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Nah, was almost 2 minutes down in an echelon, but got picked up by a larger echelon from behind and that big group worked well to close down the gap quite easily in the end. Front group was simply too smallAngliru said:Red Rick said:
He didn't crash again did he?
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He's s.t. with Izagirre and Yates, so they aren't a threat, I feel. I thought he'd beat them before the race so this doesn't change.
Zakarin is 17 seconds ahead. He's a big threat, he can both TT and climb really well. Normally, I'd think Contador can outclimb him, but it is a bit of a mystery how well Zaka will TT. A lot will depend on that.
The same counts for Henao, Martin and Alaphilippe and to a lesser extent Gallopin. Gallopin I don't really see as a threat, I think he'll lose a lot in the high mountains. Henao and Martin aren't great TTers, Martin is pretty *** in fact, but the climb will help them limit their losses. Alaphilippe is decent and keeps picking up bonus seconds. He's dangerous as well. I think Alberto could take about 20s on Henao and Alaphilippe and 40s on Martin in the ITT. Then he'll have to try and follow them on stage 6 (or he could go from far ), the finish suits those 3 well. So then everything depends on stage 7 and 8. If Alberto is in super climbing shape, he can gain on all of them on Couillole. And most importantly, the tough first stages may work in his advantage at that point, because he has great recovery. I definitely could see one or more of those riders completely collapse uphill just due to tired legs. So, even though in terms of time he was the biggest loser out of them in these stages, he could end up the biggest winner. We will see. He needs great legs and some luck with the form of his rivals, if they have insane form it will be close to impossible regardless of his own legs.
My thoughts:rune1107 said:
He's s.t. with Izagirre and Yates, so they aren't a threat, I feel. I thought he'd beat them before the race so this doesn't change.
Zakarin is 17 seconds ahead. He's a big threat, he can both TT and climb really well. Normally, I'd think Contador can outclimb him, but it is a bit of a mystery how well Zaka will TT. A lot will depend on that.
The same counts for Henao, Martin and Alaphilippe and to a lesser extent Gallopin. Gallopin I don't really see as a threat, I think he'll lose a lot in the high mountains. Henao and Martin aren't great TTers, Martin is pretty *** in fact, but the climb will help them limit their losses. Alaphilippe is decent and keeps picking up bonus seconds. He's dangerous as well. I think Alberto could take about 20s on Henao and Alaphilippe and 40s on Martin in the ITT. Then he'll have to try and follow them on stage 6 (or he could go from far
), the finish suits those 3 well. So then everything depends on stage 7 and 8. If Alberto is in super climbing shape, he can gain on all of them on Couillole. And most importantly, the tough first stages may work in his advantage at that point, because he has great recovery. I definitely could see one or more of those riders completely collapse uphill just due to tired legs. So, even though in terms of time he was the biggest loser out of them in these stages, he could end up the biggest winner. We will see. He needs great legs and some luck with the form of his rivals, if they have insane form it will be close to impossible regardless of his own legs.
Good analysis LaFlo, but I think at least one of Henao and Alafpolak will surprise in the time trial considering the steep finishing climb. I could see both do very well, maybe even win on a very good day?
Martin and Yates no threats. Martin is a downright scrub in the time trial. Izagirre, I don't quite believe in him either.
Martin and Yates no threats. Martin is a downright scrub in the time trial. Izagirre, I don't quite believe in him either.
As of now, I think only one of these can win:
Alaphilippe
Henao +17''
Zakarin +55''
Contador +1'12''
I'd be way more comfortable if Contador had the same time as Zaka.
Alaphilippe
Henao +17''
Zakarin +55''
Contador +1'12''
I'd be way more comfortable if Contador had the same time as Zaka.
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Yes, Would have made it even more interesting if Izagirre stayed in the first group - a free for all.Netserk said:
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I should say, for the TT, I feel Alaphilippe is a decent TTer, but could lose uphill to Henao and Contador. While Henao is a bit worse on the flat section but could do a really good climb. So that's why I said 20s behind Berto for both. Of course, it's only a guess, and of course either could surpriseValv.Piti said:
Gallopin is no problem. Gets wrecked on the mountain stage
Only Henao and Dan Martin have hopes of hanging on to Contador on the high mountain stage, but both are likely to lose part of their advantage of their ITT and are less suited to climbs as the MTF this year. Both have an advantage on the Fayence stage though. Dan Martin has had a few decent performances on the high mountains, but his TT is the most dreadful of all. For Henao I can barely remeber a good reference point for climbs like this.
Alaphillipe may break met down completely on the MTF, but if he doesn't he'll be hard to crack on the final stage, with his mad descending skillz.
Zakarin should be dropped on the MTF, no question.
That's all if Contador is good.
