Cadel can win the TdF. However as others have indicated, the stars will need to be in alignment. I rate him about a $13 chance FTW, $3 podium.
Cadel:
. cannot match accelerations of AC AS on the big climbs
. redlines in his determination to stay with the best (if he can/decides to tempo at OBLA, he will either catch up or minimize his losses)
. will probably compete hard in the Dauphine (this concerns me most of all...from a winning the TdF prospect) ...hope he is currently well short of his peak
. needs to be peaking for week 3... something he has not done recently.
If he wins the Dauphine great (no sarcasm intended).
Whatever, I hope he competes hard in the TdF but measures his effort with emphasis on the 3rd week.
If he fails (according to his/team's criteria) at TdF then I hope he reassesses his future GT plans.
Because he could be a superbe Classics competitor and team mentor.