Better GT rider in their primes: Evans vs Nibali

[classicomano]

What a completely random comparison. Whats the point?

 

[hfer07]

To see what people thinK obviously.

How can this thread make you confused?

FOA, the comparison seems odd, because Evans belongs to a different generation & currently he's declining, whereas Nibali is uprising with 5 more years to achieve many more titles.

As far as "prime shape" - If you examine carefully Evans's career, whose early results are quite disappointing & yet most consistent as far as GT performance, his "real peak" can only be viewed only after he won the WR title & his move to BMC, which was at his 32 years, and is when he really achieved his great titles: Tour, monuments, week long races, etc. Having stated that- FOA, Nibali is not even there yet so how can we make a fair statement of who's better between them?

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

FOA, the comparison seems odd, because Evans belongs to a different generation & currently he's declining, whereas Nibali is uprising with 5 more years to achieve many more titles.

As far as "prime shape" - If you examine carefully Evans's career, whose early results are quite disappointing & yet most consistent as far as GT performance, his "real peak" can only be viewed only after he won the WR title & his move to BMC, which was at his 32 years, and is when he really achieved his great titles: Tour, monuments, week long races, etc. Having stated that- FOA, Nibali is not even there yet so how can we make a fair statement of who's better between them?

Nibbles don't need "to be there yet", cause he is allready twice the gt rider Evans has ever been

 

[richo36]

This has to be one of the funniest threads I have read for awhile. so much crap being said by everyone.

Ok to start of with I am cadel fanboy but nibali is one of my favourites so im not super biased either way.

Honestly the answer is nibali But I feel depending on the course it would be close. like very close. Say for instance, as we all are comparing to this year.

I would think it save to say the probability that cadel finishes in the first group on the cobbled stage is fairly high. I'm not saying he would of gained time on the cobbles, all I am saying is I think he would of finished with nibali. I don't think this is to far fetched. Cadel was a world champion mountain biker, he came 3rd in 2010 cobbled stage. he won the dirt stage in the giro that year. to argue cadel cant handle this type of stage is just crazy. Also it is first week of a tour. Im going to throw this out there, cadel is one of the best first week riders in a gt. so im going to say with a high probability that he would of finished with nibali.

also cadel did the same thing nibali did winning those couple seconds on an uphill sprint.

Mountains, as much as cadel was strong I don't think he would of kept up with nibali on the mountains. I was on the haticam 3km from the finish and when nibali rode past he looked as if he was on a training ride. no competition or not the guy was in top form and would of competed with the best climbers in the world. however cadel would of only had to limit loses. on 2011 or 2007 form. he would of been the 2nd best climber in the race, well third, but 2nd best out of gt contenders. I feel this is the big if about this whole argument. it is how much he would of lost.

TT evans would win. 2011 form he kept up with martin. but again it depends on what I said above. if cadel limited his loses he might of gained enough back in the tt. It would of been 2011 all over again with nibali carry the yellow jersey into the tt and having to hold off a charging evans.

still I think the route was to mountainous and nibali would of won.


2012 tour, I would lean towards evans winning. Any giro nibali would win. Overall the less mountains the more chance cadel has.

 

[hfer07]

Nibbles don't need "to be there yet", cause he is allready twice the gt rider Evans has ever been

I know - that's why I believe this thread is absurd

 

[ExtraSpoke]

2012 tour, I would lean towards evans winning.

wtf?

Nibali was there, tried every trick he had to create an opportunity where none existed, offered us the only exciting moments in that tour, and finaly was 3rd behind the skyborgs.

Evans was also there, defending TdF champion, so by definition in his prime, smiled to the cameras and was 7th, 9:30 down on Nibali.

So, wtf?

 

[Dr. Juice]

wtf?

Nibali was there, tried every trick he had to create an opportunity where none existed, offered us the only exciting moments in that tour, and finaly was 3rd behind the skyborgs.

Evans was also there, defending TdF champion, so by definition in his prime, smiled to the cameras and was 7th, 9:30 down on Nibali.

So, wtf?

He probably meant 2011 Evans on the 2012 route. Which is what I assumed would be the only possibility (together with Leblanc's routes) for prime Evans to beat a prime Nibali.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Even as an Aussie, the answer has to be Nibali. Especially after the recent TDF.

He is the better all around rider too. Not by a massive amount, but yeah, the world road race champion is way overrated. I'd give greater kudos to the world time trial champion. You know the best rider won. Often a lot of luck comes into the road race; same as at the Olympics.

Some of the arguments for Cadel (unless you also include his mountain biking, but I think that's a different discussion altogether) are drawing quite the long bow. It would be almost like me arguing for Kloden's case over Ullrich because he won Paris-Nice...

