LeonG2010 said:
This is an interesting set of expectations - One or two comments.
a. Don't you think that Bradley Wiggins will be an even more improved version of the 2009 edition to merit higher expectations than this?
b. Sanchez may well slip back in the third week.
c. I could be wrong but I feel Basso's best days are over.
While LA states he is better than last year so will all those young greats AC, F & AS who still have room for improvement, especially the Schlecks with ITTs. Also, Frank will not have a recurring pain in his knee as he had for much of last season.
To answer your points:
a) No. Not by much. His team is not as good and he will have to do it alone. Double whamy is they know he's coming. They didn't in 2009. To shorten a long discussion, cause there is a lot to talk about regarding Wiggins, I've been saying on this forum for months that Wiggins won't be much better. He'll suffer like Lance will when the others (Evans, Menchov and Sastre) don't drop the ball and Samu and Valverde actually race. 2009 was far more open than 2010.
b) Samu gets stronger in a 3 week Tour. Not by much but he does. If he is already up there in the first two weeks, I'd be very concerned if he was near me on GC.
c) Ditto. I agree. I though the team would be best served sending him to the Vuelta, but alas, its the Giro and Tour. Liquigas I think are aiming for the Giro and Vuelta, firstly with Pellizotti and then with Nibali or Kreuziger at the Vuelta.
Your last comment I also agree with. Andy was 15, maybe 20 seconds behind Lance in the final ITT at Annecy in 2009. Lance himself dropped 1:45 or so to Contador. Andy improves more than he does. Frank improves over 2008 in 2009 with his ITT, so I see that happening again. But he won't set the road alight with his power. If Nibali improves, he could move up next to Lance and Kloden, because he was near them in the mountains, whilst loosing a little time and also in the final ITT he was 5 seconds back on Andy Schleck. Considering all things equal, if he improves by the same margin as Andy, he'll be equal, or near enough overall to Lance. Not sure what to make of Wiggins and Vandevelde. I think Christian can top 10, somewhere near 8th and Brad can to if he flogs himself. Just too many unknowns with both.
@Publicus. Agree on Sanchez being a better climber than Lance. My list was for climbing ability. ITT. Well he won't be near Lance. If he'd have raced last year, I'd say he'd have been near Wiggins, Cadel and LLS in the 45 seconds to a minute in arrears. This years ITT is flat, but it isn't too long, at only 40km. I have a feeling that the mountains will determine more this year. The ITT may settle 3-5 on GC, but that should be it, which given whom I think will be there, indicates they are fairly even on form. If Lance wants to finish on the podium, he needs to be able to do what Levi can in the ITT. I don't see him improving his terrible form last year by a big enough margin.
@Kurtsinc. Do you realise by saying that Lance climbed better in the Tour than Sanchez did in the Vuelta that you are comparing apples and oranges? If Lance had skipped the Tour and raced the Vuelta, would he have podiumed? I don't think so. 4th at best. You are also subtly suggesting that Lance climbed better than the winner of the Vuelta, Valverde, because Sanchez and Valverde were almost equal in the Vuelta. Heck I'll drag it further and state that you are suggesting both the Schleck's and possibly Kloden (whom all climbed better than Lance in the Tour) could have won the Vuelta. Ridiculous? I think so. Until Lance shows his 2001 form (he won't and cannot because he lost it long ago) then it remains to be seen whether he could match the accelerations and tempo some of the Spaniards can put down when in top form. I'll believe it when I see it. He might outperform one, but not all of them.
BroDeal and Publicus mentioned Tommy D. He can top 25 at the Tour if he gets his diet sorted out. I'm extending a lot of faith to Vaughters there and trusting he wasn't telling whoppers last year concerning Toms dietary problems.