Fitch’s two papers (there was another on asthma that was relevant) were discussed on this thread a long time ago. There’s nothing in them that makes a case against the salbutamol limit that wasn’t well known to WADA—a few cases of athletes exceeding the limit, and a couple of studies showing great variability. I dissected his claims on this thread at that time. The notion that this destroys the old salbutamol level is way over the top. As I said before, out of maybe 10-15,000 tests of asthmatic athletes per year, there appear to be only half a dozen who exceed the limit without a TUE and aren't exonerated. There's no reason to think those half a dozen were not in fact doping.
I’m not going to go into details on simulations, particularly since I don’t know exactly what they did. I will say that the simplest type of simulation that could have been run was probably one in which various salbutamol doses were associated with various urine levels with weighted probabilities. E.g., 100 ug would have, say, 20% chance of returning 50 ng/ml, 30% chance of 100 ng/ml, and so on. This would assume the sample was given a certain time after inhalation. For other times, for multiple doses at different times, and for urination in between dose and sample, the weights would have to be adjusted to different values. Presumably the effect of inhaling one day on the next day was also accounted for.
But there are all kinds of problems with this. Even if you trust that Froome not only knows how much he took every day, and when, and is honest about it (he could definitely have an interest not to be) there is going to be a large error or uncertainty in assigning these weights, particularly with the relatively small number available from the Vuelta (twenty or so is not a lot, given that each one would have different conditions associated with it, which would have to be factored in, resulting in more uncertainty). When you run the simulation, to determine the probability that a high dose exceeds the limit, these cumulative uncertainties would probably make it fairly easy to exceed the limit just by manipulating the weights a little. There is much, much more to this than I can say here, but again, unless/until I see what they actually did, not much point in discussing it further.
What Froome’s team was trying to do, in other words, is turn this into a passport case, where a baseline is created based on the rider’s own previous values, then estimate the odds that his values in one questionable sample exceeded certain limits above that baseline. This is a good strategy, because the passport probably catches even fewer dopers than the EPO test does. But there are several complicating factors applying this to salbutamol cases that don’t exist in a passport case.
Obviously, every scientific advisor says his client has been proven innocent. Floyd’s thought he should have gotten off. Do you think Contador’s team (which included Martin) didn’t think they had proven it was meat? If we’re going by what’s reported in the media, it’s also been reported that the decision to drop the case was not made by Rabin, but from higher up. They no doubt realized that even if they won at the Tribunal, the case would have been appealed to CAS, meaning more time and more money. All for maybe a nine month’s suspension, and all the time the case was dragging out, Froome in the Tour was a huge problem.
Did WADA’s own scientific experts think they should have dropped the case? I haven’t heard that they did. This sounds like when the feds initially dropped their case against LA, and all the lawyers who actually worked on the case were appalled.