Talansky did probably just as well in Dauphine last year. Or at least I remember him coming just behind Contador and Froome on 1 stage, which is arguably better than he did on the main mountain showdown this year when he was dropped and only caught back because of Froome slowing down when Contador refused to work.
Either way I don't think Dauphine really translates to Tour that easily and I don't think I've seen anthing from Talansky that suggests he can match Nibali in a gt or for that matter Valverde who has had the 2nd best season of all the contenders so far.
tradition says Nibali will get a podium like he always does and Valverde will fail to get a podium like he always does, due to some mechanical, but **** tradition for now. On form it should be Valverde 3rd (if not 2nd, depending on how good Froome and Contador will actually be), Nibali 4th and JVDB in his beloved 5th.