Cadel evans do or die for tour de france this july

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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
That isn't the point.
Like my post indicated, Gesink was in bad form at TA and still limited his losses. He didn't even want to continue racing but his team willed him on.
When in top form he has no problem. The tour ones aren't as explosive either, at TA they were very steep very sudden. Here the stages have hilly finishes around 4 to 8%

I am certain he will be in better form at tour, the Dauphine he was below peak but still looked better then he has in quite some time.
Every GC guy was below peak at the Dauphine. Gesink still looked horrible on the second stage.

Mur de Bretagne has ramps up to 15%. And 8-10% is more than enough to do some serious damage. See Rodriguez's second win at the Dauphine. He gained 7 seconds in a heartbeat, and could have gained much more if he wanted to. Cuddles was already cooked because of all the climbing, but will still be fresh at le Tour.


Super Besse should not be underrated. Saint Flour... very steep in the final 300 meters if the profile at letour.fr is correct.

I dunno... maybe you're right, but I don't think one minute is a whole lot when there are like 5 hill top finishes in the first 11 days.
 
Sure, Evans could win stages like that but hard to see him gaining much time without time bonuses. But it's also true that some of the GC riders struggle more than Evans on the fast flat stages or up and down stages that are similar to the classics. Plenty of moderate climbs but not big ones. Those are the stages where Vino and Evans should be able to take some time here and there or a stage win if they time their attacks properly.
 
luckyboy said:
Whatever he gains with time bonuses on the puncheur stages, he would lose with time bonuses on mountain stages.
True, so he probably won't bother, and save himself for the harder stages and the time trial unless he loses too much time early in the race and just decides to try and win a stage. The latter seems unlikely though, knowing how Evans approaches these races.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Ryo Hazuki said:
that is so untrue. gesink actually podium the agr, if there's one race punchy and short hills it's that. in topshape gesink will have less trouble than basso for sure.
He got that third spot from attacking before the Cauberg with 2 other guys. He got horribly dropped by these 2 and Gilbert almost caught him even... Not a great example.
 
delbified said:
one of the things cuddles' detractors conveniently neglect to account for is the lack of team support he has enjoyed in the high mountains. Lotto were a joke and weren't really riding for him. this makes a big difference as he gets left without water and food at critical points in the race, or has to expend energy going back to the team car.

he didn't get a chance last year with his broken elbow. it will be interesting to see what difference BMC makes for him this year. i'm not saying that he's going to towel Dertie or Andy but it will be interesting to see.
One thing Cuddles' supporters conveniently neglect to account for is that BMC's mountain support is no better than Lotto's (Lotto did at least try with the likes of Dekker and Kohl, but we know how those turned out). BMC's mountain helpers are mediocre.

The difference has come from Cadel himself. It's that he's no longer whining about the lack of team support and going out and grabbing the results himself.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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Libertine Seguros said:
One thing Cuddles' supporters conveniently neglect to account for is that BMC's mountain support is no better than Lotto's (Lotto did at least try with the likes of Dekker and Kohl, but we know how those turned out). BMC's mountain helpers are mediocre.

The difference has come from Cadel himself. It's that he's no longer whining about the lack of team support and going out and grabbing the results himself.
And with Horner, Popovych and I'm probably even forgetting some guys. Although didn't didn't pop up positive, but they still sucked.
 
May 27, 2010
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El Pistolero said:
He got that third spot from attacking before the Cauberg with 2 other guys. He got horribly dropped by these 2 and Gilbert almost caught him even... Not a great example.
he even got dropped by karsten kroon:D
 
Libertine Seguros said:
One thing Cuddles' supporters conveniently neglect to account for is that BMC's mountain support is no better than Lotto's (Lotto did at least try with the likes of Dekker and Kohl, but we know how those turned out). BMC's mountain helpers are mediocre.

