rm7 said:
Tbh i don't think Contador have a chance to win this ITT.. but he will definitely be in top8, maybe even top5. It really depends on riders like Zakarin, Boaro, Kangert etc, if they'll go full gas or just roll trough.
It's 44 KM flat, around 8-9 KM hills at low %, and then descent.
44 KM flat, a lot of riders will put time into him, and then hills are also in TT position, not steep climbs where he'll ride like a climb. The descents are technical ones, but i don't think he'll risk anything there to gain maybe 5-10 seconds.
It's a power TT. But the interesting thing is, that Porte really had trouble following his teammates wheel the other day when they were trying to get him back to the peleton. So maybe Contador could beat him.
A lot of riders will put time into Contador on 44km flat? No way, he's one of the best TTers in this field, especially after 2 weeks of hard racing.
Even mini-Berto got some good results, and he wasn't as powerful as he is now
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=5747
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=5741
In fact, I checked his positions in 40+ km TTs since 2007 (I did count 2012 Vuelta and 2008 Giro which were both 39.4km):
35* - 6 - 5 - 2 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 6 - 35* - 3 - 3 - 2 - 9
Granted we have no results since the 2012 Vuelta, and he has never ridden such a long ITT (closest we have are the 2 at the 2007 TDF), and the field was weak in some of these (but then again the field here is weak too). However it shows he is definitely NOT as bad as some people clearly think he is. He has a history of being underrated in ITTs, even though he has proven the doubters wrong many times.