Bernal vs. Pogacar vs. Evenepoel

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I am guessing that he missed about a week of riding (don't know exactly when his injury happened) and was setting records already in May.

Not perfect, but not a big deal also
Oh, it’s by no means a case of having no form at all, but one could assume he didn’t really hit peak shape until week 3, partly due to said injury. That’s when he was setting the race to his hand. However, due to Tignes being cancelled we’ll never know what it would translate to.
 
Oh, it’s by no means a case of having no form at all, but one could assume he didn’t really hit peak shape until week 3. That’s when he was setting the race to his hand. However, due to Tignes being cancelled we’ll never know what it would translate to.
Oh if that stage isn't canceled Bernal still wins unless Thomas does Movistar tactics
 
Looking at this year's Tour de France route with so many explosive climbs and last year's performance, I struggle to put Bernal ahead of Roglic in terms of favorites. And the only reason I don't put Pinot and Pogacar at the same level is because Pinot always has some freak situation happening to him and Pogacar never raced the Tour and his team won't give him much support.
 
Also, for me the only one that has confirmed his status so far is Bernal. What Pogacar and Evenepoel are doing, is impressive, and it's looking very good for sure, but it's still possible for Pogacar to end up being a Valverde type of rider (winning a lot, but not a lot of GT's) and Evenepoel not turning out to be an elite climber or not made for 3 weeks after all... who knows. There is no real indication for thinking that they couldn't turn out to be GT dominators, but on the other hand, still plenty could go wrong or turn out differently.
I agree with this post 100%.
 
Looking at this year's Tour de France route with so many explosive climbs and last year's performance, I struggle to put Bernal ahead of Roglic in terms of favorites.
I find it hard to say who of the 2 is the favourite for me. You make a good point, but on the other hand the amount of TT kms are limited which is more favorable for Bernal compared to Roglic.
 
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It's a far more open route this year for sure, the pure climbers who don't ITT well shouldn't lose as much time as normal, so the likelihood is that it'll be a punchy mountain fight.

It's a shame Remco won't be there with his Giro title.

To my mind there are these three guys and a couple of others who could become part of this elite group. I include Sosa in the 'could become' selection, and judging by the baby Giro when Camilo Ardila literally rode away from his peers at age 20 years and 15 days, he could also become a superstar, ITT permitting on both of those guys. Higuita too, has shown some talent. And I have a feeling about Hirschi, for a non-Colombian element and likely non-GT GC, but we'll wait and see.

Ardila highlights below.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57BzrV0vwJ8

You can watch the stages for the last hour or so on YouTube too. Mightily impressive.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl2pZHC5Dhg&t=2673s


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvXnDKTUq0E
 
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It's a shame Remco won't be there with his Giro title.
You know something we don't? :relaxed:

And I have a feeling about Hirschi, for a non-Colombian element and likely non-GT GC, but we'll wait and see.
He'll be a great and versatile classics rider or stage hunter but i don't think he'll be a GC rider. I'm sure he'll be able to win small 3rd tier GC's, just like Van Avermaet, van Aert, van der Poel etc have won some GC's. But there are quite a few i think might do better in GC's than Hirschi. Like Leknessund, Van Wilder, Arensman... Maybe in a few years we'll know what we can expect from Brenner, Vacek ...
 
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He'll be a great and versatile classics rider or stage hunter but i don't think he'll be a GC rider. I'm sure he'll be able to win small 3rd tier GC's, just like Van Avermaet, van Aert, van der Poel etc have won some GC's. But there are quite a few i think might do better in GC's than Hirschi. Like Leknessund, Van Wilder, Arensman... Maybe in a few years we'll know what we can expect from Brenner, Vacek ...
Couldn't agree more, I guess that's what I was trying to say. I would imagine he could do a Paris-Nice though.
 
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The main difference I see so far is that Evenepoel has been a phenom since he first got on a bike, Bernal apparently has amazing stats bodily. And Pogacar has appeared out of nowhere, going from a fairly decent U23 rider, then making massive strides in his Avenir year and then becoming a world beater immediately. At the same time as Roglic.
Evenepoel was the best 18 year old ever and he was together with Rik Van Steenbergen the best 19 year old ever. We have to wait to see what Remco will do as a 20 year old. Fausto Coppi was also excellent as a 20 year old. Merckx was 20 when he won Milano San Remo.
 
Bernal's Tour win was honestly one of the least convincing ones of the decade.
I strongly disagree. Except for the Alaphillipe thing, which most people here correctly judged as a flash in the pan, he was barely threatened despite not having an optimal build up to the Tour - and being the first South American and only third non-European to win the race AND one of the youngest Tour winners ever.

In terms of this thread I'm completely on the Evenepoel hype train, but I think Bernal's win last year was nothing short of spectacular.
 
I strongly disagree. Except for the Alaphillipe thing, which most people here correctly judged as a flash in the pan, he was barely threatened despite not having an optimal build up to the Tour - and being the first South American and only third non-European to win the race AND one of the youngest Tour winners ever.

In terms of this thread I'm completely on the Evenepoel hype train, but I think Bernal's win last year was nothing short of spectacular.
Conveniently ignoring that Pinot was dropping him for 2 weeks before freak injury hit. The rest of the top 5 was a slightly off peak Thomas, Kruijswijk, Buchman, and Alaphilippe. IMO the weakest top 5 in the GTs last year.

And that's not to say Bernal isn't the favorite for 2020. He is. But if he shows up like 2019 he's probably not gonna win again.
 
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Bernal is gonna have a tough time riding away from everyone when the race isn't at super high altitude. To me, Roglic is the main favorite.
My heart says Pinot has an excellent chance on this route too.
 