The difference has come from Cadel himself. It's that he's no longer whining about the lack of team support and going out and grabbing the results himself.
Grabbing results in the classics and one week stage races, that is. Not in the 2 hardest GTs.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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El Pistolero said:
And with Horner, Popovych and I'm probably even forgetting some guys. Although didn't didn't pop up positive, but they still sucked.
Popo was terrible at lotto. I heard a theory that riders didn't like riding for him at lotto. Could be false, I dunno.

Anyway BMC's team are weak in the mountains, no matter how much it is argued otherwise. Come crunch time he will have no one.

But I dunno, even with a strong team in the mountains I still don't think he'd win, he just isn't good enough in the high mountains. He'd need AC to carry him on his back (literally) for me consider him a chance :p
 
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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
Popo was terrible at lotto. I heard a theory that riders didn't like riding for him at lotto. Could be false, I dunno.

Anyway BMC's team are weak in the mountains, no matter how much it is argued otherwise. Come crunch time he will have no one.

But I dunno, even with a strong team in the mountains I still don't think he'd win, he just isn't good enough in the high mountains. He'd need AC to carry him on his back (literally) for me consider him a chance :p
And you have said this 10 billion times. We get the point. You don't think he can win because he can't climb with the best. Why are you continually harping on about it?
 
May 27, 2010
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Im sure morabito, moinard and santamorita will hit their form in the tour they have been peaking for this all year. I wont be surprised if i see some of them up there on the mountains. But when there is an elite group they wont be there for sure. it would be the same for nearly everyone else except for leopard. maybe saxo or liquigas too.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Libertine Seguros said:
One thing Cuddles' supporters conveniently neglect to account for is that BMC's mountain support is no better than Lotto's (Lotto did at least try with the likes of Dekker and Kohl, but we know how those turned out). BMC's mountain helpers are mediocre.

The difference has come from Cadel himself. It's that he's no longer whining about the lack of team support and going out and grabbing the results himself.
So you acknowledge that Lotto was mediocre in supporting cadel and you acknowledge that BMC is mediocre in supporting him on the climbs yet when he comments about it (which only did once or twice) you call it whining? Unbelievable.

I've ignored this theard as much as possible but I can't help myself and I have weakened.:rolleyes:
 
Jan 11, 2010
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El Pistolero said:
He got that third spot from attacking before the Cauberg with 2 other guys. He got horribly dropped by these 2 and Gilbert almost caught him even... Not a great example.
I don't see your point, Gesink was already the strongest up the Keutenberg before his attack (yes, stronger than Gilbert, albeit just a little). And he was 22 years old back then, which is why the distance eventually got the better of him.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
And you have said this 10 billion times. We get the point. You don't think he can win because he can't climb with the best. Why are you continually harping on about it?
you say positive posts 10 billion times, I say negative 10 billions time.

You don't like it, don't have to pay attention to my posts :)

So you acknowledge that Lotto was mediocre in supporting cadel and you acknowledge that BMC is mediocre in supporting him on the climbs yet when he comments about it (which only did once or twice) you call it whining? Unbelievable.
he means he has the same quality at BMC, yet his attitude has changed.
 
Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
Popo was terrible at lotto. I heard a theory that riders didn't like riding for him at lotto. Could be false, I dunno.

Anyway BMC's team are weak in the mountains, no matter how much it is argued otherwise. Come crunch time he will have no one.

But I dunno, even with a strong team in the mountains I still don't think he'd win, he just isn't good enough in the high mountains. He'd need AC to carry him on his back (literally) for me consider him a chance :p
Agreed. All the team support in the world won't make that much of a difference if you're still unable to respond to your opponents accelerations or in doing so, you put yourself in the red. It would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Evans to actually win the Tour. His support in the mountains is unchanged-he'll be on his lonesome again, just like every year in the past. What will be intriguing will be his battle with VDB2. There can't help but be some desire between the two to better one another at every turn.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
you say positive posts 10 billion times, I say negative 10 billions time.

You don't like it, don't have to pay attention to my posts :)



he means he has the same quality at BMC, yet his attitude has changed.
Understood but I don't really see the point in repeating yourself. I like reading your posts so will always read them.:)
 
auscyclefan94 said:
So you acknowledge that Lotto was mediocre in supporting cadel and you acknowledge that BMC is mediocre in supporting him on the climbs yet when he comments about it (which only did once or twice) you call it whining? Unbelievable.

