Cadel evans do or die for tour de france this july

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Ferminal said:
If he can't lift he's performances above those efforts it would be stupid even contemplating a ride for GC. We can only assume that his peak is better. Even so, he's only in the top 8 or 9 best climbers at the Tour, but often there are small gaps between the next best climbers so that can still be good enough for a higher GC finish.
Don't get me wrong, I think his peak will be a bit better and that a top 10 is possible. Just not a top 5.

I don't think he'll be in the top 9 best climbers anyhow.
 
Jun 22, 2009
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Evan's is deluded if he thinks he was going to win last year.
Or was that the race he was suddenly gonna become an amazing climber?
Even after the giro (which was relentless)
 
18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Don't get me wrong, I think his peak will be a bit better and that a top 10 is possible. Just not a top 5.

I don't think he'll be in the top 9 best climbers anyhow.
Contador
Schleck
Other Schleck
Sanchez
Basso
JVdB
Gesink
Token Radioshack Leader
Soler (if he's in form and stays up)

His TT in the Dauphine was actually ok, even though he lost big time to Wiggins. If he repeats that effort he will gain some time on all the names above bar Contador and maybe the Radioshacker (definitely will over Horner).
 
Although not a wonderful TDF parcours for Cadel, I believe that he has some chance of winning it this year. He is potentially the 3rd strongest rider in the race, and Contador is coming off a hard Giro. Andy's form also has not been great, although that usually is the case with him.

Evans is remarkably consistent; and durable. How many GT's in recent years has he finished top 5 in? I've lost count. He is far from the best climber, but he usually limits his losses well, and against the clock he remains one of the best out of the GC guys. As has been noted by many, he also is strong on hill top finishers. We know that on best form he cannot get close to AC and AS, but perhaps we will have a GT where many of the GC guys are inconsistent and have bad days on important stages? If that happens then a rider finishing 5-10th, 1-2 minutes behind on each MTF, suddenly isn't out of the reckoning. Yes it's unlikely, but Evans winning the TDF this year is a chance. I think he is the best chance after the big two. Basso's problems also help Cadel's chances, at least for a podium.
 
Ferminal said:
Contador
Schleck
Other Schleck
Sanchez
Basso
JVdB
Gesink
Token Radioshack Leader
Soler (if he's in form and stays up)
At least 7 out of the following 10:

- Albertoe
- Schleck 1
- Schleck 2
- Van Den Broeck
- RadioShack leader 1
- RadioShack leader 2
- Gesink
- Sanchez
- Basso
- Soler




At least 2 out of the following 11:

- VandeVelde
- Hesjedal
- Vino
- Cunego
- Wiggins
- TGBM
- RadioShack leader 3
- Coppel
- Taaramae
- Gadret
- Roche

Some are highly questionable picks, but 2 out of 11 is rather conservative, I think. At least 2 of them will deliver, surely.


His TT in the Dauphine was actually ok, even though he lost big time to Wiggins. If he repeats that effort he will gain some time on all the names above bar Contador and maybe the Radioshacker (not Horner).
He didn't lose that much time, actually. It was a solid effort, which is why I think he was close to peak performance. Wiggins is a far better time trialist and was definitely on form.

It's not likely that Evans will repeat that ITT effort, though, considering there are a couple very serious mountain stages before it. Almost an entire Tour, really. Evans is toast come Grenoble.
 
Even his "disaster" TTs at the end of 2007 and 2008 were better than most rivals. Although he's certainly not as good a TT'er now.

His time may be worse at the Tour, but relatively speaking he will be positioned similarly. If he can't recover well enough why is he even bothering racing for GC.

Looking at the Dauphine TT as a sign of form is dangerous. This thinking says that Martin and Cancellara are top form in every TT. Even Wiggins is suggesting (not sure whether or not we believe him) he's not peaked yet. Most of these people put everything into the TT (like Gesink) regardless of their preparation and approach to a race.
 
May 22, 2010
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one of the things cuddles' detractors conveniently neglect to account for is the lack of team support he has enjoyed in the high mountains. Lotto were a joke and weren't really riding for him. this makes a big difference as he gets left without water and food at critical points in the race, or has to expend energy going back to the team car.

he didn't get a chance last year with his broken elbow. it will be interesting to see what difference BMC makes for him this year. i'm not saying that he's going to towel Dertie or Andy but it will be interesting to see.
 
