By how much will Contador win this year's Giro with?

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I would normally say 1.5 to 2 minutes on Aru and equal to little richie (+/- 20s) but because Contador had to adjust his position I think 1 to 1.5 on Aru and 10-20s loss to Porte. I hope Berto can keep pink.

I agree that Contador and Richie about equal and the fact that Contador has to change his position is a disadvantage, but your time gaps are messed up.

It's a hard 60k time trial and one of them is going to lose 1-2 minutes to the other.

Even in a 20k TT, the gaps between the favorites are often big.

 

[ray j willings]

If nothing major bad happens then it comes down to how well Bertie is going. If he's going well then I think he will test himself on one of the big mountain stages but I don't really expect huge gaps. He has to save energy/ form for the tour.
Porte will blow up on a stage or 2 but Astana are looking strong so he may have a harder time than he wants. Aru is going to go for it big time at some point. Plus we could have another crazy Garmin /Ryder attack that could blow the race apart.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I would normally say 1.5 to 2 minutes on Aru and equal to little richie (+/- 20s) but because Contador had to adjust his position I think 1 to 1.5 on Aru and 10-20s loss to Porte. I hope Berto can keep pink.

I agree that Contador and Richie about equal and the fact that Contador has to change his position is a disadvantage, but your time gaps are messed up.

It's a hard 60k time trial and one of them is going to lose 1-2 minutes to the other.

Even in a 20k TT, the gaps between the favorites are often big.

I honestly doubt the difference between Porte and Contador is going to be 1 minute or bigger.

 

[Netserk]

Yeah, except for a few, there weren't that big gaps in the last long ITT in the Giro ('13).

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Yeah, except for a few, there weren't that big gaps in the last long ITT in the Giro ('13).

But wasn't the first part of that ITT very technical? This one is pretty straight forward.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

????? where did anyone say that ????

I said that Carol.
Next time you can adress the post direct to me Miburo, or I dont understand why you didnt do that


To your (Miburo) post...it has nothing to do with being a fan.I just make predictions and it doesnt affect me if Im a fan or not (mostly ), its also because I bet a lot, and I cant be a fanboy when predicting as the result would be a poor ILovecycling .
I said 30-40 secs and I stand by my prediction, it is based on Aru's improvement in a tt (might be a trash talk and Im completely wrong tho) and not so big gaps in TT's generally in Giro.Also I still dont think AC will pull a great one.I hope that now it is more clear.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

1'30" - 2'14" or even closer, depending on whether Porte cracks. Aru will lose atleast 2minutes in the TT and gain nothing back in the following week. Porte, however, either cracks big time or stays with Alberto on most climbs, so it may come to a close battle between those two.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I think that should be the difference, considering how bad is contador in long ITTs. But Porte maybe is not very good in long ITTm si or Rigo recover his level, or the ITT wont be a problem for Contador.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I think that should be the difference, considering how bad is contador in long ITTs. But Porte maybe is not very good in long ITTm si or Rigo recover his level, or the ITT wont be a problem for Contador.

Examples, please.
Since 2007, I can only see TDF 2010 (okay, and Dauphiné 2007).
He has way more solid results in 40km+ TTs than he has bad results.
Of course a 60km TT is different, but the same goes for Porte.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I would normally say 1.5 to 2 minutes on Aru and equal to little richie (+/- 20s) but because Contador had to adjust his position I think 1 to 1.5 on Aru and 10-20s loss to Porte. I hope Berto can keep pink.

I agree that Contador and Richie about equal and the fact that Contador has to change his position is a disadvantage, but your time gaps are messed up.

It's a hard 60k time trial and one of them is going to lose 1-2 minutes to the other.

Even in a 20k TT, the gaps between the favorites are often big.

I honestly doubt the difference between Porte and Contador is going to be 1 minute or bigger.

In 2011 TDF Contador finished 3rd in the Stage 20 42Km ITT to Grenoble - a heroic effort and on a similar but shorter course than what they will race tomorrow. And yet AC still lost 1 minute to Evans. The gaps might be small over 60km but more chance they will be bigger - the distance will magnify any small difference in power. We will see.

Aru is the rider most under pressure. While aggressive he hasn't looked so fearsome so far on the climbs. And I think he will need to be fearsome for rest of the Giro to make up the time he could potentially lose in the ITT.

 

[Miburo]

TDF 2010 can't be used as an example btw since the wind completely changed at the end of the ITT.

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I would normally say 1.5 to 2 minutes on Aru and equal to little richie (+/- 20s) but because Contador had to adjust his position I think 1 to 1.5 on Aru and 10-20s loss to Porte. I hope Berto can keep pink.

I agree that Contador and Richie about equal and the fact that Contador has to change his position is a disadvantage, but your time gaps are messed up.

It's a hard 60k time trial and one of them is going to lose 1-2 minutes to the other.

Even in a 20k TT, the gaps between the favorites are often big.

