Re:
Very interesting, thanks for the link. Since 1600 ug/24 hr is permitted, the rider would have to be allowed to have some salbutamol in his urine at the start of the test. If Rabin is serious about duplicating the conditions as they actually occurred, though, Froome would have to document taking some of the substance beginning after testing the previous day's stage, and it would be essentially impossible for him to make the case that he didn't urinate between then and 24 hr later. So this does seem to raise the bar even higher.
Some other interesting points made in the interview:
I note he's vague about the possibility of another substance affecting the excretion rate of salbutamol. If WADA knew about some substance, surely they would be studying it, but AFAIK, they aren't.
Note also that at the end, in response to a question about oral vs. inhaled, he says, "We have no element of certainty." As I thought, there is no approved test for this, because the tests that may exist aren't good enough (i.e., too many false positives and/or false negatives).
I believe he can do it however he wants for CAS, though of course the closer it follows what actually happened on the road, the more convincing it will be.
Here’s a more recent study (2015) in which 1600 ug were inhaled all at once. It was mentioned by a scientist interviewed by VN, as a possible indication that super-threshold levels could occur while staying within the WADA rules. There were 13 subjects, and three protocols were run: rest, exercise and exercise/dehydration (water intake restricted). Urine samples were taken at 1.5, 4 and 6 hr. So a total of 117 samples were taken. Of these, 33 or 28% exhibited uncorrected levels > 1000 ng/ml; when urine was corrected for specific gravity, there were still 23 or 20% of the samples above the threshold.
However, keep in mind, again, that 1600 ug is not permitted in a short period of time. Also, even under these extreme conditions, only 5/117 samples exceeded 2000 ng/ml.
What someone really should test is 800 ug, followed by another 800 ug 12 hr later, then urine tests. That would set the ceiling on what is theoretically possible while following WADA rules. There has been a study, discussed above, in which 800 ug was taken at once, followed by urine tests. Only 1/64 samples exceeded 1000 ng/ml and was still below the 1200 ng/ml decision limit. However, from the two studies by the Elers group, I see that 12 hr after an 800 ug dose, there could be as much as 200-250 ug/nl if the subject doesn't pee. Most of this would be added to the amount excreted by the new 800 ug dose, if urine were collected soon after.
The other study I would like to see is of variability of one individual. Test the individual multiple times, not varying conditions, to see how much the urine levels vary. That would provide a baseline of variability, which would be increased if conditions such as exercise and dehydration varied.
http://sci-hub.la/10.1002/dta.1828
So this would be Froome's strategy:
a) He's already claimed he had three puffs after finishing the stage. If he could demonstrate he had five other puffs late in the stage, so the entire 800 ug dose was taken within two hours of testing, that would maximize his urine level.
b) If he's like one of the outlier subjects in published studies, he might conceivably have a level of 1000 ng/ml at that point
c) Most of the kinetic studies have first analyzed urine after four hours, but other studies show that the concentrations peak sooner, within an hour or so. They probably don't fall off too much, but somewhat. So that 1000 ng/ml level could possibly be pushed up to 1200-13000 ng/ml if the urine were assayed sooner.
d) If he took 800 ug in the previous 12 hr period, this would add some salbutamol to the total, if he were an outlier, maybe as much as 400-500 ng/ml. Now he's not far from 2000 ng/ml. and we still haven't considered dehydration.
e) At this point, though, the question would be raised, why wasn't such a high level ever realized before? Froome would have to establish that he never took more than 2-3 puffs total in any 12 hr period prior to this stage.