I've ignored this theard as much as possible but I can't help myself and I have weakened.:rolleyes:
My point is that BMC are no better at supporting Evans than Lotto (though you remain highly critical of Lotto's efforts) - but Evans' attitude has changed and that's what makes the biggest difference.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
Understood but I don't really see the point in repeating yourself. I like reading your posts so will always read them
fair enough, I didn't realize I was being so repetitive, I think i made my point now :p It's the circus I tell ya... :eek:

Agreed. All the team support in the world won't make that much of a difference if you're still unable to respond to your opponents accelerations or in doing so, you put yourself in the red. It would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Evans to actually win the Tour. His support in the mountains is unchanged-he'll be on his lonesome again, just like every year in the past. What will be intriguing will be his battle with VDB2. There can't help but be some desire between the two to better one another at every turn.
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It would be pretty cool if VdB and Evans battled it out all tour for 4th place (behind gesink of course :eek: :p)
 
Jul 16, 2010
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theyoungest said:
I don't see your point, Gesink was already the strongest up the Keutenberg before his attack (yes, stronger than Gilbert, albeit just a little). And he was 22 years old back then, which is why the distance eventually got the better of him.
We're talking about short uphill finishes.

Sure he did good at FW once, but his most recent results in that race aren't exactly stellar.
 
Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
It would be pretty cool if VdB and Evans battled it out all tour for 4th place (behind gesink of course :eek: :p)
reckon this will be the best race to watch - gesink, evans, samu, vdb2 all trying to get on the podium.
much better than the other two playing their "you go first", "no, after you", "sorry I finished ahead of you today", "can my brother have a go today please?" chummy rubbish.
 
Everyone seems to agree that Evans has had minimal support in the mountains but he has finished second twice. I tend to think that support in the mountains is overrated unless it's on an exposed climb like Ventoux or Etna where the wind can play a part.

Discovery and Saxo were good at protecting their leader on the flat and lower slopes of climbs. When the attacks start most of the top riders don't have any team mates left anyway or if they do, not for long.

It's a bit like saying that you need a sprint train to win a sprint which is not true. Looking at Evans's team for the TDF it is business as usual. I don't see any of those BMC riders being there with Evans when the attacks start and that's okay because I don't think it makes a big difference. When you are defending the yellow jersey it makes a more difference.

I think this year it is more important for Evans not to lose too much time in the TT. If he is good enough in the mountains he will be there. Sometimes it is what happens before the climbs that soften up the GC riders but sometimes that can also backfire if a team leader overestimates how good he is on the day and gets his team to attack at the bottom of the climb or before. I would just like Evans to ride the TDF without falls or illness and accept what he has done whether it's good or bad. That way, his detractors cannot say that he is making excuses or whatever and he can't say he was unlucky. I think it could be a really interesting TDF this year and I hope Evans can rediscover some of his old Tour form.
 
movingtarget said:
I would just like Evans to ride the TDF without falls or illness and accept what he has done whether it's good or bad. That way, his detractors cannot say that he is making excuses or whatever and he can't say he was unlucky. I think it could be a really interesting TDF this year and I hope Evans can rediscover some of his old Tour form.
illness is no excuse if it happens all the time. Staying healthy during a GT is part of what makes a great GT rider. Or getting sick and yet still perform (like Ullrich, for example)

Not everyone is built for the Tour or the Giro.
 
18-Valve. (pithy) said:
illness is no excuse if it happens all the time. Staying healthy during a GT is part of what makes a great GT rider. Or getting sick and yet still perform (like Ullrich, for example)

Not everyone is built for the Tour or the Giro.
Yes. Some riders will ride through it and others will lose confidence. I suppose the worst illnesses are viruses and intestinal problems as they really effect recovery and strength. Plenty of riders can handle the one week races but not the grand tours. Although Evans does not strike me as the type to complain without reason. He knows how to suffer.
 

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