Better GT rider in their primes: Evans vs Nibali

[whittashau]

2011 Tour Evans beats all versions of Nibali we have seen thus far.

Evans.

That's not what the numbers say.
http://www.fietsica.be/Tour2014.pdf

Seriously, you really think the 2011 Evans would have won the last tour by 7 or more minutes? That's ridiculous.


I really cannot fathom how people can come to the conclusion that Evans was better at his peak.

 

[Afrank]

Maybe read the original post again?

This is not about domination or stage wins, it's about performance. Do you really think Nibali of 2014 would beat Evans in the 2007 Tour? Or the 2011 Tour?

And how would Evans of 2007 or 2011 fare in the 2014 Tour against Nibali?

That is the question. That Nibali also have won the Giro and the Vuelta doesn't matter. Put Evans in peak condition in the 2010 Vuelta and he would win it easily. And the age thing isn't a relevant issue since this is peak vs peak.

Has Evans done any of the things I detailed in my post that Nibali did this Tour, or even come close to them? No, and I don't believe a Evans in his peak could either.

Evans in his prime would probably be a podium contender this Tour, but I don't think he would have beaten Nibali. And according to whittashau's post and link, he didn't have the number to do so (was thinking of posting that very same link).

 

[Walkman]

That's not what the numbers say.
http://www.fietsica.be/Tour2014.pdf

Seriously, you really think the 2011 Evans would have won the last tour by 7 or more minutes? That's ridiculous.


I really cannot fathom how people can come to the conclusion that Evans was better at his peak.

Judging by how Evans raced the last ITT in 2011 he could have put 2 minutes and 30 seconds into Péraud in the ITT this year.

Add the that the cobbled stage. Péraud lost 3.46 to Nibali and to ask that Evans should repeat that is a stretch. But Evans was great on such stages. He was third on the cobble stage in 2010 and the same year he won the dirt road stage in the Giro. So let's say he comes in with the Sagan group. Thats another 2 and 45 seconds on Péraud.

That's 5 minutes and 15 seconds right there. And now to the mountains. Do you really believe Evans in 2011 form would have a problem with Péraud? Evans was on pair with Andy in 2011. And Andy Schleck was far better than Péraud.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I voted Nibali but it would have been REALLY close.
People forget how strong Evans' opposition was in his prime years!
It's really hard to call.

Nibali won 3 gt's, but one was vs Mosquera, after Anton (with a sizable lead) literally fell out, and it was close vs Mosquera. One was against Uran and yeah, Evans, in a Giro with almost no opposition.. and this years tour, well we all know the story. He was dominant but Peraud and Pinot, I believe they are not nearly as strong as the Schlecks in 2011.

So really, it's hard to say. I give the edge to Nibali because he seems more at ease uphill then the fighting style of Evans. But Evans in his peak was very hard to wear down...

 

[BlurryVII]

Has Evans done any of the things I detailed in my post that Nibali did this Tour, or even come close to them? No, and I don't believe a Evans in his peak could either.

Evans in his prime would probably be a podium contender this Tour, but I don't think he would have beaten Nibali. And according to whittashau's post and link, he didn't have the number to do so (was thinking of posting that very same link).

For sure Evans wouldn't win by 7 + minutes even at his peak because he isn't an attacking rider, he just follows the wheels most of the time . But that doesn't mean he isn't better than Nibali.
2007 Evans was a ROCK, he wouldn't crush Pinot or Péraud in impressive fashion but Nibali would have a REALLY hard time dropping him. You can add to this that Evans is an awesome rider under extreme conditions (cf Giro 2010) + he rode cobbles great in the 2010 Tour AND he is a much better TT'er than Nibali at his best form.
So in other words, if we had a showdown 2007 Evans vs Nibali 2014 in this years Tour with this route, I'd put my money on Evans .

The argument that Nibali won all 3 GTs is just ridiculous, he won them all against weak competition when Evans had to deal with mountain sprinters like AC, Rassmussen or Andy Schleck.

 

[Rollthedice]

This is getting ridiculous. Is this another thread in which some who obviously have a problem with Nibali winning the Tour, or any GT for that matter, keep preaching that he had no competition, he was lucky, he would have been defeated soundly by anybody who wasn't in the race or crashed out. This time, of all people, it's Evans who, of course faced tougher competition and obviously is a better GT rider than Nibali.

