Nibali's form is peaking exactly with the TDF.

But maybe Nibali knows he needs to take time on Contador any way he can before the third week because his climbing form isn't all that great.

 

[maxmartin]

Possibly but I just don't see Nibali being able to put much climbing pressure on AC. Certainly not with the form he showed prior to the tour. But, who knows? Maybe Nibali's form is peaking exactly with the TDF.

But maybe Nibali knows he needs to take time on Contador any way he can before the third week because his climbing form isn't all that great.

Let's find out as early as tomorrow.