Better GT rider in their primes: Evans vs Nibali

[The Hitch]

Up until giro 2013 obviously Evans, after 50/50, after Tour 2014 obviously Nibali. I'd say about even on cobbles, Slight nod to Evans in the TT and a huge advantage to Nibali in the mountains. On the 2014 course, I'd say Nibali by 4-5 minutes over Evans.

Even on cobbles? I think that's awfully generous. One followed canc in a group that Andy schleck had no trouble holding onto.

The.other flat out dropped Sagan, canc etc on a Harder more wildly raced stage to get massive time gaps and where he kept attacking and pulling himself. On that limited evidence Nibali is a 77 at cobbles on pcm and Evans together with 2010 Andy are like 69

…

Maybe read the original post again?

Jesus, how hard can it be?!

What was wrong with his post

Other than his conclusion doesn't match your own?

 

[Dr. Juice]

You mean the day he lost 2 minutes to Andy Schleck or the day he got dropped like by Schleck and Contador on the first climb of the day and then got dropped again by Contador on the final climb?

I went into confusion. He wasn't even the strongest in one particular stage. I remember how unfair I thought his victory over Andy Schleck was. Of course, if Contador did not have the crashes which hampered his recovery from the Giro ( Giro riders always have to ride themselves into form in the Tour), having the legs of the last MT stage and the TT a little earlier, he would have went with Andy in the Galibier stage and they would have killed Cadel.

I felt it had to be Schleck's Tour. Cadel in his prime was annoying and lucky
to win his GT. Regular podium contender but never "the man", not even in the TTs. At least with Indurain or Ullrich you know they would crush everybody and it was entertaining to see how the climbers would gain time back. Always being "somewhat there" and "somehow winning" annoys me.

Combined with his stupid tactics to inexplicably put his team in front ( Tirreno '13 St. Elpidio ) you just wish he won't win. And I even consider him a nice, sociable person.

 

[karlboss]

Even on cobbles? I think that's awfully generous. One followed canc in a group that Andy schleck had no trouble holding onto.

The.other flat out dropped Sagan, canc etc on a Harder more wildly raced stage to get massive time gaps and where he kept attacking and pulling himself. On that limited evidence Nibali is a 77 at cobbles on pcm and Evans together with 2010 Andy are like 69

We are talking about hypothetical best form versus best form. Evans best form wasn't 2010 TDF, he'd just come off a tough Giro. He was a world cup champion mountain biker, managed wet gravel roads well enough to Montalcino and keeps to the front and out of trouble. The one time he hit cobbles he was unflappable and didn't ever have to attack he was following 2010 Cancellara who isn't the same as 2014 Cancellara. Gaps did open, they just opened differently, but from first to 20th, about the same gaps. Also noting that Evans tends to carry a little more weight and at his best was the better flat TTer.

So Evans at his best Nibali at his best I can't see Nibali taking time on Evans on cobbles. Even if he is a little better.

Generous...perhaps

 

[Franklin]

Amusing that one of the most aggressive and tactically astute TdF wins (2011) is being downplayed.

I also think it's amusing that Cadel is being protrayed as being weaker than Schleck in the 18th and 19th stage.

Andy got a big lead going from far out and being towed by Maxime Montfort at the flats. Cadel didn't do anything as he knew he was isolated and had to deal with Frank Schleck, Sanchez and Contador. The gap grew to 4 minutes.

Then when Cadel went in the contra-attack he demolished Sanchez and Contador, but also took back two minutes on Schleck. And to be very clear: where Andy had Maxime(and Frank as watchdog), Cadel was totally isolated.

Saying Cadel was weaker than Andy that day is a big stretch considering that as soon as they both had to go alone Cadel went faster than Andy.

And then the next stage, where Cadel was dropped. The moment he lost contact was a mechanical issue. The gap with Andy was closed quite easily. that Cadel didn't care about AC who was 3 minutes back seems logical considering Frank and Andy had to carry the weight of that stage holding the yellow jersey.