Still waiting for arguments why Bernal is this high altitude one trick pony when in almost all races he's done he doesn't do significantly better on high altitude than low altitude.

Bernal thrives on any hard climb >20 minutes like a typical pure climber, which mostly jsut means he's not as great at your 12-15 climbs that are either a murito or are uphill sprints.

Seriously Bernal just peaked in the 3rd week last year. Ineos roflstomped the Iseran and the pure climber won that day. Then the next day it was all waiting for the last km and Bernal got dropped by the hypoxiphiliac that is Alejandro Valverde.

Bernal is perfectly suited to stages like the Grand Colombier. It's hard all day, final climb is over 40 minutes, he won't lose any sleep over it only being at 1500m altitude. Only problem there is potentially Dumoulin dragging Roglic to the top on the 2nd part of the climb.
 
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It's possible, but less likely now with all the data teams have. But some riders get a better cycling education in their teens than others and show themselves earlier, Team politics play a part too.

Froome's a exception. He comes from a country that has never produced a pro cyclist before or since. The equivalent of an ice hockey player coming from Bolivia.

Look at Buchmann who is developing slowly into a GT contender, he wasn't anywhere near the level of those guys with 20/21, and he was very close to Bernal level last TdF. Could be that in 5 years we have a ride ,who nobody heard of yet, aged e.g. 28 (= older than all 3 then) surpassing them all and dominating into his mid 30ies. In cycling nowadays you can peak anywhere between 20 and 35 I feel, maybe even later if you got the drive.
 
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I strongly disagree. Except for the Alaphillipe thing, which most people here correctly judged as a flash in the pan, he was barely threatened despite not having an optimal build up to the Tour - and being the first South American and only third non-European to win the race AND one of the youngest Tour winners ever.

In terms of this thread I'm completely on the Evenepoel hype train, but I think Bernal's win last year was nothing short of spectacular.
In the Belles Filles stage he lost some time. In the TT he wasn't very good. In the pyreenes he wasn't standing out, even losing time to other contenders every stage as well. In the Alps he had one stage he attacked and gained time, other stage he gained was shortend, and he most likely benefitted from it- to me it's more likely he would have lost some time towards the tigne finish as he was the only one of the favorites went all out to that point... It's fair to say he was FAR from dominating that Tour and not winning it in any convincing fashion as we are left with 1 single real stage where he was clearly the best of the contenders.
 
In the Belles Filles stage he lost some time. In the TT he wasn't very good. In the pyreenes he wasn't standing out, even losing time to other contenders every stage as well. In the Alps he had one stage he attacked and gained time, other stage he gained was shortend, and he most likely benefitted from it- to me it's more likely he would have lost some time towards the tigne finish as he was the only one of the favorites went all out to that point... It's fair to say he was FAR from dominating that Tour and not winning it in any convincing fashion as we are left with 1 single real stage where he was clearly the best of the contenders.
I think these are good points. Bernal's winning the TDF at age 22 is a brilliant achievement by itself, but he was not a dominant winner in the fashion of Froome's TDF wins or even Nibali's 2014 win. That doesn't mean Bernal will not continue to improve and become a dominating GC rider, but as this thread notes, there are other great young talents arriving.
 
Perhaps I'm wrong but the point being discussed is if Bernal's TDF win was convincing, not if it was dominant.

And I struggle to understand why it was not a convincing win, according to some. He was a top5 rider for 2 weeks and then clearly the strongest rider during the third week, which everybody knew would decide the final winner. If someone can win the most important GT of the year while only peaking for one week (as some posters are arguing) well that sounds pretty convincing to me.
 
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Perhaps I'm wrong but the point being discussed is if Bernal's TDF win was convincing, not if it was dominant.

And I struggle to understand why it was not a convincing win, according to some. He was a top5 rider for 2 weeks and then clearly the strongest rider during the third week, which everybody knew would decide the final winner. If someone can win the most important GT of the year while only peaking for one week (as some posters are arguing) well that sounds pretty convincing to me.
It would be if it hadn't relied on the best opposition crashing out before or during the race. I also called it one of the least convincing of the decade. The 2010s barely had competitive Tours. It's all derived from the Tour being the most important GT, literally ignoring all context.
 
Bernal's Tour win was honestly one of the least convincing ones of the decade.
Couldn't agree more. That said, he still won the Tour. He's a huge talent.

Cool thread, and I think the questions about these three are really fun to wonder about. Are they really going to battle for the GT's or will someone else emerge? Will Evenepoel really be as good as it appears he will be? To me Pogacar and Bernal have proven their mettle already, but it feels like Evenepoel could be stronger than either one of them.

Great for the sport, and exciting stuff for sure.
 
Couldn't agree more. That said, he still won the Tour. He's a huge talent.

Cool thread, and I think the questions about these three are really fun to wonder about. Are they really going to battle for the GT's or will someone else emerge? Will Evenepoel really be as good as it appears he will be? To me Pogacar and Bernal have proven their mettle already, but it feels like Evenepoel could be stronger than either one of them.

Great for the sport, and exciting stuff for sure.
Scenes when Ineos buys Evenepoel and Pogacar
 
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I remember when Cunego and Valverde just broke the scene around 2003/2004 and public expected them to dominate hilly classics and GTs in the decade to come. It didn't exactly end up that way, Cunego never won a GT again after 2004 a Valverde got only one Vuelta victory in 2008. Cunego had a decent career and Valverde an outstanding one, a lot of which comes from it's longlivety but none of them ever really dominated the sport and we didn't really get any battles btwn them. Also those two guys didn't really improve anymore much despite their young age, Cunego struggled to reach that level of his early year(s) again and Valverde remained(s) consistent. I wouldn't be surprised if some of those young superrides take a similar path.
 
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