 

[BlurryVII]

This is getting ridiculous. Is this another thread in which some who obviously have a problem with Nibali winning the Tour, or any GT for that matter, keep preaching that he had no competition, he was lucky, he would have been defeated soundly by anybody who wasn't in the race or crashed out. This time, of all people, it's Evans who, of course faced tougher competition and obviously is a better GT rider than Nibali.

Nibs won the Tour, that's a fact. But do you have arguments to counter the bolded part? YES he is lucky and YES he had no competition, that's another fact.

 

[Walkman]

Has Evans done any of the things I detailed in my post that Nibali did this Tour, or even come close to them? No, and I don't believe a Evans in his peak could either.

Evans in his prime would probably be a podium contender this Tour, but I don't think he would have beaten Nibali. And according to whittashau's post and link, he didn't have the number to do so (was thinking of posting that very same link).

It also states that Nibali had the numbers to beat Armstrong in 1999 and 2002 and be equal to Armstrong in 2000 and 2003. And I am not sure if I can believe that.

Nibali to beat Armstrong on Sestrière?

 

[ExtraSpoke]

This is getting ridiculous. Is this another thread in which some who obviously have a problem with Nibali winning the Tour, or any GT for that matter, keep preaching that he had no competition, he was lucky, he would have been defeated soundly by anybody who wasn't in the race or crashed out. This time, of all people, it's Evans who, of course faced tougher competition and obviously is a better GT rider than Nibali.

+1

I was not going to vote, finding this poll ridiculous. But, out of curiosity, I read through this thread and arrived to a mental condition where I just had to vote for VN.

 

[BlurryVII]

It also states that Nibali had the numbers to beat Armstrong in 1999 and 2002 and be equal to Armstrong in 2000 and 2003. And I am not sure if I can believe that.

Nibali to beat Armstrong on Sestrière?

When Nibali did beat Pinot by 15 seconds on Planche, stayed with Péraud on Risoul and Chamousse.

The only decent performance was Hautacam, and it's still 1 min 03 slower than Armstrong's time in 2000. People these days.

 

[Rollthedice]

Nibs won the Tour, that's a fact. But do you have arguments to counter the bolded part? YES he is lucky and YES he had no competition, that's another fact.

First rule to win a GT: Show up
Second rule: Finish the tour.
Third rule: Be the strongest.

Luck is part of the game. Always.

 

[pigoonse]

+1

I was not going to vote, finding this poll ridiculous. But, out of curiosity, I read through this thread and arrived to a mental condition where I just had to vote for VN.

+1

Same here . For the reasons Rollthedice already mentioned.

 

[scholar]

You can better make a thread on who is the best overall rider.

No you can't. The answer to that one is just as obviously Evans as the answer to this one is Nibali.

 

[Walkman]

No you can't. The answer to that one is just as obviously Evans as the answer to this one is Nibali.

Then bring us some arguments. Did you even watched the 2007 Tour? Or the 2011?

How is the obvious answer Nibali? Please enlighten us.

 

[Dr. Juice]

I watched the Tour every year when they competed. Evans in his prime was not among the best climbers, but not far off either. He was quite good but not great. Especially good on short climbs or climbs which did not make differences, where he could use his sprinting ability.
But he suffered in the high mountains where he was between 3rd and 6th strongest when in top form, depending on competition.
But he was the strongest TTist of all GC contenders and (Annecy 2009 aside) not much worse than Contador and always Top 3 or Top 5 in the TTs.

In 2007 he was clearly weaker than Contador , Leipheimer and Rasmussen. In 2010 he was not as strong as Basso. In 2011 he faced a tired and crash-hurt Contador and profited from tactic games in the first 2-3 mountain stages. Nevertheless he was very good and 1 day even the strongest in a mountain stage. But I think the waiting games hurt Andy. It was strange to see them all play defensively when they should attack Evans from the first mountain finish.
But in the end, Evans pulled it off, had the form of his life and made use of the circumstances.

Only a 2011 Evans in a Leblanc or 2012 TdF would or could beat a Giro '13 or TdF 2014 Nibali. In a Giro he would never win against a top form Nibali. Too many MTF and too little TT km.
He could have beaten a 2013 Vuelta Nibali, but this poll is about their respective best form.
This year he would have lost on the cobbles, maybe stayed with him in PDBF, and lost 30-50 sec in the longer ascents. Then gained back 40 seconds in the TT. Assuming Evans was in 2011 form.