All in all Cadel kept things well under control, not by sucking wheels, but by doing his own work. The Schlecks were incapable of taking time on the climbs. Saying Cadel was weaker is very questionable indeed.

 

[cineteq]

NIbali's prime is already better than Evans' methinks. Btw, Nibali might not be in his prime yet. Tactically, Evans might have the edge. Cadel's 2011 TdF victory was a masterpiece of tactical racing.

 

[Franklin]

Oh and though I rank Cadel's victory in 2011 quite high, Nibali is a much more accomplished GT rider. There's no arguing with a triple crown.

 

[Red Rick]

Tactics is when you have different courses of action and you choose the right one. Evans didn't have tactics as he had only one course of action. Wheelsuck to no end

 

[cineteq]

It's amusing some posters based their opinions on pure hate. There should be a sub-forum just for them.

 

[Miburo]

It's amusing some posters based their opinions on pure hate. There should be a sub-forum just for them.

I don't think it's hate, some just really like a rider to the point they defy logic.

Aren't you the same?

 

[cineteq]

I don't think it's hate, some just really like a rider to the point they defy logic.

Fanboyism to the max!

Aren't you the same?

Short answer => NO

 

[Franklin]

Tactics is when you have different courses of action and you choose the right one. Evans didn't have tactics as he had only one course of action. Wheelsuck to no end

Yes, agreed man! I mean, during stage 18 it were fairies that took back those two minutes on Andy.

Oh wait. No it was Cadel who singlehandedly took back that time and demolished Samuel and Alberto at stage 18.

Dang, reality and facts blowing up a nice fiction again

 

[Walkman]

Tactics is when you have different courses of action and you choose the right one. Evans didn't have tactics as he had only one course of action. Wheelsuck to no end

Did you even watch the 2011 Tour?

Evans was all over the place. He was top-6 in 10 stages including the TTT.
Here are the results:

Stage 1: 2
Stage 2: 2 (TTT)
Stage 4: 1
Stage 8: 3
Stage 9: 6
Stage 12: 5
Stage 14: 4
Stage 18: 3
Stage 19: 4
Stage 20: 2

The wheelsuck part of our argument is just pathetic and simply not true.

 

[Red Rick]

Did you even watch the 2011 Tour?

Evans was all over the place. He was top-6 in 10 stages including the TTT.
Here are the results:

Stage 1: 2
Stage 2: 2 (TTT)
Stage 4: 1
Stage 8: 3
Stage 9: 6
Stage 12: 5
Stage 14: 4
Stage 18: 3
Stage 19: 4
Stage 20: 2

The wheelsuck part of our argument is just pathetic and simply not true.

There is exactly one stage in there where he took responsibility himself on a mountain. I didn't say he didn't finish high, I said his only in mountain stages was to follow. He deviated only once from this in his entire GT career, and it won him a GT. Stages 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14 and 19 he only followed wheels and sprinted for the line. TT's don't have don't have tactics. The only other attacks he has ever done on a mountain stage in a GT are some half-assed attacks in the penultimate Giro 2010 stage. He usually does great in hilly and classic type stages, but usually not by attacking himself.

I don't deny I dislike Evans, but I was only exaggerating a bit to make a point.

 

[Walkman]

While I can sympathize with the pov that a mid 2000's Evans may have been as good as 2014 Nibali the above is some shockingly appaling logic. You arbitrarily award Evans time gaps over 2014 Peraud based on selected often unrelated data from various years and then proudly boast that you have met the required time gap. 3 minutes on Peraud in the cobbles because of the 2010 stage. Please. It doesn't take a cycling expert to see that tdf cobble stages are not direct shootouts of who is the best cobbled rider.

