Better GT rider in their primes: Evans vs Nibali

[Angliru]

Great, you obviously did not read the claims I was arguing against and have, like Red Rick, taken my comments out of context. I have no problem with people saying Nibali would beat Evans, I have a problem with people saying that there would be no contest, that Evans would be convincingly beaten. That is simply absurd.

I'm on your side in terms of arguing against the claims that Evans wouldn't be competitive in this hypothetical battle.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Was the weather the same in both instances? Nope. Does that make a big difference? Yep. So was Evans as impressive? Nope.

Still not enough data.

As you say the weather was not the same so we do not know how Evans would do in the same weather conditions. Evans was not deterred on the mud stage of the 2010 Giro. Okay a different surface but everything about his background indicates bad conditions would suit him well. The dry conditions almost certainly helped Evans rivals including, Schleck, Menchov and even Contador in 2010.
The whole circumstances of the way Nibali and Evans came to the cobble stage were completely different. Evans had raced a very hard Giro and no one thought he actually would be able to be anywhere near his best because of this, perhaps in his heart even Evans didn't believe he could back up. Evans needed to conserve all the energy he could. So attacking the lead group would have been completely against what he was trying to do, he made time on everyone expect Schleck without having to do anything spectacular. His tactics worked well, he got into yellow, however having crashed meant he had no hope of being competitive, if he ever had any hope.
Nibali on the other hand came into the race completely fresh and knew he was up against two excellent climbers, perhaps a bit better climbers than him, so taking time in other stages was vital to his bid. He also had a teammate with him the whole time, having Cancellara certainly helped Schleck in 2010 and having Fuglsang also helped Nibali.

 

[Jspear]

Still not enough data.

As you say the weather was not the same so we do not know how Evans would do in the same weather conditions. Evans was not deterred on the mud stage of the 2010 Giro. Okay a different surface but everything about his background indicates bad conditions would suit him well. The dry conditions almost certainly helped Evans rivals including, Schleck, Menchov and even Contador in 2010.
The whole circumstances of the way Nibali and Evans came to the cobble stage were completely different. Evans had raced a very hard Giro and no one thought he actually would be able to be anywhere near his best because of this, perhaps in his heart even Evans didn't believe he could back up. Evans needed to conserve all the energy he could. So attacking the lead group would have been completely against what he was trying to do, he made time on everyone expect Schleck without having to do anything spectacular. His tactics worked well, he got into yellow, however having crashed meant he had no hope of being competitive, if he ever had any hope.
Nibali on the other hand came into the race completely fresh and knew he was up against two excellent climbers, perhaps a bit better climbers than him, so taking time in other stages was vital to his bid. He also had a teammate with him the whole time, having Cancellara certainly helped Schleck in 2010 and having Fuglsang also helped Nibali.

Don't have to spit out a lot of data, it just has to be true.
It's simple - Nibali's ride (on the cobbles) showed more skill. Could Evans had done the same thing? You don't know, I don't know.

IF Cadel was as good as VN on the cobbles he would have won the stage in 2010. "The conditions were dry and since he's just as good as VN and he has better conditions he'll do better than VN did (jesting in the quotes.)" But no he wasn't able to better, he was only able to get the same placing but his conditions were easier. VN is better on the cobbles.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Don't have to spit out a lot of data, it just has to be true.
It's simple - Nibali's ride (on the cobbles) showed more skill. Could Evans had done the same thing? You don't know, I don't know.

IF Cadel was as good as VN on the cobbles he would have won the stage in 2010. "The conditions were dry and since he's just as good as VN and he has better conditions he'll do better than VN did (jesting in the quotes.)" But no he wasn't able to better, he was only able to get the same placing but his conditions were easier. VN is better on the cobbles.

This post is just nonsense. You have no data as too how Evans would have ridden in the wet on cobbles so you just cannot make a direct comparison. The only indications seem to show that Evans has done well on cobbles in the dry and does not suffer in wet conditions on a none tarmac surface. Also with his mountain biking background he is far more experienced at riding on various surfaces than Nibali.
You can say Nibali's performance was more impressive, and maybe it was, but you cannot say he is a better cobbles rider.