Ferminal said:
Even his "disaster" TTs at the end of 2007 and 2008 were better than most rivals. Although he's certainly not as good a TT'er now.

His time may be worse at the Tour, but relatively speaking he will be positioned similarly. If he can't recover well enough why is he even bothering racing for GC.
It's an obsession, really. He'll be back next year aiming for GC, regardless of this year's result.

Looking at the Dauphine TT as a sign of form is dangerous. This thinking says that Martin and Cancellara are top form in every TT. Even Wiggins is suggesting (not sure whether or not we believe him) he's not peaked yet. Most of these people put everything into the TT (like Gesink) regardless of their preparation and approach to a race.
Yes, but none of them have peaked for the Dauphine or Tour de Suisse TT, or mountain stages. Evans isn't alone in that.

There are like 25 GC hopefuls who'll claim the exact same thing. (Though it certainly looks like some have peaked too early, Cunego in particular)
 
Oct 26, 2009
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gregrowlerson said:
Evans is remarkably consistent; and durable. How many GT's in recent years has he finished top 5 in? I've lost count. He is far from the best climber, but he usually limits his losses well, and against the clock he remains one of the best out of the GC guys. As has been noted by many, he also is strong on hill top finishers. We know that on best form he cannot get close to AC and AS, but perhaps we will have a GT where many of the GC guys are inconsistent and have bad days on important stages?
I think Cadel's chances are limited. Too many ifs and buts. Let's just hope that he can stay on his bike and that he doesn't lose too much time after a AC/Baby Schleck attack.
 
18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Then what do you make of the examples I listed?

He's been very consistent this season. Performed at a high or very high level. Except... in the high mountains.
Well, I agree. He has to minimise his losses on the MTF's. He has to do a great time trial and not lose too much time in the team time trial. A big ask. But will Contador be at his best in the mountains after the Giro ? He might not have to be but it still means that the time gaps may not be that big.

Even though Evans has not performed so well on MTF's so far this season I still think he will be competitive against most of the other riders. It's Schleck and Contador he has to worry about most. I still have some doubts that Contador will be as good as usual in the time trial and Andy Schleck is not a convincing TT rider. Evans will also hope that Contador's and Schleck's team don't do a really good team time trial. In other words Evans will need some luck but I think he is overdue for some of that ! For me the TDF will be a lot more interesting than the Giro even though the Giro had a better route. Contador's dominance took the interest out of that race before the end of the second week. I found it entertaining but this TDF should be a much closer finish I hope. I think Gesink and VDB will also make the race a good one. We will see if Evans preparation changes improve his chances. I think they will. I just want to see everyone have their chances without serious falls, mechanicals etc but that might be asking too much. There are always hard luck stories for some of the GC riders. It's the nature of the sport.

I also expect to see more messing around with Contador and Schleck marking each other. Neither rider will be too helpful with each other after what happened last year. This can only help some of the other riders like Evans and Gesink etc....
 
Jun 12, 2011
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Evans doesn't have a chance-his best results came with Horner dragging him up the hills.Horner's on fire this year,and he ain't gonna wait around for Cadel.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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auscyclefan94 said:




Reminding you of what's to come in paris my fellow Cadel haters.
evans dropping and his whole team having to wait for him? I can see that happen for sure
 
Sep 10, 2009
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Does it really matter at this point? Between his mountain biking days and his road days, the guy's had a career that most cyclists would kill for. I'm sure he'd love to win the Tour as well, and it'd be a shame if he retired without at least one GT on his palmares, but it'd be more like the cherry on top of the cake.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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he will more go down as the eternal loser, bit like boogerd, he also won races but his 2nd and 3rd places overshadowed that.
 
dbrmuz said:
Evans doesn't have a chance-his best results came with Horner dragging him up the hills.Horner's on fire this year,and he ain't gonna wait around for Cadel.
Horner was only average in 2007, dropped very early on the final climbs (his best effort I think was Peyresourde?), if he made it. Evans climbed very well in 2007, even though he lost big time to Bertie and Chicken. If he could bring his 2007 form he would top3.
 
movingtarget said:
I also expect to see more messing around with Contador and Schleck marking each other. Neither rider will be too helpful with each other after what happened last year. This can only help some of the other riders like Evans and Gesink etc....
I'm also hoping for a more exciting race, but even with Mandy and Albertoe closely matched it will probably end up being another snoozefest.