Of course it's not an exact science but it's hardly beyond reason to think Evans would put some hefty time into Peraud on a cobbled stage. Evans was and still is a great bike rider. He handles tough conditions better than most other riders and the 2010 cobbles stage was one example of that. The dirt road stage in the Giro the same year another example. Add to that that he is very good at positioning himself in the peloton. As evidence, said cobbled stage, this years Giro and also stage 1 of the 2011 Tour. It wouldn't be far fetched to see Evans coming in with Sagan and Cancellara on such a stage in the Tour.

And if you go back and watch the 2010 stage, you will see that Evans was one of the guys doing the pace making in the lead group.

Anything can happen, Evans could have crashed, punctured and so on but out of a hundred races on a cobbled stage, Evans is going to beat Peraud the most of the times.

If they were Andy schleck wouldn't have gained time on everyone in 2010.

Of course not, but don't try and downplay Andy's performance in 2010. He did a good job of hanging on. He didn't hit the front like Cadel did and frankly your argument is a bit off here. Andy was helped by Cancellara who had one job during that stage, to lead Andy across the cobbles. Cadel had no former Paris-Roubaix winner pacing him.

And what about stages where Evans loses heavy time. Hasn't that happened to him in like 80% of gts he's attempted.

This is peak vs peak. Evans had no bad days in 2011. 2007 you could argue that he had, but then he was up against an all out (program wise) Chicken and the Discovery team doping program. Hard not to have bad days during those conditions.

My post was not meant to be an exact statement. I just responded to the claim that Evans never would beat Peraud with 7 minutes. Just look at 2011 where Cadel beat Peraud with over 10 minutes.

 

[Walkman]

There is exactly one stage in there where he took responsibility himself on a mountain. I didn't say he didn't finish high, I said his only in mountain stages was to follow. He deviated only once from this in his entire GT career, and it won him a GT. Stages 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14 and 19 he only followed wheels and sprinted for the line. TT's don't have don't have tactics. The only other attacks he has ever done on a mountain stage in a GT are some half-assed attacks in the penultimate Giro 2010 stage. He usually does great in hilly and classic type stages, but usually not by attacking himself.

I don't deny I dislike Evans, but I was only exaggerating a bit to make a point.

Watch stage 18 again please. Then watch stage 1 and 4 also. Your arguments are not valid.

 

[Walkman]

What was wrong with his post

Other than his conclusion doesn't match your own?

The question is peak vs peak, hence the line:

Up until giro 2013 obviously Evans, after 50/50, after Tour 2014 obviously Nibali.

Makes no sense. I don't care who was the best in 2009 or who is the best now, those are no brainers. I care about peak performance.

Slight nod to Evans in the TT

Slight nod when both are at their respective peak? Please show me a time trial with a profile like this:

Where Niabli has matched Tony Martin?

Evans in 2011 form would probably put between 1.30-2.00 minutes in Nibali in 2014 form.

 

[roundabout]

To be honest I have certain doubts that any version of Evans would have matched Martin on the 2014 TT course.

 

[Red Rick]

Watch stage 18 again please. Then watch stage 1 and 4 also. Your arguments are not valid.

Stages 1 and 4 are uphill sprints. The fact that he sprints for the line doesn't mean he's not a wheelsucker. Stage 18 is Evans' finest moment, great ride uphill, good tactical decision. Still it is one of two times in 10+ GT's he showed initiative on a mountain stage.

I don't dislike him because of bad tactics, I dislike him because of boring and predictable tactics, and I think always doing the same thing barely is tactics at all.

 

[Red Rick]

Evans in 2011 form would probably put between 1.30-2.00 minutes in Nibali in 2014 form.

I think you're being very unreasonable

 

[The Hitch]

We are talking about hypothetical best form versus best form. Evans best form wasn't 2010 TDF, he'd just come off a tough Giro. He was a world cup champion mountain biker, managed wet gravel roads well enough to Montalcino and keeps to the front and out of trouble. The one time he hit cobbles he was unflappable and didn't ever have to attack he was following 2010 Cancellara who isn't the same as 2014 Cancellara. Gaps did open, they just opened differently, but from first to 20th, about the same gaps. Also noting that Evans tends to carry a little more weight and at his best was the better flat TTer.