I honestly doubt the difference between Porte and Contador is going to be 1 minute or bigger.

In 2011 TDF Contador finished 3rd in the Stage 20 42Km ITT to Grenoble - a heroic effort and on a similar but shorter course than what they will race tomorrow. And yet AC still lost 1 minute to Evans. The gaps might be small over 60km but more chance they will be bigger - the distance will magnify any small difference in power. We will see.

Aru is the rider most under pressure. While aggressive he hasn't looked so fearsome so far on the climbs. And I think he will need to be fearsome for rest of the Giro to make up the time he could potentially lose in the ITT.

That tt Evans was fighting for the yellow jersey. Contador was fighting for nothing, a chance to get up to 5th. Besides the previous day he had tried a 100k break and gone full out on Alpe d huez.
A month before he had won the hardest gt in recent cycling history, one which was so hard every single rider that completed it ended up cracking in the Vuelta 2 months later.

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

I think that should be the difference, considering how bad is contador in long ITTs. But Porte maybe is not very good in long ITTm si or Rigo recover his level, or the ITT wont be a problem for Contador.

Examples, please.
Since 2007, I can only see TDF 2010 (okay, and Dauphiné 2007).
He has way more solid results in 40km+ TTs than he has bad results.
Of course a 60km TT is different, but the same goes for Porte.

2012 Worlds I suppose.

I agree its difficult to judge Contador as he hasn't done that many long tts recently. They only really tend to be at the Tour, Vuelta and worlds. Tour 2013 didn't have one. 14 he didn't make it. The 2 Vuelta tt's he did well in were more suited for gc riders

 

[LaFlorecita]

His result in 2012 Worlds wasn't so bad. It just looked bad because he got hyped up as a potential winner by the media and then he got caught by Martin on the course

 

[Miburo]

Worlds also can't be used since it's not a GT. Way different after 2 weeks of racing.

Problem is that most other examples have hills in it, at least more than in the 60 km ITT.

But even assuming it's a meh performance of contador he'll still *** on aru.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Beyond me how some so called contador fans who i assume followed contador already for a while think he'll take 30-40 sec on aru in a 60 ITT.

Pretty hilarious.

????? where did anyone say that ????

In the post before the one you are reading.

 

[Cookster15]

Hitch, I well remember and understand all that from 2011 TDF. Did you miss the bit where I said AC's ride that day was "heroic" ? My point was gaps over 60km are more likely to be big rather than small. Sorry that I had to mention "Evans" and you were compelled to reply.

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

Hitch, I well remember and understand all that from 2011 TDF. Did you miss the bit where I said AC's ride that day was "heroic" ? My point was gaps over 60km are more likely to be big rather than small. Sorry that I had to mention "Evans" and you were compelled to reply.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that you didn't know all those things, in fact, I honestly considered after i sent the post editing it to say " I know you know this". I was just adding to the context is all.

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

Worlds also can't be used since it's not a GT. Way different after 2 weeks of racing.

Problem is that most other examples have hills in it, at least more than in the 60 km ITT.

But even assuming it's a meh performance of contador he'll still **** on aru.

Worlds are different but not totally invalid. Contador came 4th in the olympic tt in Beijing. Other supposed gt tters like Armstrong Evans Froome have also done very well in single tt's.

 

[Jancouver]

Between the TT and real mountains, 2nd Aru will be at least 5min behind.
3rd Uran at about 8min,
4th still unknown at about 10min,
5th Porte at about 12min behind

No Helicopter transfers, no RV hospital, nothing can save Porte.

 

[cineteq]

Re: Re:

I honestly doubt the difference between Porte and Contador is going to be 1 minute or bigger.

Contador most likely lose 2 or more minutes to Porte, and even to Uran.

 

[thehook]

A would hope that any GC contender would not put his whole chance on 1ITT result. I don't believe Porte will put much time if any into AC. I do believe Uran will win the stage. But to win the Giro on 1 TT result. I doubt it. Uran very well could win the TT, but he will get destroyed in week 3 high mountains.

Aru I think has been on the Attack this week trying to limit or gain time. Thinking he will lose 1 to 3 min. to AC & Porte.

 

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

I honestly doubt the difference between Porte and Contador is going to be 1 minute or bigger.

Contador most likely lose 2 or more minutes to Porte, and even to Uran.

I'm glad you made this prediction. Remember the vuelta? Once a tool...

 

[Arredondo]

I think Aru will lose 2.00-2.30 minutes in the TT.

In the mountains, he will be on par with Alberto, but will lose some 30 seconds in one of the big mountain stages because Alberto wants to show at least once he's also the king when the road goes uphill.

So 2'30'' - 3'00'' for me.

 

[SergeDeM]

More than 3 minutes.
Aru will lose a couple minutes in the ITT and will probably be dropped in at least one MTF in the third week.
Porte will lose a bucketload of minutes the day he bonks.
Uran doesn't have his A-game for this Giro.