Tiocfaidh ár láKing Boonen said:How would you deal with the hard border between Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland that this necessitate? We can't have FTAs elsewhere and a soft border which would allow free flow of these goods into the EU.Brullnux said:The issue right now for the UK is: either you have no tariffs etc and you stay in the single market/customs union, but have no control over immigration (which in all honesty is basically a non-issue in reality) and no ability to have fta with third parties, or you have tariffs and lose much of the city services etc. which are crucial to a uk economy which revolves around them, along with quite a few of the remaining manufacturing jobs. So basically stay in an objectively worse version of the eu, or a break which will probably have negative effects. The second is more palatable to the public.
But I still see no plus-side to this. A dependent (by nature, it's one vs 27) relationship formed over 45 years (and longer, since post-war really) is hard to undo in two. Perhaps in twenty years time we will have been able to make up for the inevitable loss in trade we'll have in regards to the eu with emerging countries and refocus our exports, but even then I doubt if many of the powerful countries are willing to let smaller countries catch up on them and overtake them - so the market in said countries will still be fairly small. And we can't export services to the USA, Japan, China or India (biggest four potential partners) because quite simply there is no demand for them in those areas, especially if they can find it cheaper elsewhere. Perhaps to further compound our issues, I think that with the approaching automation most developing countries will not head towards manufacturing from agriculture but straight to tertiary services, which will decapitate our whole approach to whatever it is liam fox is in charge of. Like I said, I doubt there are many positives to come away from this - I'd appreciate anyone to tell me I'm wrong and instil some optimism.
If I were in charge, I'd accept v. small tariffs in certain areas (the eu chooses, i'm not deluded, i know they hold the cards), for the ability to do free trade agreements elsewhere; whilst simultaneously accepting immigration from eu countries, with the benefit provision that was always there anyway, and abiding by eu regulations (which are mostly positive imo anyway).