Only Henao and Dan Martin have hopes of hanging on to Contador on the high mountain stage, but both are likely to lose part of their advantage of their ITT and are less suited to climbs as the MTF this year. Both have an advantage on the Fayence stage though. Dan Martin has had a few decent performances on the high mountains, but his TT is the most dreadful of all. For Henao I can barely remeber a good reference point for climbs like this.
Alaphillipe may break met down completely on the MTF, but if he doesn't he'll be hard to crack on the final stage, with his mad descending skillz.
Zakarin should be dropped on the MTF, no question.
That's all if Contador is good.
rick james
BANNED
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that's right, no worry about the man that is ill...just as long has he didn't infect bertoLaFlorecita said:
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It's just a stomach flu, he's hardly terminally ill. Besides, I'm pretty sure Jesus cares more about Berto than about himself. Bromancerick james said:
I think you drastically are underrating Zakarin here, Red Rick. His shape is on an upward trajectory. He may be dropped, but its far from a given.
Could be. The wishfulness isn't insignificant.
A whole lot will depend on how hard Trek can make the race though. If Contador is left alone with 30 people to drop it's gonna be near impossible. I'm hoping for Pantano to tear everybody a new one
A whole lot will depend on how hard Trek can make the race though. If Contador is left alone with 30 people to drop it's gonna be near impossible. I'm hoping for Pantano to tear everybody a new one
With Porte out, i think Henao is the big threat for GC, or at least the favorite. i don't see Alaphilippe survive Saturday
The weather seem to be playing a big factor so far. Don't be surprised if the Mountain stage does not go the way of the pure clmbers.
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If he is the strongest climber still relevant to GC, and on paper indeed he is, it's not impossible for him to do it alone or nearly alone. He will however have to avoid playing around with whoever he regards as his main rival, speeding up and slowing down, sitting on his wheel etc. There are too many guys who can't be let up the road for that. He would have to attack and then just keep riding.
In fairness it's kind of hard to see him giving Zakarin, Martin or Henao the full Froome/Quintana mano a mano treatment. And still less Alaphillipe or Gallopin.
Red Rick said:
If he is the strongest climber still relevant to GC, and on paper indeed he is, it's not impossible for him to do it alone or nearly alone. He will however have to avoid playing around with whoever he regards as his main rival, speeding up and slowing down, sitting on his wheel etc. There are too many guys who can't be let up the road for that. He would have to attack and then just keep riding.
In fairness it's kind of hard to see him giving Zakarin, Martin or Henao the full Froome/Quintana mano a mano treatment. And still less Alaphillipe or Gallopin.
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Yeah I don't expect him to. I guess he'll attack like in Andalucía. Push a hard pace and don't look back.Zinoviev Letter said:
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I think Dan Martin has much more of a chance than Contador. Even if he loses 30 seconds on the TT, he'll still be 20 seconds ahead, and climbs pretty much as well as Contador in week long stage races - especially on single mountain stages. Plus he could easily find himself up the road, with no one willing to chase him down, if Alaphilippe is in yellow.
Izagirre as well, because they are much more likely to go under the radar. If Contador attacks, the whole peloton is on red alert, and no-one will let him up the road. It's too hard for him now; being a minute down and still very heavily marked means he's got very little chance imo. Izagirre might be able to close the gap in the TT and is just about low profile enough that he could sneak away on the climb without being seen as too big a threat.
Netserk said:
I think Dan Martin has much more of a chance than Contador. Even if he loses 30 seconds on the TT, he'll still be 20 seconds ahead, and climbs pretty much as well as Contador in week long stage races - especially on single mountain stages. Plus he could easily find himself up the road, with no one willing to chase him down, if Alaphilippe is in yellow.
Izagirre as well, because they are much more likely to go under the radar. If Contador attacks, the whole peloton is on red alert, and no-one will let him up the road. It's too hard for him now; being a minute down and still very heavily marked means he's got very little chance imo. Izagirre might be able to close the gap in the TT and is just about low profile enough that he could sneak away on the climb without being seen as too big a threat.
I just wanna see this again;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szLGtG_yQzo
Is that too much to ask? I don't like reality!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szLGtG_yQzo
Is that too much to ask?
I don't like reality!I would expect some team bashing on this forum after today. Not much help in the echelons (or downright crap?). Be it Tinkoff, I think critics would be here already. But this is not Tinkoff, is it? That could be the point actually.
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There would be a lot of it if some of his teammates hadn't redeemed themselves by catching back up to his group and then hammering it to bring his group back.
Kokoso said:
There would be a lot of it if some of his teammates hadn't redeemed themselves by catching back up to his group and then hammering it to bring his group back.
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PatienceinfeXio said:I just wanna see this again;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szLGtG_yQzo
Is that too much to ask?
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