A very unlikely scenario, but I think that's what it would take. However, if he were willing to confess accidentally taking more than 800 ug, then it becomes a little more plausible. Not as much as oral dosing, but maybe enough to convince CAS.
hazaran said:I was thinking of this interview with Olivier Rabin, science director at WADA:
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lemonde.fr%2Fcyclisme%2Farticle%2F2017%2F12%2F14%2Faffaire-froome-la-charge-de-la-preuve-revient-a-l-athlete_5229768_1616656.html&edit-text=&act=url
Very interesting, thanks for the link. Since 1600 ug/24 hr is permitted, the rider would have to be allowed to have some salbutamol in his urine at the start of the test. If Rabin is serious about duplicating the conditions as they actually occurred, though, Froome would have to document taking some of the substance beginning after testing the previous day's stage, and it would be essentially impossible for him to make the case that he didn't urinate between then and 24 hr later. So this does seem to raise the bar even higher.
Some other interesting points made in the interview:
Has there been an overdose? It happens, even fairly frequently.
I note he's vague about the possibility of another substance affecting the excretion rate of salbutamol. If WADA knew about some substance, surely they would be studying it, but AFAIK, they aren't.
Note also that at the end, in response to a question about oral vs. inhaled, he says, "We have no element of certainty." As I thought, there is no approved test for this, because the tests that may exist aren't good enough (i.e., too many false positives and/or false negatives).
Not sure how fair that is. I guess you can do one test for WADA and if that doesn't get you off, still have another one for CAS.
I believe he can do it however he wants for CAS, though of course the closer it follows what actually happened on the road, the more convincing it will be.
Here’s a more recent study (2015) in which 1600 ug were inhaled all at once. It was mentioned by a scientist interviewed by VN, as a possible indication that super-threshold levels could occur while staying within the WADA rules. There were 13 subjects, and three protocols were run: rest, exercise and exercise/dehydration (water intake restricted). Urine samples were taken at 1.5, 4 and 6 hr. So a total of 117 samples were taken. Of these, 33 or 28% exhibited uncorrected levels > 1000 ng/ml; when urine was corrected for specific gravity, there were still 23 or 20% of the samples above the threshold.
However, keep in mind, again, that 1600 ug is not permitted in a short period of time. Also, even under these extreme conditions, only 5/117 samples exceeded 2000 ng/ml.
What someone really should test is 800 ug, followed by another 800 ug 12 hr later, then urine tests. That would set the ceiling on what is theoretically possible while following WADA rules. There has been a study, discussed above, in which 800 ug was taken at once, followed by urine tests. Only 1/64 samples exceeded 1000 ng/ml and was still below the 1200 ng/ml decision limit. However, from the two studies by the Elers group, I see that 12 hr after an 800 ug dose, there could be as much as 200-250 ug/nl if the subject doesn't pee. Most of this would be added to the amount excreted by the new 800 ug dose, if urine were collected soon after.
The other study I would like to see is of variability of one individual. Test the individual multiple times, not varying conditions, to see how much the urine levels vary. That would provide a baseline of variability, which would be increased if conditions such as exercise and dehydration varied.
http://sci-hub.la/10.1002/dta.1828
So this would be Froome's strategy:
a) He's already claimed he had three puffs after finishing the stage. If he could demonstrate he had five other puffs late in the stage, so the entire 800 ug dose was taken within two hours of testing, that would maximize his urine level.
b) If he's like one of the outlier subjects in published studies, he might conceivably have a level of 1000 ng/ml at that point
c) Most of the kinetic studies have first analyzed urine after four hours, but other studies show that the concentrations peak sooner, within an hour or so. They probably don't fall off too much, but somewhat. So that 1000 ng/ml level could possibly be pushed up to 1200-13000 ng/ml if the urine were assayed sooner.
d) If he took 800 ug in the previous 12 hr period, this would add some salbutamol to the total, if he were an outlier, maybe as much as 400-500 ng/ml. Now he's not far from 2000 ng/ml. and we still haven't considered dehydration.
e) At this point, though, the question would be raised, why wasn't such a high level ever realized before? Froome would have to establish that he never took more than 2-3 puffs total in any 12 hr period prior to this stage.
A very unlikely scenario, but I think that's what it would take. However, if he were willing to confess accidentally taking more than 800 ug, then it becomes a little more plausible. Not as much as oral dosing, but maybe enough to convince CAS.