Amstel Gold Race: April 21st, 2019

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Who will win the Amstel Gold Race 2019?

  • Alejandro Valverde

    Votes: 4 4.5%
  • Julian Alaphilippe

    Votes: 12 13.5%
  • Mathieu van der Poel

    Votes: 47 52.8%
  • Michael Matthews

    Votes: 2 2.2%
  • Michael Valgren

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Michal Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 4 4.5%
  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 7 7.9%
  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Tim Wellens

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Other

    Votes: 10 11.2%

  • Total voters
    89
Red Rick said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
This is with tailwind correct?

There's no way Alaphilippe and Fuglsang get caught if they keep riding, but Alaphilippe knew he had to be careful or **** up his sprint cause he was super dead and Fuglsang thought he couldn't win otherwise.

Just glad Fuglsang got the podium though. Hope he gets 2nd in Liege after his old buddy Nibali :D
No, after the Bemelerberg it was headwind most of the time. Only the finishing straight was tailwind.

My take is that Alaphilippe was pretty much dead and that if he would have gone full gas into that headwind, he knew there was a big chance that Fuglsang would have outsprinted him. Fuglsang on the other hand had to tire out Ala if he wanted a chance. So both Ala and Fuglsang gambled to win the race and lost. It's nonsense imo to blame (one of) them, they did what they had to do to maximize their chance of winning. It didn't work out, that's bike racing.
 
Flamin said:
Red Rick said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
This is with tailwind correct?

There's no way Alaphilippe and Fuglsang get caught if they keep riding, but Alaphilippe knew he had to be careful or **** up his sprint cause he was super dead and Fuglsang thought he couldn't win otherwise.

Just glad Fuglsang got the podium though. Hope he gets 2nd in Liege after his old buddy Nibali :D
No, after the Bemelerberg it was headwind most of the time. Only the finishing straight was tailwind.

My take is that Alaphilippe was pretty much dead and that if he would have gone full gas into that headwind, he knew there was a big chance that Fuglsang would have outsprinted him. Fuglsang on the other hand had to tire out Ala if he wanted a chance. So both Ala and Fuglsang gambled to win the race and lost. It's nonsense imo to blame (one of) them, they did what they had to do to maximize their chance of winning. It didn't work out, that's bike racing.
+1. This.

As for the time gaps. Having wrong times is part of racing. Just like having referees making bad calls.
 
I have tried to go back over the video of the race to identify some real time gaps. Here is what I found:

1. At about 4.3 km to go, the camera cuts away from Alaphilippe and Fuglsang just before they reach a sign reading "Gasthuis" at the side of the road. Assuming that it would take them about 2 seconds to reach the sign, the gap at that point was 1:07 back to Clarke/Mollema and 1:16 back to the VDP group.

2. At about 4.1 km to go, Alaphilippe and Fuglsang pass a man standing by the side of the road. Kwia and Trentin pass the same man about 45 seconds later.

3. At about 3.2 km, Ala and Fuglsang turn a corner. Kwia and Trentin pass that corner about 39 seconds later. Clarke and Mollema turn the corner about 57 seconds after the leaders. (Schachmann was somewhere in between these groups.) We don't see the VDP group turn the corner, but about 10 seconds later the coverage cuts to a helicopter view that reveals the VDP group is catching Clarke and Mollema. I would therefore estimate that VDP was about 1:00 behind Alaphilippe and Fuglsang with 3 km to go.

4. At about 2 km to go, Ala and Fuglsang pass a man at the side of the road wearing a black t-shirt and gray shorts. Kwia passes the same man 28 seconds later. At this point, Schachmann has almost caught Kwia and Trentin.

5. At about 1.6 km to go, Ala and Fuglsang pass a man on the side of the road wearing a QuickStep jersey. It is hard to tell exactly when Kwia passes him, because you only see it in the distance, but I estimate the gap to be 17 seconds. VDP passes that man about 26 seconds after Ala and Fuglsang.

6. At the flamme rouge, I time the gap between Ala/Fuglsang and Kwia to be about 4 or 5 seconds.

7. At about 900m, there is a left turn. Kwia takes the turn less than 4 seconds later. VDP takes that turn about 7 or 8 seconds after Ala and Fuglsang.