Nibali could end up being the best all around rider of his era. After all, he is decent in one day races, whilst Contador is non-existent. But Cancellara would also be in the mix with all the cobbles monuments, WTT championships, GT stages plus that Tour of Swiss victory.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Nibbles don't need "to be there yet", cause he is allready twice the gt rider Evans has ever been

This is a totally ridiculous statement. Nibali might have been better at this years Tour than any of Evans performances but to say it was twice as good is just wrong. Someone who is half the GT rider Nibali was at this years tour never gets within hours of winning a GT.

Evans was one of the best GT riders for quite a few years and you need to show him respect. Insulting him in such a way is totally uncalled for and totally unnecessarily. Make your points without insulting people.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

This is a totally ridiculous statement. Nibali might have been better at this years Tour than any of Evans performances but to say it was twice as good is just wrong. Someone who is half the GT rider Nibali was at this years tour never gets within hours of winning a GT.

Evans was one of the best GT riders for quite a few years and you need to show him respect. Insulting him in such a way is totally uncalled for and totally unnecessarily. Make your points without insulting people.

to being twice the gt rider. Doesn't mean that he actually rides with twice the amount watts as Evans. It's more like a figure of speech that takes into account placements in gts combined with how dominant he was. Last years giro and this years tour are in my opinion lightyears ahead of Evans tour win in 11. add to that a "lucky" Vuelta and his palamares are >>>>>> over Evans + the dominant way he won 2 of them also puts him >>>> over Evans. I will say though, that if Evasn was in his 11 form, and we got a tour with 150km ITT and 1 mountainstage, he might have a shot again Nibbles.
So fine. Nibbles are lightyears ahead of Evans, but he isnt "twice" the rider.
Happy?

 

[darwin553]

The poll is skewed because Nibali is in his prime and Evans currently isn't. I personally thought that Nibali would have been owned by Contador and Froome. I don't rate him as a good as a GC ride as Evans or some others as he has won many of his races due to competitors being injured or off form riders.

Very true.

You mean long after contador and schleck realized their break wasn't going anywhere and after he had spent an hour resting in the peloton?

And it wasn't just Evans

The stage profile looked like this:

Evans got a mechanical with 87 km to go, i.e. before the top of Col du Télégraphe. Then got back in the pack and BMC started chasing with Liquigas. And this is the thing. I don't know how much or even if you ride, but you don't rest while going uphill. There is literally no drafting and the wind resistance is significantly reduced. And going downhill as fast as you can, which the Evans group did, is no resting either.

And if you watched the stage, you would know, that Evans was leading the chase. Take a look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XpAizXzkTDI#t=5682

Resting in the peloton my ***. How about you starting to watch the races you comment on?

 

[Luigi_Max]

to being twice the gt rider. Doesn't mean that he actually rides with twice the amount watts as Evans. It's more like a figure of speech that takes into account placements in gts combined with how dominant he was. Last years giro and this years tour are in my opinion lightyears ahead of Evans tour win in 11. add to that a "lucky" Vuelta and his palamares are >>>>>> over Evans + the dominant way he won 2 of them also puts him >>>> over Evans. I will say though, that if Evasn was in his 11 form, and we got a tour with 150km ITT and 1 mountainstage, he might have a shot again Nibbles.
So fine. Nibbles are lightyears ahead of Evans, but he isnt "twice" the rider.
Happy?

Nibali is not light years ahead of Evans. Evans is a better TTer and almost as good a climber at his peak. Nibali looked great in the tour but he had the mental of freedom of not having any real opposition. Against Froome and Contador he might have won, might not have won but he would not have looked so good because he would have been in a real fight for the win. Cadel had to fight against much better riders in 2011 and he beat them but was clearly not as dominate.
You are being extremely insulting to Cadel Evans with all your comments.

 

[Red Rick]

to being twice the gt rider. Doesn't mean that he actually rides with twice the amount watts as Evans. It's more like a figure of speech that takes into account placements in gts combined with how dominant he was. Last years giro and this years tour are in my opinion lightyears ahead of Evans tour win in 11. add to that a "lucky" Vuelta and his palamares are >>>>>> over Evans + the dominant way he won 2 of them also puts him >>>> over Evans. I will say though, that if Evasn was in his 11 form, and we got a tour with 150km ITT and 1 mountainstage, he might have a shot again Nibbles.
So fine. Nibbles are lightyears ahead of Evans, but he isnt "twice" the rider.
Happy?

I don't think he'll get figurative speech

 

[Netserk]

I have done some advanced calculations that show that Nibali is currently 4.73 times a better cyclist than Evans ever was.

 

[Red Rick]

I have done some advanced calculations that show that Nibali is currently 4.73 times a better cyclist than Evans ever was.

I'd like to ad that the p-value is 0.000001

 

[Luigi_Max]

I don't think he'll get figurative speech

I get it is figurative speech but it still does not apply, we are talking about who is better between two excellent GT riders. One is a bit better climber, the other is a bit better TTer. One has a far better record in amount won but that is not what this thread is about.
What is being claimed here is that Evans would not have been competitive with Nibali on his form this year. That is just totally wrong and insulting to Evans.

