Although not a wonderful TDF parcours for Cadel, I believe that he has some chance of winning it this year. He is potentially the 3rd strongest rider in the race, and Contador is coming off a hard Giro. Andy's form also has not been great, although that usually is the case with him.
Evans is remarkably consistent; and durable. How many GT's in recent years has he finished top 5 in? I've lost count. He is far from the best climber, but he usually limits his losses well, and against the clock he remains one of the best out of the GC guys. As has been noted by many, he also is strong on hill top finishers. We know that on best form he cannot get close to AC and AS, but perhaps we will have a GT where many of the GC guys are inconsistent and have bad days on important stages? If that happens then a rider finishing 5-10th, 1-2 minutes behind on each MTF, suddenly isn't out of the reckoning. Yes it's unlikely, but Evans winning the TDF this year is a chance. I think he is the best chance after the big two. Basso's problems also help Cadel's chances, at least for a podium.