Anyone know Astana's roster for next year...

[auscyclefan94]

Yes they were on the same team, but Lance was racing for himself, as was AC. As for potential team strategy, I guess attacking first seems like a good idea, but in reality that plays to AC's strength. If you'll notice he normally doesn't like to be launched into space. Look Arcalis and Verbier. Both counter-attacks. The best strategy would be to force him to start the show or hope that he has a deficit going into the mountains and does something impetuous trying to regain time.

As for the TT, until Lance actually beats AC in a team trial, I think it is premature to say he will win by a minute. But for the sake of argument let's assume you are correct--that Lance has the ability to beat AC on a flat TT course by a minute plus. Wouldn't the obvious answer be for AC to look for maximum time gains in the mountains? So the question becomes does AC's advantage in the mountains offset Lance's (or Cadel or any of the other larger motors) advantage in the TT? I know where I come down on that question.

personally i don't see lance on the podium at all. he definetly can't climb with conti and i don't think he will out time trial him. The only chance of LA or retirement shack of winning was having a ttt in there or bruyneel will have to come up with some master plan to beat AC.

 

[richwagmn]

Either way, point is, RadioShack has a much much better tour team than AC for 2010. Sure they are old, but 40 is the new 35 now.

Furthermore, someone mentioned about long term (Publicus I think), and I agree that Lance has more than 1 year left. I think he will be there in 2011 unless he wins 2010. Prob be there in 2012 when he's 40yrs old.

And 28 is the new what?

I'm waiting for someone to construct Contador's loss at the hands of Radio Shack? First, AC has no doubt in his mind (especially after this year) that the ONLY rider he has to worry about on RS in Armstrong. Levi is kidding himself if he thinks LA will give him any shot to win (and it pains me to see LL delude himself). The multiple leader strategy is a farce.

Given that, how does LA ride away from AC on the climbs? Construct a strategy for me.

I also wonder about Caisse helping out AC if Valverde isn't in a place to beat him.

 

[L29205]

And 28 is the new what?

I also wonder about Caisse helping out AC if Valverde isn't in a place to beat him.

While in endurance sports the gap between 40 and 30 is declining, there is still a gap at the level of any Pro level sport. No matter how good a rider is an equivalent rider who is ten years younger will always be more explosive and less likely to incur injuries. So 28 will have a better chance of higher performance than 38.

From Caisse standpoint, I am sure they are concerned that the WADA may get the CONI ban implemented worldwide. Valverde may not be able to show up again.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I think Rich was making the point that 20 years ago, all the top riders were retired by their early 30's, max, reaching their peak at the accepted 28 YO mark.
So, 35 may be the new 40, but 35 YO's should be well past their best, too.

The real question is why, in the past decade or so, riders now manage to extend competitive careers by an extra 5 years?

Is this career lengthening happening in other sports?

 

[craig1985]

I think Rich was making the point that 20 years ago, all the top riders were retired by their early 30's, max, reaching their peak at the accepted 28 YO mark.
So, 35 may be the new 40, but 35 YO's should be well past their best, too.

The real question is why, in the past decade or so, riders now manage to extend competitive careers by an extra 5 years?

Is this career lengthening happening in other sports?

In Soccer/football,, it is not unusual for a goal keeper to play into his late 30's, early 40's. If you look at the AC Milan squad, they have 9 players over the age of 32, and 3 over the age of 36. Their ex-captain Paolo Maldini (who retired at the end of last season), kept playing until he is 40. AC Milan's cross town rivals Inter Milan, their captain Javier Zanetti (of Argentina) is 35, and has played the last 140-odd league matches in a row, plus European and Italian Cup games to throw in for good measure. And at Manchester United, guys like Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, Gary Neville, have all been around since Lance Armstrong was a neo-pro.

In cricket it is normal for guys to go into the mid-30's, and with Twenty20 cricket, guys are playing on longer to make more some $$$$$$$ in the IPL (Indian Premier League).

 

[python]

I think Rich was making the point that 20 years ago, all the top riders were retired by their early 30's, max, reaching their peak at the accepted 28 YO mark.
So, 35 may be the new 40, but 35 YO's should be well past their best, too.

The real question is why, in the past decade or so, riders now manage to extend competitive careers by an extra 5 years?

Is this career lengthening happening in other sports?

in one of his interviews armstrong snapped at a reporters hint of him using peds - i don’t age like ‘them’.

hmmm, what did he mean? and this was said if memory serves way way back when he was still winning and racing.

imo partially riders stay longer in the sport cos they don’t race 140 day a year as was customary during eddy merckx days. few do 80-100 races more like 50-70..

partially it is due to hormonal doping. strange it either kills you (if abused) or makes you younger if used under the right supervision.

 

[burninglegs]

Thanks for the link.
It will be nice when Astana formally announces the team roster,but for the meantime this works for me.

 

[kurtinsc]

I think Rich was making the point that 20 years ago, all the top riders were retired by their early 30's, max, reaching their peak at the accepted 28 YO mark.
So, 35 may be the new 40, but 35 YO's should be well past their best, too.

The real question is why, in the past decade or so, riders now manage to extend competitive careers by an extra 5 years?

Is this career lengthening happening in other sports?

Yes, it is happening in other sports.

Dara Tores in swimming is one example. In swimming, once you hit 30 your career was pretty much done... really 26-28 was the max. Now there have been multiple athletes winning medals at 28 or older... and some even in their 30's.

The olympic champion in the womens Marathon was in her upper 30's as well (a russian).

American football and baseball players seem to be playing into their late 30's and early 40's more often as well.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I think that the doping also makes for more of a "closed shop" at the top. The top guys stay longer because they are the ones who understand the system and know how to work it best for their own benefit. Not only in cycling but in other sports as well.

 

[HL2037]

in one of his interviews armstrong snapped at a reporters hint of him using peds - i don’t age like ‘them’.

hmmm, what did he mean? and this was said if memory serves way way back when he was still winning and racing.

Maybe he thinks he is immortal?

 

[lucybears]

FFS, even if 35 IS the new 40, when was the last over 35 winner of the Tour ?

 

[kurtinsc]

Bartali was 34 in 1948.

I believe he was the oldest champion.

 

[craig1985]

Tied with Henri Pélissier.

 

[karlboss]

Well endurance increases as you age age does strength...so if everyone is forced to ride 77x12s and there is a 9 hour tt included, I'll give him a chance.