 

[Luigi_Max]

I have done some advanced calculations that show that Nibali is currently 4.73 times a better cyclist than Evans ever was.

I am good at maths, please explain your calculations to me.

 

[Red Rick]

I get it is figurative speech but it still does not apply, we are talking about who is better between two excellent GT riders. One is a bit better climber, the other is a bit better TTer. One has a far better record in amount won but that is not what this thread is about.
What is being claimed here is that Evans would not have been competitive with Nibali on his form this year. That is just totally wrong and insulting to Evans.

You think that Evans after getting destroyed in the Giro, could be competitive with Nibali in the Tour? That's not just insulting to Nibali, that's insulting to every rider who rode for the GC in the Tour.

 

[Luigi_Max]

You think that Evans after getting destroyed in the Giro, could be competitive with Nibali in the Tour? That's not just insulting to Nibali, that's insulting to every rider who rode for the GC in the Tour.

You need to read the title of the thread. It is about comparing 2007 or 2011 Evans, his two peak performances in a GT in my view, with 2014 Nibali.

I never ever said Evans would be competitive with Nibali if he had raced this year. Evans is way below his best as a climber, he simply would have been no where in this Tour. I doubt he would have beaten Zubeldia or even Schleck in this tour, even if he had not raced the giro. Anyone who thinks Evans could have competitive at this years tour is just as wrong as those who claim Evans at his peak was nowhere near as good as Nibali is now.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

You need to read the title of the thread. It is about comparing 2007 or 2011 Evans, his two peak performances in a GT in my view, with 2014 Nibali.

I never ever said Evans would be competitive with Nibali if he had raced this year. Evans is way below his best as a climber, he simply would have been no where in this Tour. I doubt he would have beaten Zubeldia or even Schleck in this tour, even if he had not raced the giro. Anyone who thinks Evans could have competitive at this years tour is just as wrong as those who claim Evans at his peak was nowhere near as good as Nibali is now.

I don't know if we can find any w/kg outputs from Evans 2011 tour climbing and compare it to this years Nibbles. Would help us to get atleast an idea of the difference in their level. Even though, the lenght of the stages and how they were raced are variables that are hard to put in into the formula

 

[del1962]

I would say that at the moment Evans has a better TDF record than Nibali, it really depends how you rate the Giro and Vuelta in relation to the tour, the tour as a rule is far more competitive due to it being the focus of most GC riders season

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

The poll is skewed because Nibali is in his prime and Evans currently isn't. I personally thought that Nibali would have been owned by Contador and Froome. I don't rate him as a good as a GC ride as Evans or some others as he has won many of his races due to competitors being injured or off form riders.

Funny stuff....
Evans won against a 100% in form and untired Contador?
Anyway, we're comparing Evans' peak, 2007+2011 vs Nibali's peak, 2014 (IMO he wasn't weaker at the Giro 13, but ok). So Evans even in his prime was still beaten and arrived second... says it all. Nibali clearly better, not even close. Evans in his prime would have competed for second place against Péraud in the Tour 14, not against Nibali.

 

[Luigi_Max]

I don't know if we can find any w/kg outputs from Evans 2011 tour climbing and compare it to this years Nibbles. Would help us to get atleast an idea of the difference in their level. Even though, the lenght of the stages and how they were raced are variables that are hard to put in into the formula

The only couple of comparisons of final climbs I can find between 2014 and Evans previously are.

Hautacam. Nibali 2014, 37:23 Evans 2008, 39:47
Pla d'Adet. Nibali 2014, 30:32 Evans 2005 33:13. Evans was equal eighth fastest with Zubeldia, Hincapie was the 7th fastest in 2005.

 

[Netserk]

Evans' times on Alpe:

2006: 40'14'' (no bio passport)
2008: 41'45''
2011: 42'08''

I guess his best climbing performance after the passport might be Zonc '10, but I don't know. He certainly wasn't anywhere near where Nibali is now.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Evans' times on Alpe:

2006: 40'14'' (no bio passport)
2008: 41'45''
2011: 42'08''

I guess his best climbing performance after the passport might be Zonc '10, but I don't know. He certainly wasn't anywhere near where Nibali is now.

2011 Evans just followed the Schlecks up and the crowds were terribly close around the riders for a lot of the early part of the climb, the riders could not have attacked even if they want to.
2008 Evans was not climbing that great by the end of the tour, he clearly faded in 2008 while in 2011 he was still going very strong.

Evans best climbing performance is probably the chase of Schleck on the Galibier in 2011, he went to the front and stayed there. However for the whole length of the climb it might not be that good because the group played around for a while before Evans took control. Contador went to the front but just did not have the legs. No one else was that interested in helping.