Ferminal said:
Evans climbed very well in 2007, even though he lost big time to Bertie and Chicken. If he could bring his 2007 form he would top3.
Doubtful, IMO. Bottle climbed better than Evans in 2007. He lost one and a half minute to Evans in the Albi time trial, but there is no "early" time trial in this Tour. Which would have favored Evans - who almost always fades away in the third week...
 
18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Doubtful, IMO. Bottle climbed better than Evans in 2007. He lost one and a half minute to Evans in the Albi time trial, but there is no "early" time trial in this Tour. Which would have favored Evans - who almost always fades away in the second half of a GT...
Levi was inconsistent, nowhere on the Tignes stage. He was better in the Pyrenees when Evans blew on PdB and obviously solid when he dropped his teammate on Aubisque. Of the two I think Evans is more likely to be closer to his 07/08 level than Bottle, who I would have 4th in line at the Shack.
 
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Cuddles as a rider, almost all of it coming from his fantastic 2010. That being said, if his success or failure in the TdF turns NOT on his strengths but rather the failings of others or even worse luck, well then you are admitting he doesn't have much of a chance at all. His best TdF results have all come in years with the lots of ITT kilometers. This race has 42KM. That's simply not enough for a GC candidate of his caliber.

And can we abandon this notion of his fortunes turning on the strength of BMC in the mountains? They aren't strong and even if they were, Cuddles isn't strong enough in the mountains to put the hammer down and ride away from AC, the Brothers Schleck, Gesink, VDB, etc.
 
Publicus said:
And can we abandon this notion of his fortunes turning on the strength of BMC in the mountains? They aren't strong and even if they were, Cuddles isn't strong enough in the mountains to put the hammer down and ride away from AC, the Brothers Schleck, Gesink, VDB, etc.
It's a false argument, as no one has a teammate in this position unless they are your brother. The only way it could work is if all the other teams are weak and you can bluff like Szmyd/Nibali on Finestre, but this is the Tour...
 
Ryo Hazuki said:
he will more go down as the eternal loser, bit like boogerd, he also won races but his 2nd and 3rd places overshadowed that.

I would not rate Boogerd's career anywhere near as successful as Evans but I wouldn't call him a loser either. How many times were Poulidor and Zoetemelk placed in the TDF behind great riders like Anqeutil and Merckx. To say they were losers is also insulting to the great riders that beat them.

Zoetemelk won a World Title late in his career and won one TDF but was overshadowed by better riders. I don't care if Evans loses, I still admire him. Others can think what they like. He has a done a lot for Australian cycling and raising the sport's profile. His fans are entitled to hope, the same way that fans of Wiggins, Gesink, VDB are counting on them to do well. No one can say Evans lacks determination and heart. He will be battling away in July as usual, giving it his best.
 
Ferminal said:
Levi was inconsistent, nowhere on the Tignes stage. He was better in the Pyrenees when Evans blew on PdB and obviously solid when he dropped his teammate on Aubisque. Of the two I think Evans is more likely to be closer to his 07/08 level than Bottle, who I would have 4th in line at the Shack.
They were both inconsistent in the mountain stages, but Leipheimer was inconsistently better. ;)

He gained over 40 seconds on Evans overall. Cuddles could have maybe limited his losses on PdB, but still... in the mountains they were evenly matched at best. And that's being generous to Evans.

As for who is more likely to be closer to his 2007 level. I dunno, seems to me that the 2011 Evans is the better rider overall, by far, so in that sense YES, but then again he's become more of a hilly classics guy, and less of a climber and his time trialing has suffered as well.

Leipheimer on the other hand, was the only rider who could match an (IMO) on peak form Scarponi in Andorra this year. Excluding Albertoe, obv. So no, I wouldn't be surprised if Bottle dropped Cuddles on every MTF come July. But we'll have to see.

Not sure who is the best GT rider at the Shack. I wouldn't put my money on Brajkovic, that's for sure.
 
Sep 10, 2009
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Ryo Hazuki said:
he will more go down as the eternal loser, bit like boogerd, he also won races but his 2nd and 3rd places overshadowed that.
I think A Schleck is in more danger of that than is Evans ;)
 
May 13, 2009
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Do: nope. Die? that involves trying, like Scarponi blowing on first mountain of the Giro trying to follow Contador wheels... he won't do that either... he doesn't have the cojones to try. Instead expect endless hours on the road behind wheels.
 

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