 

[Jspear]

This post is just nonsense. You have no data as too how Evans would have ridden in the wet on cobbles so you just cannot make a direct comparison. The only indications seem to show that Evans has done well on cobbles in the dry and does not suffer in wet conditions on a none tarmac surface. Also with his mountain biking background he is far more experienced at riding on various surfaces than Nibali.
You can say Nibali's performance was more impressive, and maybe it was, but you cannot say he is a better cobbles rider.

My 2nd paragraph was somewhat speculative just as your posts have all been in this thread. It contains no more nonsense then anything you have said in this thread. What I said does make sense....if Cadel was as good as Nibali on the cobbles, he would have done better than Nibali because the road conditions were better for him in 2010 - Instead he could only get the same placing as Nibali. Let me word it this way: If Nibali (with his top form) had been racing in 2010 he would have done even better than he did in 2014. Why? Because if he could do what he did in the rain, then he would be even better in the dry conditions. And if he could place higher in 2010 than he did in 2014 than he would beat Cadel Evans. Or look at it this way: Cadel is only as good as Nibali on the cobbles if it is dry for him and wet + raining for Nibali, thus in reality Nibali is better. Sure call it speculation....just remember that's all you are doing as well.

 

[Archibald]

Cobbles?

 

[movingtarget]

Cobbles?

And also the best sprinter of the GC riders apart from Valverde, and Rodriguez on the steep ramps.

 

[seabridge]

Nibali.
What almost won Andy the tour on the Galibier stage in '11, Nibali would/could have done in sevarel stages, due to his agressiveness. If Andy was a better TT' like Nibali, Evans would never have won that tour.

 

[Red Rick]

Nibali.
What almost won Andy the tour on the Galibier stage in '11, Nibali would/could have done in sevarel stages, due to his agressiveness. If Andy was a better TT' like Nibali, Evans would never have won that tour.

This, if 2014 vintage Nibali rides the 2011 Tour and doesn't have any significant crashes, I'd bet a lof of money on him winning.

 

[Red Rick]

And also the best sprinter of the GC riders apart from Valverde, and Rodriguez on the steep ramps.

Sprinting has absolutely nothing to do with GT ability

 

[movingtarget]

Sprinting has absolutely nothing to do with GT ability

Well duh you don't say. I was just making an observation about his sprinting ability. I have already said elsewhere that Nibali has the better GT record but it's very difficult to line up two riders from different years against different opposition and say one is better than the other categorically. Nibali has the better paper record and will probably add further GT wins. Evans raced against Contador, the Schleck brothers, Sastre, Armstrong in his later but still successful years, and Menchov at their peak. How would Nibali have gone against such opposition ? We will never know.

 

[darwin553]

Well duh you don't say. I was just making an observation about his sprinting ability. I have already said elsewhere that Nibali has the better GT record but it's very difficult to line up two riders from different years against different opposition and say one is better than the other categorically. Nibali has the better paper record and will probably add further GT wins. Evans raced against Contador, the Schleck brothers, Sastre, Armstrong in his later but still successful years, and Menchov at their peak. How would Nibali have gone against such opposition ? We will never know.

Yup Nibali seems to have had it much easier.

 

[Luigi_Max]

My 2nd paragraph was somewhat speculative just as your posts have all been in this thread. It contains no more nonsense then anything you have said in this thread. What I said does make sense....if Cadel was as good as Nibali on the cobbles, he would have done better than Nibali because the road conditions were better for him in 2010 - Instead he could only get the same placing as Nibali. Let me word it this way: If Nibali (with his top form) had been racing in 2010 he would have done even better than he did in 2014. Why? Because if he could do what he did in the rain, then he would be even better in the dry conditions. And if he could place higher in 2010 than he did in 2014 than he would beat Cadel Evans. Or look at it this way: Cadel is only as good as Nibali on the cobbles if it is dry for him and wet + raining for Nibali, thus in reality Nibali is better. Sure call it speculation....just remember that's all you are doing as well.

Actually Evans did do better if you want to get technical. Evans finished on the same time as the stage winner where as Nibali lost time to the stage winner. Finishing on the same time as the stage winner has to be better than losing time to the stage winner even if the placing is the same. However I do not think it is really that relevant to the discussion.
At least now you seem to be saying that claiming Nibali is better at cobbles is pure speculation. It has absolutely no basis in fact, there is simply no facts on which to base any comparison between the two riders, the data available proves nothing except they both have done one excellent ride on cobbles.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Cobbles?