To summarize--just considering Ala/Fuglsang and the VDP group:

- the gap was about 1:16 with 4.3 km to go.
- At 3 km, the gap was about 1:00, meaning they cut 16 seconds off the gap in 1.3 km.
- At 1.6 km, the gap was down to 26 seconds, meaning they gained 34 seconds in 1.4 km.
- By the turn at about 900m to go, the gap was down to about 8 seconds, meaning they gained 18 seconds in 500m.
 
I handclocked the gaps in different spots:

Bottom of the Bemelerberg: Kwiato and Trentin around 30" seconds behind leaders, VdP group 1'20".

3km to go: Kwiato 38" seconds behind, VdP group 1'.

So the GPS was actually very accurate.
 
Re:

SafeBet said:
I handclocked the gaps in different spots:

Bottom of the Bemelerberg: Kwiato and Trentin around 30" seconds behind leaders, VdP group 1'20".

3km to go: Kwiato 38" seconds behind, VdP group 1'.

So the GPS was actually very accurate.
Yes, those are basically the same times I calculated as well.

As for relative speeds, I checked again and estimated that Ala and Fuglsang passed the 3 km to go sign at 2:16:29 on the FloBikes video. Fuglsang crossed the finish line at about 2:21:23 on the video. That gives a total time of 4:54 for 3 km, or an average speed of 36.74 km/h. VDP passes the 3 km sign at 2:17:26 and finishes at 2:21:22, for a total time of 3:56 or an average speed of 45.77 km/h. Both estimates a very close to those in the tweet above.

I don't see VDP near the 2 km or 1 km markers on the video coverage, but you can see Ala/Fuglsang pass both of them, at 2:18:13 and 2:20:12, respectively. That gives the pair of them average speeds for each of the final three kilometres of:

3-2 km: 34.62 km/h
2-1 km: 30.25 km/h
1-0 km: 50.70 km/h

As Winnen indicates above, you can extrapolate from the gap at 900m to estimate that VDP did the final kilometre in about 63 seconds (57.1 km/h). His average speed from kilometres 3 to 1 was therefore about 41.62 km/h.
 
Feb 20, 2019
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Re:

The Chicken said:
https://sporza.be/nl/2019/04/24/lefevere-extra-time-koers-auto-s-en-motoren/
Seems like Lefevere is either scared to say what he really wants to say cause Leo is "his friend" or he's talking a lot but saying nothing. "He shouldn't be there, not that he had any influence on the race but still, he could cause the riders to lose concentration, but careful, Leo's my friend, he probably does it cause he likes to be on screen, but it's his course after all". :lol:
 
Re: Re:

Mavic said:
The Chicken said:
https://sporza.be/nl/2019/04/24/lefevere-extra-time-koers-auto-s-en-motoren/
Seems like Lefevere is either scared to say what he really wants to say cause Leo is "his friend" or he's talking a lot but saying nothing. "He shouldn't be there, not that he had any influence on the race but still, he could cause the riders to lose concentration, but careful, Leo's my friend, he probably does it cause he likes to be on screen, but it's his course after all". :lol:
For Lefevere it's always the world against Quick-Step, his team never benefits from anything. Every other victory is questioned.
 
I just re-watched this. My god did Ala and Fuglsang ever throw this away. They had no right to lose this race. Does anyone remember any other finish's like this where unassailable leads were p!$$ed away?
Not in a race of such magnitude, and not in such dramatic fashion, in my memory. There are things like the Pinot-Bardet standoff on the Tour stage that Cummings won, but that was two guys in front and one guy chasing them from not far back that had all come out of a breakaway contesting a stage, not a major classic with over a minute gap being closed in the last few km. Still the race of the year for me, I was in disbelief watching the live stream.
 
to be fair if you look back at the sprint it's clear Alaphilippe was toast.
My theory is Alaphilippe was keeping a pace were he wouldn't cramp up. He even said afterwards he was pretty much toast. While the VdP group especially was absolutely flying. They were losing much more s/km then the GPS gave. Which is why Fugl was so surprised in the end.
 

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