I consider Evans on par with the best Sastre in a GT. Slightly weaker in climbing but stronger in the TTs. Apart from 2008 where Sastre had extra power in yellow and Evans was slightly behind his best form. 2011 Evans vs 2008 TdF Sastre is a very tough choice. Maybe Evans wins by 20 seconds.

 

[Red Rick]

Froome vs Evans might be poll worthy if you look at palmares

 

[Red Rick]

You can't discuss 2007 on the road section. If we'll go ahead and take this to the clinic, where most threads about peak performances should en up imo, I'll go ahead and say that evans was probably on rocket super*******

 

[Red Rick]

In 2011 he faced a tired and crash-hurt Contador and profited from tactic games in the first 2-3 mountain stages. Nevertheless he was very good and 1 day even the strongest in a mountain stage. But I think the waiting games hurt Andy. It was strange to see them all play defensively when they should attack Evans from the first mountain finish.
But in the end, Evans pulled it off, had the form of his life and made use of the circumstances.

You mean the day he lost 2 minutes to Andy Schleck or the day he got dropped like by Schleck and Contador on the first climb of the day and then got dropped again by Contador on the final climb?

 

[Archibald]

This can be sorted very easily - anyone with PCM 2011 and 2014 and db editing should be able to do it

 

[karlboss]

Up until giro 2013 obviously Evans, after 50/50, after Tour 2014 obviously Nibali. I'd say about even on cobbles, Slight nod to Evans in the TT and a huge advantage to Nibali in the mountains. On the 2014 course, I'd say Nibali by 4-5 minutes over Evans.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

2. Where's the Vino option, CN forum polls 101, there's always a Vino option

I just really really don't get the love for the Vino option bar the cynicism torwarts cycling it should imply but which ultimatly would make it very sad indeed.

 

[IndianCyclist]

That's not what the numbers say.
http://www.fietsica.be/Tour2014.pdf

Seriously, you really think the 2011 Evans would have won the last tour by 7 or more minutes? That's ridiculous.


I really cannot fathom how people can come to the conclusion that Evans was better at his peak.

Evans would not have won any GT by more than 2 mins whatever the opposition. His mentality and riding style is totally against it

 

[Walkman]

Up until giro 2013 obviously Evans, after 50/50, after Tour 2014 obviously Nibali. I'd say about even on cobbles, Slight nod to Evans in the TT and a huge advantage to Nibali in the mountains. On the 2014 course, I'd say Nibali by 4-5 minutes over Evans.

…

Maybe read the original post again?

Jesus, how hard can it be?!

 

[karlboss]

Lol "After 2014 obviously Nibali" I guess the extra words made it tough to spot.

 

[The Hitch]

Judging by how Evans raced the last ITT in 2011 he could have put 2 minutes and 30 seconds into Péraud in the ITT this year.

Add the that the cobbled stage. Péraud lost 3.46 to Nibali and to ask that Evans should repeat that is a stretch. But Evans was great on such stages. He was third on the cobble stage in 2010 and the same year he won the dirt road stage in the Giro. So let's say he comes in with the Sagan group. Thats another 2 and 45 seconds on Péraud.

That's 5 minutes and 15 seconds right there. And now to the mountains. Do you really believe Evans in 2011 form would have a problem with Péraud? Evans was on pair with Andy in 2011. And Andy Schleck was far better than Péraud.

While I can sympathize with the pov that a mid 2000's Evans may have been as good as 2014 Nibali the above is some shockingly appaling logic. You arbitrarily award Evans time gaps over 2014 Peraud based on selected often unrelated data from various years and then proudly boast that you have met the required time gap. 3 minutes on Peraud in the cobbles because of the 2010 stage. Please. It doesn't take a cycling expert to see that tdf cobble stages are not direct shootouts of who is the best cobbled rider. If they were Andy schleck wouldn't have gained time on everyone in 2010, chavanel wouldn't have lost 3 minutes. Canc wouldn't have lost to Nibali this year, etc. Yet you guarantee that Evans would get through the stage with no crashes, no punctures, no difficulty, excelling at everything and matching cobble.monument favourites. Please.

And what about stages where Evans loses heavy time. Hasn't that happened to him in like 80% of gts he's attempted.