Mainly not cobbles but an extremely impressive performance. Especially since he was held up by the same crash, just before the first section of dirt, that Nibali, after the cobbled stage at the tour, said knocked him out of contention for the stage. Nibali was held up more by the crash, but Evans had to chase back, without any teammates, through the whole first dirt section. To then go on and win the stage was remarkable, far more impressive than Nibali on the cobbles at the tour.

Rereading the the report on the stage the final straight to the finish was actually cobbled, something I had forgotten. So Evans actually has won a stage were he made the difference on cobbles, in that he won the sprint to the line on cobbles.

 

[Luigi_Max]

Nibali.
What almost won Andy the tour on the Galibier stage in '11, Nibali would/could have done in sevarel stages, due to his agressiveness. If Andy was a better TT' like Nibali, Evans would never have won that tour.

If Andy had ridden with any brains in 2011 I am sure he would have beaten Evans, he also would have beaten Nibali. It, though, is like saying if a football team had taken all their chances they would have won the game. Just as putting shots on target in a football is a skill so is riding with brains in cycling. However Schleck wasted his immense talent and now injuries seem to ended his chances of ever riding at a high level again.

Also I do not think Nibali would have gone a 1:35 faster than Schleck's time in the 2011 TT. I suspect more like a minute faster but that would not have been enough. It was quite a tough TT, Cancellara did not do that well.

 

[seabridge]

If Andy had ridden with any brains in 2011 I am sure he would have beaten Evans, he also would have beaten Nibali. It, though, is like saying if a football team had taken all their chances they would have won the game. Just as putting shots on target in a football is a skill so is riding with brains in cycling. However Schleck wasted his immense talent and now injuries seem to ended his chances of ever riding at a high level again.

Also I do not think Nibali would have gone a 1:35 faster than Schleck's time in the 2011 TT. I suspect more like a minute faster but that would not have been enough. It was quite a tough TT, Cancellara did not do that well.

Good point, but we'll never know

 

[Jspear]

Actually Evans did do better if you want to get technical. Evans finished on the same time as the stage winner where as Nibali lost time to the stage winner. Finishing on the same time as the stage winner has to be better than losing time to the stage winner even if the placing is the same. However I do not think it is really that relevant to the discussion.
At least now you seem to be saying that claiming Nibali is better at cobbles is pure speculation. It has absolutely no basis in fact, there is simply no facts on which to base any comparison between the two riders, the data available proves nothing except they both have done one excellent ride on cobbles.

If you want to get technical Cadel only averaged 26.645 mph that day. Nibali averaged 29.240 mph....in the rain....in harder conditions...Nibali is better on the cobbles.

 

[Walkman]

If you want to get technical Cadel only averaged 26.645 mph that day. Nibali averaged 29.240 mph....in the rain....in harder conditions...Nibali is better on the cobbles.

Worst argument ever, and I really hope you can see the flaws in your own logic here.

 

[cineteq]

If you want to get technical Cadel only averaged 26.645 mph that day. Nibali averaged 29.240 mph....in the rain....in harder conditions...Nibali is better on the cobbles.

Worst argument ever, and I really hope you can see the flaws in your own logic here.

That argument is almost as good as saying: "Nibali is better 'cause he's italian".

 

[mr. tibbs]

That argument is almost as good as saying: "Nibali is better 'cause he's italian".

Which but except what you've said is true.

 

[Jspear]

Worst argument ever, and I really hope you can see the flaws in your own logic here.

I only brought that up in light of the fact that he said Evans finished in the same group as the 2010 winner were as Nibali finished in the second group. I was just pointing out that Nibali actually had a higher average speed (yes I know the stage was not as long this year.)

 

[Archibald]

Sprinting has absolutely nothing to do with GT ability

it did help Evans in 2011 - see stages 1 and 4 (i think) - picking up some time at each hilly finish.
"marginal gains"

 

[Netserk]

 

[May0maniac]

Nice, but without knowning the length of each effort you cant compare them.

 

[Netserk]

Nice, but without knowning the length of each effort you cant compare them.

You do recognize most of the climbs, no?

Not a single of Evans' performances are near Hautacam, Risoul and Belles Filles of Nibali.