So Evans at his best Nibali at his best I can't see Nibali taking time on Evans on cobbles. Even if he is a little better.

Generous...perhaps

Imo one if the riders has proven he can ride on cobbles tremendously and the other one has not then the former is better. We can make assumoions that if some things or some other things had or hadn't gone his way then maybe Evans would have done as well on cobbles as Nibali but they are a) unproven and b) a stretch.

Nibali has to have the edge on cobbles. He actually showed it.

 

[The Hitch]

Amusing that one of the most aggressive and tactically astute TdF wins (2011) is being downplayed.

I also think it's amusing that Cadel is being protrayed as being weaker than Schleck in the 18th and 19th stage.

Andy got a big lead going from far out and being towed by Maxime Montfort at the flats. Cadel didn't do anything as he knew he was isolated and had to deal with Frank Schleck, Sanchez and Contador. The gap grew to 4 minutes.

Then when Cadel went in the contra-attack he demolished Sanchez and Contador, but also took back two minutes on Schleck. And to be very clear: where Andy had Maxime(and Frank as watchdog), Cadel was totally isolated.

Saying Cadel was weaker than Andy that day is a big stretch considering that as soon as they both had to go alone Cadel went faster than Andy.

.

Wtf


Taking time on someone after they spent 2 hrs in a break while you sat jn a group is a sign of being stronger? By your logic cancellara was not the strongest rider in 2010 Paris roubaix because he lost time in the final kilometers

And then the next stage, where Cadel was dropped. The moment he lost contact was a mechanical issue. The gap with Andy was closed quite easily. that Cadel didn't care about AC who was 3 minutes back seems logical considering Frank and Andy had to carry the weight of that stage holding the yellow jersey.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Cadel didn't close any gap to Andy. He dropped back to the peloton and schleck dropped back later.

 

[The Hitch]

Oh and though I rank Cadel's victory in 2011 quite high, Nibali is a much more accomplished GT rider. There's no arguing with a triple crown.

Nibali hasn't won the triple crown. Not yet anyway.

 

[The Hitch]

Yes, agreed man! I mean, during stage 18 it were fairies that took back those two minutes on Andy.

Oh wait. No it was Cadel who singlehandedly took back that time and demolished Samuel and Alberto at stage 18.

Dang, reality and facts blowing up a nice fiction again

Saying he demolished sami and contador is one way to paint Evans performance on galibier. Another is to say he put only a few seconds into an injured Ivan basso, damniano cunego, tommy voeckler.

Also Sanchez had been on the attack in 4 of the previous 6 stages (and hes not even a gt winner nor did he ever actually look like he would win one) and contador had just won the most brutal giro in recent history.

 

[roundabout]

I have no idea what you are talking about. Cadel didn't close any gap to Andy. He dropped back to the peloton and schleck dropped back later.

He did in the last few km of the Galibier and the downhill

 

[Coat-O]

Valverde is getting old. And yet, Nibali "only" beat him with 9.40. In 2007 he was 11.14 after Evans.

Let's face it. Nibali dominated in the absence of competition. Froome and Contador crashed out, Quintana didn't enter and J-rod was still suffering form the crash during the Giro (i.e couldn't prepare accordingly).

Only four riders of the top ten (excluding Nibali himself); Valverde, Zubeldia, Mollema and van Garderen has been top-5 in another GT. Of those four, both Valverde and Zubeldia have both peaked a long time ago.



This isn't about who impressed you the most, it is about who was the best GT-rider during their respective peaks.

Valverde is better than ever? 2014 is going to be his best season.

His Tour result this year is his best ever. He has never been good at long gradual climbs for more than a week. More of an all-rounder than a Grand Tour rider. The only GT which is tailored to him is the Vuelta.

He is an upgraded version of Kwiatkowski, not a guy who can win the Tour.